Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Sept. 8

While the NFL opener might take center stage, there's a good college matchup to pay attention to when Yvenson Bernard and Oregon State looks to come up with a big win over Cincinnati.

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 10-0 ... ATS: 8-2

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Week Two, Part 2

Pac 10 Game of the Week

Oregon (1-0) at Michigan (0-1)  3:30 PM ABC
Why to Watch: If you weren't interested in this matchup before, you certainly are now. A national punchline after the epic loss to Appalachian State, this is the first game of the rest of Michigan's life. Call it Game One A.A.S. The entire program is on the line as a loss to the Ducks might speed up the Lloyd Carr retirement process, while further crushing the current reputation of the former Leaders and the Best. A loss would mark the first time since 1990 that the program has lost back-to-back home dates. Oregon also has a few reputation issues to deal with despite blowing past a decent Houston team in the opening weekend. The Ducks fell off the map over the final four games of last year, and a win over Michigan in the Big House, even a reeling Michigan, would still mean something special for the program as well as the Pac 10. Oregon won the last meeting between the two, a 31-27 thriller in 2003, but lost its following three games, while Michigan went on to play USC in the Rose Bowl.
Why Oregon Might Win: If Appalachian State could do that with a mobile quarterback and speedy skill players, it's possible that Dennis Dixon and the Duck speedsters could blow past the Michigan defense like it was standing still. The Wolverines didn't tackle, were woefully out of position, and generally looked lost all game long. Dixon tore off 141 yards against the Cougars last week and will be sure to test the Wolverine front seven from the start. Defensively, the Ducks have a secondary just good enough to force Michigan to become one-dimensional for stretches, however ...
Why Michigan Might Win: ... that one dimension will dominate. The Oregon front seven can be shoved around and blown past. Michigan might not have a blur of a runner like Houston's Anthony Alridge (who tore off 205 of Houston's 315 rushing yards), but Mike Hart will certainly get his share of carries to let the big Wolverine O line get into a lather. This will be a very, very angry team coming out of the tunnel, and it's sure to be physical from the opening snap. Oregon will have Michigan's full attention; there will be no looking ahead to Notre Dame.
Who to Watch: LB Shawn Crable and SS Jamar Adams. These are two of Michigan's all-star caliber defenders, and they were supposed to be the leaders and stars to revolve the rebuilt defense around. Adams is a big hitter who seemed a step off time and again when it came to providing help last week, even though he came up with seven tackles, and Crable led the way with ten stops. These two must play better to keep Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart from breaking off the long runs that ASU QB Armanti Edwards was able to tear off.
What Will Happen: Now we really find out if Michigan is any good. There aren't any excuses now about focus or concentration. Either this was the team everyone thought belonged among the top five in America, or it gets further exposed as a mighty fraud. It's a combination of the two. The offense will make up for the defense's continued woes with Hart running for 200 yards on the way to a tight win. Expect plenty of fireworks on both sides of the ball.
CFN Prediction: Michigan 38 ... Oregon 30... Line:  Michigan -6
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 4.5
Final Score: 

Pac 10 Thursday, September 6

Oregon State (1-0) at Cincinnati (1-0)  7:30 p.m. ESPN
Why to watch: One-sided opening day wins by both Oregon State and Cincinnati have made this first-ever meeting between the schools a little more intriguing than when schedules were first released.  The Beavers toughed out a 24-7 win over a battered Utah team, getting a great game from the defense and an MVP-type effort from RB Yvenson Bernard.  A rare road trip to the Eastern Time Zone will answer questions about an Oregon State offense that still hasn’t decided whether Sean Canfield or Lyle Moevao is capable of handling the quarterback job on a full-time basis.  Beating Southeast Missouri State was no great accomplishment for Cincinnati, but the way it did it was impressive.  In the debut of Brian Kelly’s new no-huddle attack, the Bearcats and new QB Ben Mauk rolled up more than 600 yards of offense for the first time in over two decades, a sign that the offensive personnel may not be such a bad fit for the system after all.  With a win over a quality Pac-10 team, the expectations in Kelly’s first season will change dramatically.  
Why Oregon State might win: The Beaver D represents a stark contrast to what Cincinnati witnessed last Thursday.  It’s a veteran group that creates turnovers, pressures the quarterback, and explodes on contact.  In the opener, Oregon State had five sacks and allowed just 196 yards to the usually potent Ute offense.  After roaming without resistance last week, the unproven Cincinnati receivers are about to experience a rude awakening from the likes of S Al Afalava, who sees wide-open passing offenses every week in the Pac-10.
Why Cincinnati might win: The Bearcats have a rugged defense of their own, which can stack the box on Bernard as long as the Beaver passing game continues to perform sporadically.  The return of All-Big East DT Terrill Byrd from a suspension coincides with the loss of All-Pac-10 G Jeremy Perry to injury, both of which will give an edge to the Cincy run defense.  If the fate of the Oregon State offense rests with either Canfield or Moevao, Bearcat CB Mike Mickens might catch more passes than any Beaver receiver.
Who to watch: Will he or won’t he play?  There are hints coming out of Corvallis that playmaking WR Sammie Stroughter could make an appearance this Thursday night after sitting out most of the last month for personal reasons.  He’s been practicing the last few days and will make the trip, which has the potential to be breaking news for the Beaver passing game and punt return team.  With his return, the Oregon State attack goes from dangerous to lethal, as he’ll open things up that much more for the ground game.
What will happen: Cincinnati is clearly headed in the right direction under Kelly, but Oregon State represents a step up in competition that the Bearcats aren’t quite ready to navigate.  The Beavers will get another workmanlike performance from Bernard and the defense, and an emotional lift from Stroughter to pick up another low-scoring, blue-collar victory.  
CFN Prediction:Oregon State 27 ... Cincinnati 16 ... Line: Oregon State -5
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 3
Final Score:   

Pac 10 Saturday, September 8

California (1-0) at Colorado State (0-1)  2:00 EST
Why to watch: One long year after enduring a public spanking at the hands of Tennessee, Cal got redemption with a 45-31 win over the Volunteers in Berkeley.  With so much emphasis put on that opener, will the Bears have anything left for a trip to Fort Collins to play a Mountain West opponent?  They better because the stakes have never been higher for a program that’s moved up two spots to No. 10 in the polls and is can start dreaming about a major bowl game for the first time since 1958.  The extra special part about Saturday’s win is that it was a total team effort.  Not only was the offense humming, but the defense and special teams also contributed touchdowns.  Cal’s not the only team in Hughes Stadium that needs to ward off a letdown this week.  Colorado State is feeling pretty bummed after dropping a game to rival Colorado in overtime that it led 28-17 in the second half.  The Rams played well enough to win and won just about every statistical category, but still came up short.  The silver lining in the loss was the return of RB Kyle Bell, who missed all of 2006 with a knee injury.
Why Cal might win: We’re only one game into the season, and Jeff Tedford’s offense already looks downright scary.  Justin Forsett appears more than capable of handling the role of every down back, and Nate Longshore was sharp in the win over Tennessee, going 19-of-28 for 241 yards and a pair of touchdowns.  After having some problems in Denver with Colorado’s Cody Hawkins and Demetrius Sumler, a couple of freshmen, the Rams will wilt in the face of the Bears’ speed and offensive diversity.
Why Colorado State might win: For Cal on Saturday night, it wasn’t all peaches and cream in Strawberry Canyon.  The defense allowed Arian Foster to average almost seven yards a carry and Erik Ainge to throw for 271 yards and three touchdowns.  While Foster and Ainge don’t play for Sonny Lubick, Ram QB Caleb Hanie is an efficient passer and Bell is one of the Mountain West’s toughest backs.  Against a Bear D that’s still adjusting to the loss of three all-stars, Hanie will find TE Kory Sperry and WR Johnny Walker often, while Bell controls the clock with 30 carries.
Who to watch: While Longshore, Forsett, and DeSean Jackson gobble up most of the headlines, Cal has some budding stars on defense who emerged last Saturday night.  LB Zack Follett is a truly disruptive playmaker, who set the tone for Saturday night’s win by nailing Ainge on the opening drive and forcing a fumble that Worrell Williams returned for a touchdown. He has to hit Bell early and often.
What will happen: Don’t be surprised if Cal is a little groggy for the first quarter of Saturday’s game. Fueled by the skill position players, the Bears will snap out of it early enough to get out of Colorado with a comfortable win.
CFN Prediction: California 41 … Colorado State 20 ... Line:  Cal -17
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 3
Final Score:

Boise State (1-0) at Washington (1-0) 3:30 EST
Why to watch: Fresh off its biggest win in years, a 42-12 rout at Syracuse, Washington has a chance for a defining moment this week against Boise State, owners of the nation’s longest winning streak.  Even after just one game, there’s no doubt the Huskies have come a long way since last year, but just how high is the ceiling for this team?  We’ll have a much better idea by Saturday evening.  While U-Dub bordered on flawless at the Carrier Dome, the big story was the play of new QB Jake Locker, whose performance looked anything but freshman-like.  For Boise State, even after capping an undefeated season with a Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma, it still wants to prove to the nation that it’s no gimmicky one-hit wonder.  This week’s trip to Seattle is the Broncos’ only game of the year versus a BCS opponent, so they’ve got to deliver an impressive win in order to maintain their impeccable national image.  Like Washington, Boise State has a new starting quarterback, Taylor Tharp, who was 14-of-19 for 184 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 56-7 disposal of Weber State.
Why Boise State might win: Sure, Washington can thwart the pitiful Syracuse offense, but the Broncos are a completely different animal that’ll run the ball effectively with Ian Johnson and challenge a young and beatable Husky secondary by spreading the ball around.  That Washington defensive line which looked so aggressive last Friday night will be rendered ordinary by a physical and vastly underrated Boise offensive line. Syracuse wasn’t remotely crisp on either side of the ball. Boise State will be sharp from the opening snap.
Why Washington might win: While it’s going to be tough for the Huskies to throw on a quality Boise State secondary, they will establish a north-south running game with a considerable size advantage on the interior.  At an average of 300 pounds, the Washington linemen will bully the smallish Broncos, creating space for RB Louis Rankin to bolt for long gainers.  Locker’s physical running style is a new dimension to the Husky offense that couldl wear out the Boise D in the second half.
Who to watch: In a game that will be dictated by the play in the trenches, no one will be more dominant than Boise State LT Ryan Clady, a future high draft choice that flies under the radar outside the west coast.  Both massive and light on his feet, it’ll be his responsibility to keep hard-charging ends Greyson Gunheim and Daniel Te’o-Nesheim out of Tharp’s grill.
What will happen: Not so fast, Washington.  No stranger to big games or big crowds, Boise State will bring the Huskies back to Earth and snap a 12-game road losing streak to BCS opponents.  Chris Peterson’s play-calling and Johnson’s speed will remind Husky fans that the defense remains a concern for 2007.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 34 … Washington 30 ... Line: Boise State -3
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 3.5
Final Score:

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Week Two, Part 2