MWC Fearless Predictions, Oct. 6

Previews and Predictions for the Week 6 MWC Games.

Mountain West
Air Force | BYU | Colorado State | New Mexico
San Diego State | TCU | UNLV | Utah | Wyoming

MWest Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24

How are the picks so far? SU: 29-7 ... ATS: 15-17-1

Mountain West Fearless Predictions, Week Five, Part 2

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Mountain West Game of the Week

TCU (3-2) at Wyoming (3-1)   2:00 PM
Why to watch: While Wyoming rested last week, TCU doubled up Colorado State, sending a message to the rest of the league that it doesn’t plan on fading out of Mountain West contention this early in the season.  The Horned Frogs have bounced back nicely from back-to-back losses to Texas and Air Force with a couple of stabilizing wins.  As has been the program’s calling card for years, the mini-rebound has been fueled by Gary Patterson’s suffocating defense.  Although TCU was a heavy preseason favorite to win the conference, another loss in league play could dump it into an insurmountable ditch.  If the Frogs happen to slip out of the race, Wyoming is capable of filling the void in the pecking order.  In many ways, the Cowboys are a mirror image of this week’s opponent, leaning heavily on a stout defense and a steady running game.  Their only loss of the year came at Boise State, and suddenly, that opening day steamroll of 4-1 Virginia looks extremely impressive.
Why TCU might win: The healthy return of RB Aaron Brown two weeks ago has had an immediate impact on the Frog offense.  Arguably the most dangerous offensive player in the conference, he’s run for 216 yards on 33 carries since returning, creating a spark that was missing when he was on the shelf.  Even without DE Tommy Blake, the TCU defense has been as good as advertised in 2007, allowing less than 10 points a game to teams not named Texas, while playing air-tight pass defense.  Wyoming QB Karsten Sween has already thrown eight picks, four versus Ohio two weeks ago, and will be running for cover every other time he drops back to pass.
Why Wyoming might win: TCU’s defense is terrific.  Wyoming’s defense just might be better.  Despite having no household names, the Cowboys are fourth in the country in total defense, allowing only 248 yards a game.  On third down, no unit in the nation has been stingier, and in the red zone, the opposition has gone just 3-of-13 scoring touchdowns.  The Frogs’ woes on offense are about to get worse.  While they’re averaging just 20 points a game, Brown is getting no help from a passing game that wasn’t able to solve SMU two weeks ago.  A deep thigh bruise to starting QB Andy Dalton will only make a dire situation worse.
Who to watch: On offense, this game will be decided by the backs.  While TCU has Brown, Wyoming has the lesser known, but equally effective tandem of Wynel Seldon and Devin Moore.  The pair complements each other extremely well with Seldon picking up the tough yards between the tackles and Moore flashing the speed and quickness to get to the outside for big plays.  In a game that figures to be very physical, the Cowboys are going to benefit by having fresh legs to insert into the lineup.
What will happen: Don’t plan on much offense, especially since the forecast in Laramie calls for a stiff wind and the chance of rain or snow showers.  The Wyoming defense will make Brown look ordinary, while creating the turnover that sets up the go-ahead score in an old-school brawl.
CFN Prediction: Wyoming 22 … TCU 16... Line: Wyoming -3
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 3.5   

Mountain West Friday, Oct. 5

Utah (2-3) at Louisville (3-2) 8:00 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: Now that Louisville has snapped its two-game losing streak with a stop-the-bleeding victory over NC State, can it get back to being a factor in the competitive Big East?  To do so, the Cardinals will need to prove that holding the Pack to 10 points and creating five turnovers last Saturday wasn’t only a result of facing one of the ACC’s most impotent offenses.  They’ll get a much better test this Friday from Utah and QB Brian Johnson, who returned to action last week in a 34-18 win over Utah State after suffering a shoulder separation in the opener with Oregon State.  Best of luck getting a good read on this year’s Utes, which have been good enough to crush No. 25 UCLA 44-6, yet disturbingly bad enough to get shut out by UNLV a week later.
Why Utah might win: Although a few tinkers with the Louisville front seemed to make a difference last weekend, no one should be convinced that the Cardinal defense has suddenly turned the corner.  This is still the same undisciplined unit that’s last in the Big East in pass defense, and allowed an average of 40 points in a three-game stretch with Middle Tennessee, Kentucky, and Syracuse.  If last week shook off the remaining rust due to inactivity, Johnson is a difference-maker behind center that’s dynamic enough to carry Utah to the upset.  Plus, he’s going to enjoy support from the running game and Darrell Mack, a physical runner who’s rushed for 328 yards since becoming a regular three games ago.  The Ute’s ninth-ranked pass defense will keep Brian Brohm from going wild through the air, especially if top receiver Harry Douglas is a scratch for a second straight week.
Why Louisville might win: Brohm may not have a career day against an underrated Ute secondary, but he’s still one of the nation’s premier quarterbacks, so it’s not like he’ll be shut down.  The big offensive stars on this night, however, will be the backs, Anthony Allen, George Stripling, and Brock Bolen.  Aside from UCLA, which had to abandon the run early, everyone has run the ball on Utah’s soft interior this season.  The Utes are 96^th nationally in run defense, a ranking that won’t improve against a Louisville offense that grinded out at least 250 yards on the ground three separate times in September.
Who to watch: The move of Louisville’s Earl Heyman from tackle to end last week sparked a pass rush that had been virtually non-existent through the first four games of the 2007 season.  Blessed with good quickness and a hot motor, he must continue applying pressure against a Utah line that’s struggling with pass protection and is weak at the tackle spot.
What will happen: Utah will get enough from Johnson and an improved defense to make Louisville work hard for all four quarters.  The Cards, however, will eventually wear out the Utes with a steady diet of Allen and Bolen between the tackles, and a couple of scoring strikes from Brohm.
CFN Prediction: Louisville 34 … Utah 24 ... Line: Louisville -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 3

Mountain West Saturday, Oct. 6

San Diego State (1-3) at Colorado State (0-4)   5:30 PM
Why to watch: Might Colorado State be the best 0-4 team in the country?  It’s not something Sonny Lubick wants to add to his résumé, but close calls with Colorado, Cal, Houston, and TCU are an indication that the Rams are better than their record and still capable of doing some damage in the Mountain West.  Kyle Bell has the potential to be the league’s best back, but not if he doesn’t start getting more support from the offensive line.  San Diego State took its share of lumps in the first month of the season, playing a rugged schedule that included two currently ranked teams and a third opponent from the Pac-10.  If the Aztecs are making progress in Chuck Long’s second year on the Mesa, it’s in ways that are undetectable in the standings or box scores.
Why San Diego State might win: The Aztecs will always have a chance for the upset provided Kevin O’Connell is calling signals.  A big drop-back passer with the league’s highest passer rating, he also shows surprising speed outside the pocket.  O’Connell will stay hot against a Colorado State defense that ranks last in the Mountain West, and is in danger of being without two of its most consistent players, safeties Mike Pagnotta and Klint Kubiak.
Why Colorado State might win: Before facing TCU, the Rams offense was playing with balance and consistently moving the chains.  It’ll revert back to that style of play against a San Diego State defense that’s loaded with holes and giving up 534 yards a game.  While Bell is about to regain his 100-yard form, care-free QB Caleb Hanie will have his most productive game of the season, hooking up with WR Damon Morton for at least one play of more than 40 yards.
Who to watch: Bell’s return from last year’s devastating knee injury has been a mixed bag through four games.  After opening with 237 yards and three scores against Colorado and Cal, he’s been stuffed by Houston and TCU for just 82 yards on 30 carries.  Eager to get back on track, San Diego State is an ideal opponent for Bell to deliver the type of 150-yard, two-touchdown output that’ll be reminiscent of his sophomore season.
What will happen: Hungry for its first win of the 2007 season, Colorado State will pig out on a San Diego State team that has too many problems on defense to keep this game close after halftime.
CFN Prediction Colorado State 35 … San Diego State 21 ... Line: Colorado State -13
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 2

UNLV (2-3) at Air Force (3-2)  9:00 EST
Why to watch: After busting out of the gate with a 3-0 start, the air has begun seeping out of Air Force.  The Falcons took it on the chin at BYU, 31-6, and lost for the fifth straight time at rival Navy on Saturday, making the return home to Colorado a much-needed break in the schedule.  The Academy will be looking to regain its early season mojo when UNLV comes to town this Saturday night.  The Rebels have been competitive in all but the Hawaii game, even taking Wisconsin down to the wire in the second week of the season.  There have been signs of progress this year from a program that’s been uncharacteristically good on defense and in the running game.  With a road upset, Mike Sanford’s kids will join BYU as the only 2-0 team in Mountain West Conference play.
Why UNLV might win: Strong defense and a physical running game is not a bad formula for success at this level.  Led by LB Beau Bell, a certain draft choice next April, the Rebels are only allowing 127 rushing yards and 22 points a game.  They pursue very quickly in all directions, an important trait when going up against the prolific Air Force ground game.  UNLV has been good enough defending the run this season to force run-first QB Shaun Carney and the Falcon passing game to make plays on third-and-long.  Frank Summers has bulled his way to 418 yards rushing and four touchdowns this year, giving the Rebels a rare presence between the tackles.
Why Air Force might win: UNLV may slow down the Falcon running game, but it’s not going to stop it.  Air Force leads the Mountain West and is 13^th nationally in rushing, getting contributions from Carney, Chad Hall, and Jim Ollis.  While it has a penchant for being relentless on opposing defenses, Carney has also made big strides as a passer this season.  Defensively, LB Drew Fowler and the rest of the Falcons will get after freshman QB Travis Dixon, pressuring him into poor decisions and unforced errors.
Who to watch: Fowler vs. Summers is a game-within-the-game that could go 15 rounds.  Fowler is an instinctive run-stopper that leads the Falcons with 42 tackles, but Summers is a 240-load that sheds arm tackles effortlessly.  The winner of this undercard will also lead his team to victory.
What will happen: Getting back to Falcon Stadium is going to really benefit Air Force, which didn’t look very competent on the road.  The Falcons will methodically grind out a win, getting 200 yards on the ground and a solid performance from the defense.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 28 … UNLV 20 ... Line: Air Force -5.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 2