TCU (3-2) at Wyoming (3-1) 2:00 PM
Why to watch:
While Wyoming rested last week, TCU
doubled up Colorado State, sending a
message to the rest of the league that
it doesn’t plan on fading out of
Mountain West contention this early in
the season. The Horned Frogs have
bounced back nicely from back-to-back
losses to Texas and Air Force with a
couple of stabilizing wins. As has been
the program’s calling card for years,
the mini-rebound has been fueled by Gary
Patterson’s suffocating defense.
Although TCU was a heavy preseason
favorite to win the conference, another
loss in league play could dump it into
an insurmountable ditch. If the Frogs
happen to slip out of the race, Wyoming
is capable of filling the void in the
pecking order. In many ways, the
Cowboys are a mirror image of this
week’s opponent, leaning heavily on a
stout defense and a steady running
game. Their only loss of the year came
at Boise State, and suddenly, that
opening day steamroll of 4-1 Virginia
looks extremely impressive. Why TCU might win: The healthy
return of RB Aaron Brown two weeks ago
has had an immediate impact on the Frog
offense. Arguably the most dangerous
offensive player in the conference, he’s
run for 216 yards on 33 carries since
returning, creating a spark that was
missing when he was on the shelf. Even
without DE Tommy Blake, the TCU defense
has been as good as advertised in 2007,
allowing less than 10 points a game to
teams not named Texas, while playing
air-tight pass defense. Wyoming QB
Karsten Sween has already thrown eight
picks, four versus Ohio two weeks ago,
and will be running for cover every
other time he drops back to pass. Why Wyoming might win: TCU’s
defense is terrific. Wyoming’s defense
just might be better. Despite having no
household names, the Cowboys are fourth
in the country in total defense,
allowing only 248 yards a game. On
third down, no unit in the nation has
been stingier, and in the red zone, the
opposition has gone just 3-of-13 scoring
touchdowns. The Frogs’ woes on offense
are about to get worse. While they’re
averaging just 20 points a game, Brown
is getting no help from a passing game
that wasn’t able to solve SMU two weeks
ago. A deep thigh bruise to starting QB
Andy Dalton will only make a dire
situation worse. Who to watch: On offense, this
game will be decided by the backs.
While TCU has Brown, Wyoming has the
lesser known, but equally effective
tandem of Wynel Seldon and Devin Moore.
The pair complements each other
extremely well with Seldon picking up
the tough yards between the tackles and
Moore flashing the speed and quickness
to get to the outside for big plays. In
a game that figures to be very physical,
the Cowboys are going to benefit by
having fresh legs to insert into the
lineup. What will happen: Don’t plan on
much offense, especially since the
forecast in Laramie calls for a stiff
wind and the chance of rain or snow
showers. The Wyoming defense will make
Brown look ordinary, while creating the
turnover that sets up the go-ahead score
in an old-school brawl. CFN Prediction:
Wyoming
22 … TCU 16...
Line: Wyoming -3 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
3.5
Mountain West Friday, Oct. 5
Utah (2-3) at Louisville (3-2)
8:00 EST, ESPN
Why to watch:
Now that Louisville has snapped its
two-game losing streak with a
stop-the-bleeding victory over NC State,
can it get back to being a factor in the
competitive Big East? To do so, the
Cardinals will need to prove that
holding the Pack to 10 points and
creating five turnovers last Saturday
wasn’t only a result of facing one of
the ACC’s most impotent offenses.
They’ll get a much better test this
Friday from Utah and QB Brian Johnson,
who returned to action last week in a
34-18 win over Utah State after
suffering a shoulder separation in the
opener with Oregon State. Best of luck
getting a good read on this year’s Utes,
which have been good enough to crush No.
25 UCLA 44-6, yet disturbingly bad
enough to get shut out by UNLV a week
later. Why Utah might win: Although a
few tinkers with the Louisville front
seemed to make a difference last
weekend, no one should be convinced that
the Cardinal defense has suddenly turned
the corner. This is still the same
undisciplined unit that’s last in the
Big East in pass defense, and allowed an
average of 40 points in a three-game
stretch with Middle Tennessee, Kentucky,
and Syracuse. If last week shook off
the remaining rust due to inactivity,
Johnson is a difference-maker behind
center that’s dynamic enough to carry
Utah to the upset. Plus, he’s going to
enjoy support from the running game and
Darrell Mack, a physical runner who’s
rushed for 328 yards since becoming a
regular three games ago. The Ute’s
ninth-ranked pass defense will keep
Brian Brohm from going wild through the
air, especially if top receiver Harry
Douglas is a scratch for a second
straight week. Why Louisville might win: Brohm
may not have a career day against an
underrated Ute secondary, but he’s still
one of the nation’s premier
quarterbacks, so it’s not like he’ll be
shut down. The big offensive stars on
this night, however, will be the backs,
Anthony Allen, George Stripling, and
Brock Bolen. Aside from UCLA, which had
to abandon the run early, everyone has
run the ball on Utah’s soft interior
this season. The Utes are 96th
nationally in run defense, a ranking
that won’t improve against a Louisville
offense that grinded out at least 250
yards on the ground three separate times
in September. Who to watch: The move of
Louisville’s Earl Heyman from tackle to
end last week sparked a pass rush that
had been virtually non-existent through
the first four games of the 2007
season. Blessed with good quickness and
a hot motor, he must continue applying
pressure against a Utah line that’s
struggling with pass protection and is
weak at the tackle spot. What will happen: Utah will get
enough from Johnson and an improved
defense to make Louisville work hard for
all four quarters. The Cards, however,
will eventually wear out the Utes with a
steady diet of Allen and Bolen between
the tackles, and a couple of scoring
strikes from Brohm. CFN Prediction: Louisville 34 …
Utah 24
... Line:
Louisville -14.5 Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
3
Mountain West Saturday, Oct. 6
San Diego State (1-3) at
Colorado State (0-4) 5:30 PM Why to watch: Might
Colorado State be the best 0-4
team in the country? It’s not
something Sonny Lubick wants to
add to his résumé, but close
calls with Colorado, Cal,
Houston, and TCU are an
indication that the Rams are
better than their record and
still capable of doing some
damage in the Mountain West.
Kyle Bell has the potential to
be the league’s best back, but
not if he doesn’t start getting
more support from the offensive
line. San Diego State took its
share of lumps in the first
month of the season, playing a
rugged schedule that included
two currently ranked teams and a
third opponent from the Pac-10.
If the Aztecs are making
progress in Chuck Long’s second
year on the Mesa, it’s in ways
that are undetectable in the
standings or box scores. Why San Diego State might win:
The Aztecs will always have a
chance for the upset provided
Kevin O’Connell is calling
signals. A big drop-back passer
with the league’s highest passer
rating, he also shows surprising
speed outside the pocket.
O’Connell will stay hot against
a Colorado State defense that
ranks last in the Mountain West,
and is in danger of being
without two of its most
consistent players, safeties
Mike Pagnotta and Klint Kubiak. Why Colorado State might win:
Before facing TCU, the Rams
offense was playing with balance
and consistently moving the
chains. It’ll revert back to
that style of play against a San
Diego State defense that’s
loaded with holes and giving up
534 yards a game. While Bell is
about to regain his 100-yard
form, care-free QB Caleb Hanie
will have his most productive
game of the season, hooking up
with WR Damon Morton for at
least one play of more than 40
yards. Who to watch: Bell’s
return from last year’s
devastating knee injury has been
a mixed bag through four games.
After opening with 237 yards and
three scores against Colorado
and Cal, he’s been stuffed by
Houston and TCU for just 82
yards on 30 carries. Eager to
get back on track, San Diego
State is an ideal opponent for
Bell to deliver the type of
150-yard, two-touchdown output
that’ll be reminiscent of his
sophomore season. What will happen: Hungry
for its first win of the 2007
season, Colorado State will pig
out on a San Diego State team
that has too many problems on
defense to keep this game close
after halftime. CFN Prediction Colorado
State 35 …
San
Diego State 21
...
Line: Colorado State -13 Must See Rating: (5 Paris
on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee)
... 2
UNLV (2-3) at Air Force (3-2)
9:00 EST
Why to watch:
After busting out of the gate
with a 3-0 start, the air has
begun seeping out of Air Force.
The Falcons took it on the chin
at BYU, 31-6, and lost for the
fifth straight time at rival
Navy on Saturday, making the
return home to Colorado a
much-needed break in the
schedule. The Academy will be
looking to regain its early
season mojo when UNLV comes to
town this Saturday night. The
Rebels have been competitive in
all but the Hawaii game, even
taking Wisconsin down to the
wire in the second week of the
season. There have been signs
of progress this year from a
program that’s been
uncharacteristically good on
defense and in the running
game. With a road upset, Mike
Sanford’s kids will join BYU as
the only 2-0 team in Mountain
West Conference play. Why UNLV might win:
Strong defense and a physical
running game is not a bad
formula for success at this
level. Led by LB Beau Bell, a
certain draft choice next April,
the Rebels are only allowing 127
rushing yards and 22 points a
game. They pursue very quickly
in all directions, an important
trait when going up against the
prolific Air Force ground game.
UNLV has been good enough
defending the run this season to
force run-first QB Shaun Carney
and the Falcon passing game to
make plays on third-and-long.
Frank Summers has bulled his way
to 418 yards rushing and four
touchdowns this year, giving the
Rebels a rare presence between
the tackles. Why Air Force might win:
UNLV may slow down the Falcon
running game, but it’s not going
to stop it. Air Force leads the
Mountain West and is 13th
nationally in rushing, getting
contributions from Carney, Chad
Hall, and Jim Ollis. While it
has a penchant for being
relentless on opposing defenses,
Carney has also made big strides
as a passer this season.
Defensively, LB Drew Fowler and
the rest of the Falcons will get
after freshman QB Travis Dixon,
pressuring him into poor
decisions and unforced errors. Who to watch: Fowler vs.
Summers is a
game-within-the-game that could
go 15 rounds. Fowler is an
instinctive run-stopper that
leads the Falcons with 42
tackles, but Summers is a
240-load that sheds arm tackles
effortlessly. The winner of
this undercard will also lead
his team to victory. What will happen: Getting
back to Falcon Stadium is going
to really benefit Air Force,
which didn’t look very competent
on the road. The Falcons will
methodically grind out a win,
getting 200 yards on the ground
and a solid performance from the
defense. CFN Prediction:
Air
Force 28 … UNLV 20
...
Line: Air Force -5.5 Must See Rating: (5 Paris
on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee)
... 2
