Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Sept. 22

Previews and Predictions for the Week 4 Pac-10 Games.

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 21-6 ... ATS: 17-9

Pac 10 Game of the Week

Oregon State (2-1) at Arizona State (3-0)   10:00 PM
Why to watch: After watching Arizona State plow through three mediocre opponents to start the season, it’s time to see if this program is the genuine article or just a product of a soft schedule.  We should start getting some answers with this week’s visit from Oregon State, a flawed team, yet the best the Sun Devils have seen this season.  Arizona State has been in this position in recent Septembers, but won’t get any national attention until it starts beating Pac-10 teams and playing outside Tempe.  The Beavers are hopeful that last week’s visit from Idaho State helped solve some of the glaring issues that plagued the offense in a win over Utah and a sloppy loss to Cincinnati.  Sean Canfield had easily the best day of his career, but getting it done against a Big Sky defense won’t erase concerns about the quarterback situation in Corvallis.  However, last week sure helped his confidence, as did the return to form of WR Sammie Stroughter, who caught his nine passes of the year for 160 yards and two touchdowns.
Why Oregon State might win: After getting fooled so many times in recent years, are we really ready to jump on the Arizona State bandwagon?  They’ve yet to play an opponent that’ll finish over .500, or can match Oregon State’s physical play.  For as mediocre as OSU has started the season, the defense has been outstanding, shutting down opposing running games and making plays for negative yards with a terrific front seven.  The Beavers second-ranked run defense is allowing less than a yard per carry, which will put the onus on erratic Sun Devil QB Rudy Carpenter to move the chains.  Complicating things further is RB Ryan Torain’s ankle injury, which could shelve him for a second straight game.
Why Arizona State might win: Oregon State got a reprieve last week form its dreadful quarterback situation, but won’t be as fortunate this Saturday night in the desert.  The Sun Devil defense has been transformed so far under Craig Bray, allowing just one touchdown pass in three games, and leading the Pac-10 in scoring and total defense.  The numbers will soften as Pac-10 play begins, but that won’t change the fact that this is a far more physical and fundamentally sound unit than last year.  Arizona State now has the ability to make opponents one-dimensional, especially ones with issues at quarterback. 
Who to watch: Senior LB Robert James has become the unlikely epitome of Arizona State’s new play-hard, play-fast defense after sitting out most of 2006 with concussion-related headaches.  Through three games, he already has 30 tackles and a Pac-10-high six tackles for loss from the weakside, and will be in RB Yvenson Bernard’s hip pocket throughout Saturday night’s game.                      
What will happen: Since 1969, Oregon State has played in Tempe 15 times, losing every game.  The Beavers won’t get that elusive win in Sun Devil Stadium, but their defense is going to keep this game far tighter than oddsmakers are suggesting.  If Canfield protects the ball and makes a few plays in the passing game, OSU is capable of pulling the upset. 
CFN Prediction: Arizona State 27 … Oregon State 23... Line: Arizona State -12
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 3.5     

Pac 10 Saturday, Sept. 22

Arizona (1-2) at California (3-0)   6:00 PM
Why to watch: Talk about two teams headed in opposite directions.  With a rout of Louisiana Tech last week, Cal moved up two spots to No. 6 in the latest AP Poll, erasing the memory of its close call with Colorado State a week earlier.  As expected, the Bear offense is among the most explosive in the country, but the defense is going to be stretched by recent injuries to starting defensive linemen Matt Malele and Rulon Davis, and LB Zack Follett.  Although Cal is the heavy favorite on Saturday, Jeff Tedford will be quick to remind his team that it was No. 8 in the country last November when it was stunned by Arizona, 24-20.  The Wildcats are trying to regroup after slipping below .500 with an improbable home loss to New Mexico last Saturday night.  With so many starters back, this was the year the program was finally returning to the postseason, but a 1-3 start with a rugged schedule remaining could be too tough to overcome.
Why Arizona might win: Cal entered the season with major question marks along the defensive line, so losing Malele and Davis for any length of time is going to be a tall hurdle.  The light has started to go on for a Wildcat offense that’s switching this year to Sonny Dykes’ quick-strike spread offense.  Over the last two weeks, Arizona has thrown for 741 yards and eight touchdown passes, spreading the ball around and getting picked off just twice.  With better pass protection and less pressure from the depleted Cal defense, Willie Tuitama will continue to make strides at the expense of an iffy secondary.
Why Cal might win: What in the name of Desert Swarm has happened to the Arizona defense?  The unit that returned 10 starters and showed so much promise entering the season is 94^th nationally against the pass and just got shredded by New Mexico’s Donovan Porterie for 327 yards and three touchdowns.  That’s a real bad omen with Cal up next.  The Bears feature a balance, 40-point-a-game offense that’ll beat the Wildcats with Nate Longshore’s arm or Justin Forsett’s legs.  The blown coverages and missed tackles that have plagued Arizona in 2007 will prove to be fatal against Tedford’s dynamic offense.
Who to watch: The match up between Cal WR DeSean Jackson and Arizona CB Antoine Cason, a pair of All-America candidates, just might be the juiciest one-on-one battle of the entire weekend.  It’s also worth keeping a close watch on the Bears’ Derrick Hill, who is set to replace Malele on the inside.  Hill was one of the most coveted defensive recruits of 2006, and this could be the opening that launches his career into orbit.
What will happen: Arizona is going to make some plays and score some points on offense, but the way the defense is playing, Tedford will devour it with a gameplan that exposes its every flaw.  It’s payback time for those Cal holdovers that remember last year’s devastating loss in Tucson
CFN Prediction: California 41 … Arizona 21 ... Line: California -16
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 2.5

Washington State (2-1) at USC (2-0)   8:00 PM
Why to watch: USC’s response to last week’s national debate whether LSU or Oklahoma should occupy the top spot in the rankings? It destroyed Nebraska 49-31 in Lincoln in a game that it led 42-10 at one point in the second half.  The clear message to the rest of the country was that any discussions about the No. 1 team in the land had better include the Trojans first … at least for now.  While USC is by no means a finished product, its domination along both lines will mask some early growing pains, particularly on offense.  On Saturday night, the Trojan backs enjoyed gaping holes, en route to rushing for 313 yards on just 38 carries.  USC opens the Pac-10 portion of its schedule versus Washington State, a program its handled the last four years.  The Cougars are exactly where they’re expected to be after three games, having lost to Wisconsin in the opener, and rebounded with wins over San Diego State and Idaho.  Wazzu nearly won this game a year ago, but will need more support from the defense to pull off the shocker on Saturday.
Why Washington State might win: Although many of Sam Keller’s yards came when Nebraska was playing from behind, last week’s game showed you can move the ball on the USC pass defense.  The Trojans allowed the Huskers to complete 36-of-54 passes for 389 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.  Alex Brink and the Washington State passing game have been razor sharp the last two weeks, throwing for 776 yards, nine touchdowns, and just two picks.  Brink is a battle-tested senior, who has the experience and the depth at receiver to move the chains on the USC defense.
Why USC might win: After two quiet weeks playing second fiddle to the running game, John David Booty and the Trojan passing attack is about to get loud.  Real loud.  Washington State has a very shaky secondary that’s given up almost 800 yards in three games, and features sophomore Devin Giles and true freshman Chima Nwachukwu at the cornerback spots.  Although USC will again run the ball well, this is an ideal opportunity for Booty to start developing a rhythm with Patrick Turner, David Ausberry, Vidal Hazelton, and Fred Davis.  This is one of those games that Booty will deliver 300 yards and three or four touchdowns to get right back onto the Heisman sonar.
Who to watch: Chauncey Washington, C.J. Gable, and Joe McKnight got most of the preseason pub, but Stafon Johnson has gotten the majority of the carries in the first two games.  A 6-0, 210-pound burner with great vision in the open field, he’s averaging more than nine yards a carry and is tied for the team-lead with three touchdowns.
What will happen: It’ll be bombs away for a USC offense that wants to work on its passing attack long before the schedule stiffens in the second half of the year.  The Trojans will gobble up almost 500 yards of balanced offense, and coast to another one-sided victory.
CFN Prediction: USC 45 … Washington State 20 ... Line: USC -24
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 3     

Oregon (3-0) at Stanford (1-1)   10:00 PM
Why to watch: Oregon started fast last year before plummeting to a miserable 3-6 finish.  After opening with impressive wins over Houston, Michigan, and Fresno State this month, the Ducks are determined to maintain the good vibes in 2007 beginning with this week’s trip to Northern California, and it can’t afford to start slipping and have another slide.  Up eight spots to No. 13 in the polls, Oregon is winning with a high-powered offense that’s getting contributions from everywhere, and vaulting QB Dennis Dixon into the Heisman discussion.  This is Stanford, so last week’s 37-0 whitewash of San Jose State was cause for celebration and contemplation whether Jim Harbaugh’s first win was a harbinger of better days on the Farm.  The Cardinal won with defense and a physical running game, hardly the program’s calling cards, in its most complete victory in years.  Putting up a fight against a sizzling Oregon team would be another sign of progress.
Why Oregon might win: Sure, Stanford is coming off its first shutout in 11 years, but this is still the same defense that gave up 624 yards and 45 points to UCLA in the opener.  And the same defense that’ll struggle to slow down a balanced Oregon offense that’s humming right now.  The Ducks haven’t been held below 39 points this season, getting timely passes from Dixon and plenty of yards on the ground from Jonathan Stewart and Jeremiah Johnson.  Right now, there are just too many playmakers on the Oregon side for a questionable Cardinal defense to contain.
Why Stanford might win: You can move the ball on the Oregon defense, especially by running right at a pedestrian front wall.  The Ducks are ninth in the Pac-10 in run defense, despite having big leads in all three of their games.  Stanford showed an ability to run the ball with success last Saturday, getting 276 yards on the ground, 140 from bruising Toby Gerhart, who ran as if he was channeling Tommy Vardell.  The Cardinal will test the interior of the Oregon defense, limiting Dixon’s touches and opening things up for QB T.C. Ostrander to find one of his talented receivers.
Who to watch: It might be time for Oregon to start getting TE Ed Dickson more involved in the passing game.  A converted defensive end with the speed and athleticism to be the next Tim Day in Eugene, he showed signs of emerging last weekend, catching three passes and his first career touchdown reception.
What will happen: Although there are signs that Stanford is moving forward under Harbaugh, they’ll be harder to pinpoint against an Oregon team that’s executing very well these days.  Dixon will remain hot, getting a touchdown with his arm and legs for the fourth game in-a-row
CFN Prediction: Oregon 41 … Stanford 20... Line: Oregon -16.5
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 2.5     

Washington (2-1) at UCLA (2-1)   10:15 PM
Why to watch:  Both teams are coming off sloppy, lopsided losses, making this an early crossroads game for both programs.  Win, and a 3-1 start looks pretty good.  Lose, and those sick, sinking feelings from the last few years will begin to set in.  After looking worthy of a ranking in the first two weeks, the Bruins’ 44-6 loss to Utah came as one of Week Three’s huge surprises, feeding those that felt this team was overrated.  It was a complete collapse that knocked the program out of the Top 25, and once again turned up the heat on head coach Karl Dorrell.  If for nothing else, it’ll be fascinating to see how the Bruins respond to the pressure this weekend.  Although in losing 33-14 to Ohio State, Washington learned that it’s not quite ready to beat a power program, the program has to feel pretty good about where it’s at after three games.  With USC, Arizona State, and Oregon upcoming for the Huskies, however, a second straight loss could change the climate around Seattle and be the start of a long losing streak.
Why Washington might win: For all the talk of UCLA’s vaunted, veteran-laden defense, the unit has been shockingly easy to navigate this month, especially through the air.  The Bruins are 112^th nationally against the pass after allowing 264 yards and four touchdown passes to Utah journeyman Tommy Grady.  While they’ve been getting pressure on the outside, it hasn’t made much of a difference for a troubled secondary.  Washington QB Jake Locker will have an opportunity to outplay the more heralded Ben Olson, who’s regressed in each of the last two weeks after playing so well in the opener at Stanford.  
Why UCLA might win: After seeing Ohio State just bully the Washington defense for 263 rushing yards, look for the Bruins to lean heavily on the underrated backfield tandem of Chris Markey and Kahlil Bell.  Before last week, when an early deficit changed the playbook, UCLA was running with authority and getting the most out of its rotation.  Locker’s future is beaming, but the Buckeyes proved that he’s still prone to rookie mistakes when faced with pressure.  Bruin linemen Bruce Davis, Kevin Brown, and Korey Bosworth will be applying lots of pressure Saturday night.
Who to watch: Olson remains a head-scratcher with all of the attributes of an All-American quarterback, yet little to show for it at this level.  Just when it looked like he was ready to turn the corner, he had a head-on collision with mediocrity and the Utah defense.  If Olson can’t bounce back in a hurry, Dorrell could summons Patrick Cowan from the bullpen.  As if the quarterback needs more to worry about, his best blocker, Shannon Tevaga, injured his knee on Saturday, and could be out for a few weeks.
What will happen: In a pivotal game for both schools, the UCLA defense will come to the aid of the offense, creating key turnovers and shortening the field for Olson.  Bruin K Kai Forbath will nail three field goals to provide the difference.  
CFN Prediction: UCLA 30 … Washington 20 ... Line: UCLA -5.5
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 3