MWC Fearless Predictions, Oct. 20

Previews and Predictions for the Week 8 MWC Games.

Mountain West
Air Force | BYU | Colorado State | New Mexico
San Diego State | TCU | UNLV | Utah | Wyoming

MWest Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 |  Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24  

How are the picks so far? SU: 34-11 ... ATS: 18-22-2

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Mountain West Game of the Week

Utah (4-3) at TCU (4-3)  8:00 EST
Why to watch: If either Utah or TCU is to have any slim hope of staying alive in the Mountain West Conference, it had better win Thursday night’s game in Fort Worth.  At a minimum, even if the league title becomes out of reach, the winner of this game will get a sizable leg up in the race to land one of the conference’s automatic bowl bids.  The Utes enter the game hot, winners of three straight behind a balanced offense and an improving defensive unit.  Although Utah has been decimated by injuries this fall, it’s regrouped, while regaining the services of playmaking QB Brian Johnson.  The Horned Frogs lacked consistency during the first half of the year, playing without star DE Tommy Blake and never coming close to the lofty preseason projections that tailed them in August.  Still, TCU is coming off an inspired win over Stanford that it hopes can be a springboard to improved play over the next five games.  As should be expected of the unpredictable Frogs last Saturday, the offense finally broke out of its season-long slump, but the defense had its worst day of the year.
Why Utah might win: Since Johnson got back in the huddle three weeks ago, the Utes have beaten Utah State, Louisville, and San Diego State, averaging 470 yards and 34 points a game.  Plus, the threat of a passing has opened up lanes for RB Darrell Mack, who’s rumbled for more than 100 yards in all three games to go from a backup to the league’s No. 2 rusher.  If Utah can turn this game into a shootout, TCU doesn’t have the zip on offense to keep pace.  The Frogs are also a serious turnover liability, losing more fumbles than any team in the country.
Why TCU might win: Even without Blake and after allowing 36 points to Stanford, the Frogs still boast a nasty, fundamentally-sound defense that can get after the quarterback with DE Chase Ortiz and ball hawk as well as any team in the conference.  TCU leads the Mountain West in sacks, pass efficiency defense, and picks, so Utah’s run of offensive success is about to come to an end.  All-league RB Aaron Brown should find daylight against a Ute run defense that’s struggled with power running games this season.
Who to watch: Was last week QB Andy Dalton’s coming-out party for TCU?  The Frogs are banking on it because without any support from the passing game, opposing defenses are finding it easier to contain Brown.  Dalton was sharp on the Farm, going 23-of-34 for a career-high 344 yards and two touchdowns, adding another score on the ground.  To keep the momentum going, the freshman will have to bring his best against a Utah pass defense that’s only allowed three touchdowns to quarterbacks not named Brian Brohm. 
What will happen: This might not be the be-all-end-all showdown many thought it’d be at the beginning of the year, but it’ll still be entertaining. From start to finish, it’ll be a nip-and-tuck game dominated by the defenses and the running backs.  Brown will get the better of Mack, rushing for 125 yards and a score in a pivotal win for TCU.
CFN Prediction: TCU 27 … Utah 21 ... Line: TCU -2
Must See Rating: (5 Keeping Up with the Kardashians - 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 3

Mountain West Saturday, Oct. 20

Wyoming (4-2) at Air Force (5-2)   2:00 p.m
Why to Watch: If you’re a fan of the running game, then this is the place for you. The Falcons, as always, are among the nation’s best in that department, while Wyoming boasts top-flight back Devin Moore as the key component of its offense. The Falcons hope to use that ground attack to keep moving closer toward the top of the Mountain West standings, while Wyoming is hoping to climb out of the middle morass and establish itself as a first-division club.
Why Wyoming Might Win: The Cowboys have the talent to beat anyone in the MWC on both sides of the ball, provided they keep the mistakes to a minimum. Moore averages 100 yards a game and showed true breakaway potential by pounding Ohio for 198, while Karsten Sween is an efficient passer who has completed 61.7% of his passes this year. But the big reason to side with Wyoming is its run defense, which allows just 95.8 yards a game and could turn the game to the Cowboy side if it can slow down the Falcon option attack.
Why Air Force Might Win: Sure, the Cowboys have stuffed the run to this point, but they haven’t seen anything like the Falcon attack, which is fifth overall in the country. If Chad Hall isn’t breaking lose, like he has the past two weeks, then QB Shaun Carney or halfback Ryan Williams is piling up the yards. Air Force will also test Wyoming with its trademark discipline, something that could cause a big problem for a Cowboy team that is 90^th in the nation in turnover margin. Air Force, meanwhile, has a stout plus-6 margin and could be especially troublesome for Sween, who has thrown nine interceptions this year.
Who to Watch: Hall was a halfback last year when he became the first player at that position to lead the Falcons in rushing in 12 years. This season, he’s spent plenty of time at receiver, but still gets plenty of opportunities to carry the ball. He took full advantage last week by gaining 256 yards and scoring four times in the win over Colorado State after cranking out 169 yards and two scores against UNLV. It wasn’t a bad two-game stretch for someone who had managed just 158 yards and three scores in the previous five contests.
What Will Happen: Wyoming may hold down the Falcon attack for a while, but the Falcons are too efficient and too productive on both sides of the ball to let the momentum stop now.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 24 … Wyoming 16 ... Line: Air Force -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 Keeping Up with the Kardashians - 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 2.5

Eastern Washington (4-2) at BYU (4-2)   5:30 p.m
Why to Watch: Bombs away. The Cougars have the sixth-best passing attack among the FBSers, while the Eagles are fifth among the FCSers. Obviously there’s a disparity in overall talent, but there will be plenty of fireworks, lots and lots of passing, and a ton of big numbers. Add in the fact that 22^nd-ranked Eastern Washington is a quasi-respectable 7-14 against FBS teams during its history, and there’s the possibility for some drama. At least until the BYU running game takes over.
Why Eastern Washington Might Win: The Eagles are among FCS’s best in many offensive categories, including total offense (third) and passing. It all starts with sophomore QB Matt Nichols, who’s great at utilizing the variety of weapons at his disposal, most notably backs Dale Morris and Alexis Alexander, who have combined for nine touchdowns, and receiver Aaron Boyce, who has averaged 15.6 yards on his 46 receptions and has scored five times. The Eagles are also an opportunistic bunch, and their plus-2.5 turnover ratio is the best in FCS. That could be a factor against BYU QB Max Hall, who has tossed nine picks so far this year, including three last week against UNLV. Look out for junior end Greg Peach, who has seven sacks this year and will take aim at a BYU front that allows 2.2 a game.
Why BYU Might Win: The Eagles can toss it around, but they don’t do a great job stopping others who take to the air. Eastern Washington is 110^th among FCS teams in pass defense. Hall has cooled a little since his 537-yard outburst against Tulsa earlier this year, but that’s partly because of the emergence of the running game and Harvey Unga, who had a season-high 177 yards against UNLV and boasts three 100-yard games this year. And though Eastern has been potent, particularly in the last three weeks, BYU has tightened its defense up of late, allowing 14.7 points per game in the last three games.
Who to Watch: Last year, Nichols threw a school-record 17 interceptions, something that has changed considerably this season. Through six games, the sophomore has tossed just three while still passing an awful lot. Two weeks ago, against Montana, he set school records for completions (37) and yards (451). The previous Saturday, he threw for 363 against Portland State. In last week’s upset of 11^th-ranked Montana State, Nichols had 300 yards of total offense.
What Will Happen: Eastern Washington may make it interesting for a little while, and will keep bombing away enough to keep the pressure on, but BYU will roll up more than 500 yards with a balanced attack to win with relative ease.
CFN Prediction: BYU 41 … Eastern Washington 17... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Keeping Up with the Kardashians - 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 1.5

New Mexico (4-2) at San Diego State (2-4)   8:30 p.m   CSTV
Why to Watch: Both teams enter the game with 1-1 Mountain West records, so the loser will likely be dropped from serious title consideration and will have work to do to get to a bowl. San Diego State has lots five straight to the Lobos and is in desperate need of a big game to turn the season around. A win over Colorado State two weeks ago was nice, but beating New Mexico would be a whole bunch better to kick off a three-game homestand.
Why New Mexico Might Win: The Lobos aren’t spinning scoreboards like Texas Tech, but they’re scoring 30.2 ppg and have a balanced attack that should feast on the shaky (115^th overall) Aztec defense. The ground assault is led by Rodney Ferguson, who has already scored eight touchdowns this year, while Donovan Porterie has completed 65.1% of his throws and has only been picked off three times, a good sign against SDSU, which has a plus-six turnover margin. New Mexico will also force the Aztecs into some third-and-long situations with their 12^th-rated ground defense, which will take aim at SDSU’s unproductive running game.
Why San Diego State Might Win: The Aztecs have given up some big point totals this year, but in three of the past four weeks have been able to control teams a bit more, surrendering 20 ppg, 11.8 fewer than their season average. One reason for that is junior linebacker Russell Allen, a productive tackler who’s been one of the few bright spots on one of the nation’s worst defenses. If SDSU is to keep up with New Mexico’s potent attack, it needs Kevin O’Connell to hook up with Swain, who’s averaging 20 yards per reception and who has had a couple big games so far.
Who to Watch: When kicker John Sullivan tore his left ACL trying to make a tackle during spring drills, many believed that was the end of a journey that included a transfer from San Jose State and an arduous walk-on “career” that included no placement opportunities during his first three seasons at New Mexico. But Sullivan rehabbed his knee without surgery and has made 13-of-15 field goals this year, including all three from beyond 40 yards. Sullivan’s only two misses came in the opener, and he has made 12 placement attempts in a row since then.
What Will Happen: San Diego State is getting better, but it can’t hang with the balanced Lobos.
CFN Prediction: New Mexico 28 … San Diego State 13 ... Line: New Mexico -8
Must See Rating: (5 Keeping Up with the Kardashians - 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 2

Colorado State (0-6) at UNLV (2-5)   9:00 p.m
Why to Watch: Though neither team has been very good – coming in at a combined 2-12 – there’s a compelling storyline brewing at CSU, where 70-year old coach Sonny Lubick, who’s signed through the 2009 season, has admitted that the program’s 13-game losing streak has led to him to consider retiring after this year. It will be interesting to see if Lubick’s players rally around him, or if they revert to the form which led to last week’s 45-21 loss to Air Force. UNLV, meanwhile, is trying to snap a three-game losing streak and improve its 2-5 record, although it has played some good competition closely this year.
Why Colorado State Might Win: Although last week’s loss looked bad on paper, Colorado State wasn’t overwhelmed; it fell prey to a pile of mistakes. Had it stayed away from turnovers and some missed assignments deep in AFA territory, CSU would have made things much closer. Despite the loss, it appears as if the Rams found an option at running back, besides veteran Kyle Bell, with junior Gartrell Johnson rushed for 143 yards and a touchdown. Together, those two should help the Rams take advantage of a UNLV run defense that ranks 76^th nationally. CSU will also be looking to create trouble for Rebels’ quarterback Travis Dixon with a defense that’s 17^th nationally in yards allowed through the air.
Why UNLV Might Win: The Rebels will take aim at the CSU run defense, which is ranked 109^th and gave up 385 yards last week. That means plenty of work for Frank Summers, who had his streak of three straight 100-yard games snapped last week in the loss to BYU. When the Rebels go to the air, they’ll focus on Ryan Wolfe, whose 41 receptions include ten against Air Force. Although UNLV’s defense isn’t strong, Lubick praised several of the Rebel defenders, most notably big-tackling linebackers Beau Bell and Starr Fuimaono. And should CSU quarterback Caleb Hanie struggle throwing like he did last week (three interceptions in the first half), UNLV will be more than able to take advantage with a defense that forces plenty of mistakes.
Who to Watch: If Dixon puts it all together, he’s going to be an impressive weapon for UNLV. The multi-talented redshirt freshman has already displayed a halfback’s talent by rushing for 129 yards against Utah State and demonstrated his ability to strafe enemy defenses through the air when he amassed 274 passing yards against Air Force. He has been inconsistent and has six interceptions versus just four touchdowns, but Dixon has the potential to be one of the league’s top signal-callers down the road.
What Will Happen: Last week was supposed to be the game in which Colorado State broke through, but it didn’t happen. Make it yet another frustrating week, as the UNLV defense, most notably Bell, will stop the Ram running game, Hanie will throw a few picks, and the Rebel offense will take advantage.
CFN Prediction: UNLV 26 … Colorado State 20 ... Line: UNLV -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 Keeping Up with the Kardashians - 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 1.5