Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Sept. 15

Previews and Predictions for the Week 3 Pac-10 Games.

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 |  Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 15-3 ... ATS: 11-6

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Week Three, Part 2

Pac 10 Game of the Week

USC (1-0) at Nebraska (2-0)  8:00 pm ABC
Why to Watch: In 2003, the Huskers went 10-3 with an Alamo Bowl win over Michigan State. That off-season, head coach Frank Solich, who coached his team to the national title game just two years earlier, was fired, mainly because the higher-ups had a sense that Nebraska football was slipping overall and needed a change to be among the elite of the elite of the elite. To many, this was the equivalent of Tiger Woods completely revamping his golf swing despite being the number one player in the world. To others, the idea of scrapping the devastating Nebraska rushing offense for some newfangled spread thing was like messing with their religion. Now, three years after the hiring of Bill Callahan, everything has built to this moment. Oh sure, playing in the Big 12 Championship last year was an important step, but this is bigger. Much bigger. This is to finally announce that Nebraska deserves to be considered a top program again, and a loss to USC, especially if it's not pretty, would be devastating in the development. For USC, it's another day, another end-of-the-world game for someone else. The nation's number one team now has some serious challengers after LSU and Oklahoma made their statements in big games. Now the Trojans have to do the same or risk possibly falling to third. This is only the fourth time the two powerhouses have played. USC is 2-0-1 with the last victory coming last season in Los Angeles.
Why USC Might Win: USC has become the nation's top superpower by being in the national title hunt every year, and it got to that point under head coach Pete Carroll by winning almost every big non-conference road game. 2006: USC 50, Arkansas 14. 2005: USC 34, Notre Dame 31. 2004: USC 24, Virginia Tech, 13. 2003: USC 23, Auburn 0. 2002: USC 40, Colorado 3 (but the Trojans lost the next week at Kansas State). This program thrives off the big road game and is hardly going to be fazed by Lincoln, Nebraska. On the field, USC should be able to keep QB John David Booty upright and clean. The Husker pass rush has been mediocre and inconsistent over the first two games, and to get to Booty, it's going to have to do something funky. That's what USC wants. Booty is good, but not Leinart-like, when it comes to making the right reads, and he's had two weeks to prepare for this.
Why Nebraska Might Win: Is USC battle tested? This is a relatively young team, even by USC's standards, that only had one tune up game against Idaho before getting two weeks off to prepare. While it might seem like a plus to have the time off to work, there's history working against the Trojans. USC has lost a mere three regular season games in the last four years, and two of them (to Oregon State last year and at Cal in 2003) came on the road after a two-week layoff. This hardly appeared to be a razor-sharp team against the Vandals in week one as it went through the motions on the way to the easy win. It's asking a lot, even for USC, to just turn it on and be USC with little time to work. Nebraska is coming into this game after getting two games of the best offensive line play its seen under Callahan, while the secondary has been terrific so far. If the Huskers can consistently protect Sam Keller, and keep Booty from bombing away, the running game should be able to take over. Last year's Husker team wasn't quite ready for primetime when it lost 28-10 to the Trojans. This year's team, especially after a tougher-than-you-think win at Wake Forest, appears to be ready, and all the parts seem to be working, with the possible exception of ...
Who to Watch: Sam Keller. The former Arizona State Sun Devil knows all too well what it's like to play USC, and his past sins could come back to be a major plus in the game preparation. In 2005 against the Trojans, he was red hot as he led ASU to a 21-3 halftime lead. LenDale White and the USC running game took over in the second half, Keller was picked off six times, and ASU lost 38-28. Going into the locker room at halftime, Keller gave a cocky interview that all but made it sound like ASU had already won. He's not going to make the same mistake twice. Even if Nebraska gets up early, Keller will have to keep the foot on the gas, but he can't force plays that aren't there. The running game has been the focal point so far, but even with the help, Keller has thrown three interceptions and two touchdown passes. Now he has to be mistake-free for the Huskers to pull this off.
What Will Happen: This is where all the bumps and bruises will come back to haunt USC. Safety Josh Pinkard is out for the year with a torn ACL, WR Patrick Turner is still getting over a shoulder injury, star OT Sam Baker has a rub problem, top RB Chauncey Washington has a sprained shoulder, and the list goes on. Of course USC has depth to spare, but it needs all its starters healthy and jelled to handle the jacked up Huskers. Nebraska isn't faster than USC, but it'll play with a bit more bounce in its step on the way to a decent early lead, and will then hang on late as Booty's final drive to win the game comes up just short.
CFN Prediction: Nebraska 27 ... USC 23 ... Line: USC -10
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 5

Pac 10 Saturday, Sept. 15

New Mexico (1-1) at Arizona (1-1)  10:00 PM
Why to watch: After flopping in its debut against BYU two weeks ago, Arizona’s new spread offense sprouted wings on Saturday night, producing 490 yards and a career-high five touchdown passes from Willie Tuitama.  The disclaimer, however, was that the opponent was Northern Arizona, so the Wildcats still have plenty to prove before being compared to some of the Pac-10’s elite offenses.  They’ve got one more game to fine-tune Sonny Dykes’ new system before opening the league schedule with a nasty trip to Cal, so this week’s visit is a must-win for a program hoping to play in December.  Like Arizona, New Mexico enjoyed an offensive wake-up call in Week 2 after misfiring in a 10-6 loss to UTEP in the opener.  The catalysts of a 44-34 win over rival New Mexico State were the Lobos big three of QB Donovan Porterie, RB Rodney Ferguson, and WR Marcus Smith.  Old border rivals that used to play for Kit Carson’s rifle, these two schools haven’t met in a decade.
Why New Mexico might win: It took a week of ineptitude, but the Lobos are beginning to look settled in their fourth offensive system in four years.  The passing of Porterie combined with the tough running of Ferguson gives New Mexico a balanced attack that’ll cause problems for Arizona Saturday night.  Despite returning ten starters from last year, the Wildcats have been beatable through the air and had only one sack in their other date with a Mountain West team.
Why Arizona might win: The Wildcats, too, began to turn the corner on offense last weekend.  Tuitama was poised in the pocket, accurate with his throws, and not afraid to air it out downfield.  Against a Lobo secondary that’s missing CB Glover Quin, and did little to slow down New Mexico State on Saturday, Dykes will continue to open up the aerial portions of the playbook.  The Arizona defense, which has given up just 160 rushing yards on 60 carries, will hem in Ferguson, making New Mexico a one-dimensional offense.
Who to watch: Already one of the country’s premier lock corners, Arizona’s Antoine Cason is adding punt returner to his resume.  After convincing the coaching staff to give him a shot on special teams, the senior rewarded their approval with a 70-yard burst for a score in the win over Northern Arizona.
What will happen: While both programs are making strides on offense, don’t expect to see a shootout in the desert.  The Lobos are a veteran team that’ll keep this game competitive until Arizona pulls away for good in the fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction: Arizona 28 … New Mexico 19 ... Line: Arizona -10 
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2.5

San Diego State (0-1) at Arizona State (2-0)  10:00 PM
Why to watch: Have we seen enough in just two games to start labeling Arizona State one of this year’s potential sleepers to blow past pre-season forecasts?  The Sun Devils have teased us in the past before plummeting back to reality once the calendar page says October.  This season might be different with Dennis Erickson pacing the sidelines, and the program playing with a more physical bent.  After handling San Jose State and Colorado easier than expected, Arizona State has one more chance before league play starts to eliminate the stupid penalties that infuriated the coach last weekend.  San Diego State kicked Chuck Long’s second season at the school by getting pummeled at Washington State, 45-17.  The Aztecs better hope it’s true that teams make their biggest strides from week one to week two, or else they’re going to get pounded again by a Pac-10 team.  
Why San Diego State might win: The Aztecs have the capacity to move the ball with veteran chucker Kevin O’Connell under center, and a solid corps of receivers catching his passes.  While Brett Swain and Chaz Schilens were last year’s leading receivers, converted quarterback Darren Mougey is a huge target that looked good in the opener, catching four passes for 52 yards and a touchdown.  At some point in the second half, Arizona State is going to start looking ahead to next week’s Pac-10 opener with Oregon State, which will create an opportunity for an Aztec rally.
Why Arizona State might win: If he can play within himself and avoid forcing passes, Rudy Carpenter will be able to name his numbers against a rebuilt San Diego State secondary that was obliterated by Alex Brink a week ago.  Brink was 38-of-47 for 469 yards and five touchdowns, numbers Carpenter might approach if RB Ryan Torain wasn’t so valuable to the offense.  Despite those 47 passes, the Aztecs had no sacks, another really bad omen heading into this week’s game at Arizona State.
Who to watch: Carpenter is going to pad his numbers on Saturday, as will his preferred target, junior WR Michael Jones.  A superb all-around athlete at 6-4, Jones already has ten receptions for 159 yards and three touchdowns, and will run circles around a very raw San Diego State secondary.  
What will happen: Although the Aztecs figure to be improved from last week, it won’t be nearly enough against an Arizona State squad that’s beginning to percolate in the desert.  The Sun Devils will jump out to a big lead, and empty the bench by the fourth quarter.  
CFN Prediction: Arizona State 43 … San Diego State 17 ... Line: Arizona State -28 
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2 

UCLA (2-0) at Utah (0-2)  5:00 PM
Why to watch: One team from the Beehive State down, and one to go.  After defeating BYU in the Rose Bowl last Saturday, UCLA turns its attention to Utah and a 3-0 start, while continuing to establish itself as a rising contender for really big things.  The Bruins have been sharp on both sides of the ball, getting particularly good efforts from their running game and run defense, but would still like to smooth out some wrinkles before the schedule gets markedly tougher.  The Utes haven’t gone in the tank since QB Brian Johnson succumbed to a shoulder injury early in the opener, managing just two measly touchdowns in consecutive losses to Oregon State and Air Force.  With so much optimism heading into the year, the Utes need to stop the slide with a statement win before the 2007 season completely slips away.
Why UCLA might win: From Johnson and LT Jason Boone to RB Matt Asiata and WR Brent Casteel, the injuries to Utah’s offensive personnel have been devastating.  And it’s only mid-September.  Tommy Grady hasn’t been a life preserver behind center, and will have trouble escaping a feisty Bruin pass rush that’s had four sacks in each of the first two games.  Without any semblance of a running game to support Grady, the Utes will have a hard time reaching double-digits against one of the Pac-10’s best defenses.
Why Utah might win: If there’s a weak link in the UCLA armor, it’s a pass defense that’s given up more than 300 yards passing to T.C. Ostrander and Max Hall to open the season.  Figure the Utes to abandon the run early, opting instead to let the 6-7, 235-pound Grady test his arm strength downfield.  Even without the services of Casteel, Utah has a couple of fine receivers in Derrek Richards and Brian Hernandez that can challenge the Bruin defensive backs.
Who to watch: With the Pac-10 about to resume for UCLA, the secondary must begin tightening up in coverage and preventing long gainers.  That shouldn’t be an issue for senior Trey Brown, the Bruins’ most reliable cover corner.  In last week’s win over BYU, Brown delivered five tackles, five passes broken up, a 56-yard pick for a touchdown, and a 21-yard fumble return before Hall gave up looking his way.
What will happen: Utah is sinking fast, and facing the wrong opponent to make a surprise rebound.  UCLA will pound away with backs Kahlil Bell and Chris Markey until the Ute defense runs out of gas in the second half. 
CFN Prediction: UCLA 31 … Utah 13 ... Line: UCLA -13.5 
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2.5    

Louisiana Tech (1-1) at California (2-0)  6:30 PM
Why to watch: Just how good is California? After getting gobs of national love following a 45-31 win over Tennessee, the defense struggled again as Colorado State made it way too close in a 34-28 Bear win. With the Pac 10 schedule kicking off next week against Arizona, the Bears have to dump on Louisiana Tech and use this game to make sure everything is in place on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs aren't planning on being a bunch of tackling dummies, especially after a strong overtime loss to Hawaii. New head coach Derek Dooley isn't afraid to take chances, and he'll have his team playing loose and with nothing to lose.
Why Louisiana Tech might win: The Cal defense hasn't decided to start the season yet, especially against the pass, getting picked apart for 572 yards in the first two games. Louisiana Tech doesn't have a high-powered attack, but QB Zac Champion and the passing game were effective enough against Hawaii to keep pace and come though with the clutch drives late when needed. As long as the Bulldogs can maintain a balance, they should be able to trade punches.
Why California might win: Louisiana Tech was able to stay alive against Hawaii by forcing three turnovers, and came up with six takeaways against Central Arkansas. The only way the Bulldogs can have any shot to keep it close is by creating a ton of turnovers, but that's not likely to happen. Besides being explosive, balanced and effective, the Cal offense has been relatively error-free so far. Yes, the Tech offense was effective last week, but it doesn't have the consistent passing game to keep up the pace if Cal starts to make this a shootout early on.
Who to watch: While everyone wants to see Cal's DeSean Jackson with the ball in his hands, especially as a punt returner, Louisiana Tech has just as much explosion on returns, along with a strong punting game. While he's only had three chances so far, Tech junior Philip Beck has made the most of them, returning three punts for 121 yards to lead the nation with a 40.3-yard average. The Bulldogs are currently second in the nation in net punting, with Chris Keagle currently sixth with a 47.3-yard average.
What will happen: Cal's defense will once again be shaky, but the offense will blow the doors off the Bulldogs and make this a laugher by halftime.
CFN Prediction: California 51 ... Louisiana Tech 20 ... Line: California -33.5
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2  

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Week Three, Part 2