Click Here to Email This Story to a Friend Click Here for a Printer Friendly Version
Scout.com RSS Feeds 
Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Oct. 13
Oregon State's Victor Butler
Oregon State's Victor Butler
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Oct 8, 2007

Previews and Predictions for the Week 7 Pac-10 Games.

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona StCalifornia | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Sept. 1Sept. 8 | Sept. 15Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6Oct. 20Oct. 27 | Nov. 3Nov. 10 | Nov. 17Nov. 24Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 29-12 ... ATS: 24-15-1

Pac 10 Game of the Week

Oregon State (3-3) at California (5-0)  7:00 EST
Why to watch: Without much warning and without having to play a game, Cal is now the nation’s No. 2 team with a bona fide shot at playing for a national championship.  Thank you, Stanford.  The Bears are also the new favorites to win the Pac-10, and now they’ll have to prove against an Oregon State team looking to make a statement.  In the two weeks since winning in Eugene, injury-riddled Cal is closer to full health after getting some sorely needed down time.  Desperate for a win a week ago, Oregon State delivered an important 31-16 defeat of Arizona, staying alive for one of the league’s automatic bowl berths.  For once this season, turnovers didn’t destroy the Beavers, an isolated incident that must become a trend to have a chance for the upset in Berkeley.
Why Oregon State might win: Despite being saddled by an error-prone offense, the Beaver defense has really begun to play up to its potential, highlighted by an eight-sack, three-pick game last week.  With DE Victor Butler and LB Derrick Doggett keying a vastly underrated front seven, Oregon State leads the country in run defense and is second nationally in sacks.  It’ll slow down Cal RB Justin Forsett and get after QB Nate Longshore, who doesn’t move exceptionally well outside the pocket.  You can run on the Bears, something the Beavers will attempt to do with dependable senior Yvenson Bernard.
Why Cal might win: You may not be able to run on the Beavers, but you sure can get vertical on the nation’s 82nd-ranked pass defense.  Longshore will make good use of his trio of receivers, DeSean Jackson, Robert Jordan, and Lavelle Hawkins, to burn a very beatable Oregon State secondary.  While the Bears lead the Pac-10 in turnover margin, the Beavers are dead last, a recipe for disaster for the visitors.  The quick Cal defenders in the back seven will befuddle Sean Canfield, who’s thrown 13 of Oregon State’s 17 interceptions.
Who to watch: It’s not often you’d want to focus on a center, but Cal’s Alex Mack is a special talent that helps keep the offense humming without hitches.  Besides being the conduit to Longshore, he’ll also be going toe-to-toe with a nasty Oregon State interior that includes veterans Butler, Jeff Van Orsow, Dorian Smith, and William Akau'ola Vea.  The winner of this physical game-with-the-game gets a big edge in the final outcome.
What will happen: Well-rested and well coached, Cal will parlay Oregon State mistakes into points, pulling away in the second half.  The Beaver defense is real good, but it can only handle so many short-field situations before giving way to a talented and balanced Bears attack.
CFN Prediction California 38 … Oregon State 17... Line: California -14
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 3

Pac 10 Saturday, Oct. 13

Washington State (2-4) at Oregon (4-1) 3:30 EST
Why to watch: After losing a heartbreaker to Cal two weeks ago, Oregon is set to play the first game of the rest of its year.  How well the Ducks play this Saturday could set the tone for a season that still has plenty of promise and potential.  Now No. 8 in the Coaches’ Poll after another weekend shakeout around it, Oregon has a very real opportunity to parlay a sizzling finish into a BCS bowl game.  Despite playing its most complete game of the first half against Arizona State last Saturday, Washington State couldn’t break through in a hard-fought 23-20 loss.  Head man Bill Doba is banking on the close call being a turning point rather than just an inconsequential blip on the radar.  If here’s wrong, it’ll be a long final two months for both the coach and his program.
Why Washington State might win: The Oregon defense has allowed at least 400 yards and 31 points in each of the last two games.  The Cougars have the weapons on offense to extend that streak to three games in-a-row.  All-time leading passer and Eugene High School graduate Alex Brink is flanked by a solid set of receivers and underrated RB Dwight Tardy, who give the offense the balance needed to dent the Duck D.  On defense, Wazzu is coming off its best effort of the season, getting four sacks from strongside LB Andy Mattingly and holding Arizona State to a season-low 296 total yards.
Why Oregon might win: It’s one thing to slow down Rudy Carpenter, but it’s another chore entirely to slow down Dennis Dixon, who can hurt a defense with his arm and legs.  This is essentially the same Washington State defense that ranks 92nd in the country and is 116th in pass efficiency defense.  The Cougars are too young and too inexperienced in the secondary, a big concern against imposing Duck receivers Jaison Williams and Cameron Colvin, along with TE Ed Dickson.  Oregon averages 43 points a game, and shouldn’t have too many problems hitting that if this gets into any sort of a shootout.
Who to watch: DE Nick Reed has been one of the exceptions to an Oregon defense that’s been inconsistent over the last couple of weeks.  A hard worker with keen fundamentals, he leads the Pac-10 with eight tackles for loss and has four sacks.  The pedestrian Wazzu tackles will have to work overtime to keep No. 49 out of the backfield and off Brink’s jersey.
What will happen: It might take two quarters for Oregon to shake off the rust, but it’ll get the offense humming in the second half with Dixon and RB Jonathan Stewart.  Although Washington State will move the ball between the 20s, it’ll bog down in the red zone, a problem that’s plagued the Cougars all season.
CFN Prediction Oregon 42 … Washington State 20... Line: Oregon -18
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 2.5


Arizona (2-4) at USC (4-1)  3:30 EST  ABC
Why to watch: Sure, USC has been upset before during the Pete Carroll era, but Saturday’s hard-to-process home loss to 41-point underdog Stanford reached an entirely new level of disbelief.  Could everyone have been that wrong about this year’s Trojan team?  Playing with all of the emotion of the U.S. Olympic basketball squad, USC waved buh-bye to its 35-game Coliseum winning streak and likely its national title hopes to a 1-4 Cardinal team that had lost its starting quarterback to a seizure six days earlier.  Now what?  The dirt is being heaped on the program from every direction, but there’s still a season to be played and, potentially, another league title to be won.  If nothing else, it’ll be interesting to see if injured QB John David Booty or understudy Mark Sanchez takes snaps, and downright fascinating to witness how the mighty Trojans respond the week following a disaster.  Arizona can’t be too thrilled as getting USC’s full, angry attention.  The Wildcats can’t seem to string together two good games in-a-row, losing badly to Oregon State a week after lighting up Washington State.  Consistency and turnovers have been problems all season for a program that’s inching closer to being out of the bowl picture for the ninth straight year.
Why Arizona might win: After losing to Stanford and nearly getting knocked off by Washington, USC hasn’t been this vulnerable since the years before Carroll arrived.  The Trojans continue to be careless with the ball, listless on offense, and weak on special teams, ingredients for unexpected outcomes.  Led by All-America candidate Antoine Cason, the Wildcats have a secondary that can further USC’s aerial woes and an improving pass rush that’ll challenge the banged up Trojan offensive line.  Averaging more than 30 points over the last five games, QB Willie Tuitama and the ‘Zona offense won’t back down to the USC D.
Why USC might win: Let’s not carried away, folks.  This is still USC.  Even with all of their injuries and issues, the Trojans have enough talent on both sides of the ball to quickly dispose of Arizona.  The Wildcats haven’t played well on defense all year, which will provide the opening for USC to reestablish the run with Chauncey Washington, and get the passing game back on track regardless of who gets the ball.  With DT Sedrick Ellis and DE Lawrence Jackson supplying the pressure up front, the defense should toy with an Arizona offensive line that’s overmatched and allowing way too many sacks this fall.
Who to watch: Last week’s four-interception game wasn’t all Booty’s fault.  His offensive line is beaten up and struggling, and none of the blue-chip receivers have turned into stars.  TE Fred Davis has been a one-man gang, but it’s high time that Patrick Turner, Vidal Hazelton, and David Ausberry begin evolving into steady and reliable playmakers. Can they make Booty, or Sanchez, shine? They’re way overdue.
What will happen: The USC defense will dominate, picking off a couple of Tuitama passes and scoring a touchdown of its own. Offensively, this will be a game for the line and the running game. The front five will come up with one of its best games of the year.
CFN Prediction: USC 40 … Arizona 17... Line: USC -21
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 2.5

 
TCU (3-3) at Stanford (2-3)  5:00 EST
Why to watch: Just how big was Stanford’s upset of No. 2 USC last weekend?  So big that Appalachian State’s defeat of Michigan in the opener suddenly doesn’t seem so special.  The Cardinal rocked the sports world and QB Tavita Pritchard will forever be a footnote in college football lore, but where does the program go from here?  Although it’s evident Stanford is moving in the right direction under Jim Harbaugh, it still needs to build on the victory in order to avoid being a one-hit wonder.  Beating TCU and Arizona in the next two weeks would be a great start, and the type of outcomes that would make Harbaugh a front-runner for Pac-10 Coach of the Year.  The Horned Frogs continue to be one of this year’s milder disappointments.  Pegged as a possible BCS buster before the season began, they’re hovering at .500 after a loss to Wyoming, and in danger of falling completely out of the Mountain West race.  DE Tommy Blake has been missed, and ever since halftime of the Texas game, TCU has been an ordinary team, especially on offense.
Why TCU might win: The attitude and the number of media requests may have changed since last Saturday, but this is still Stanford, a team that had lost its first three Pac-10 games by at least 24 points.  The offense is last in the conference is scoring and next to last in total yards, while starting QB T.C. Ostrander may not be back from the seizure that sidelined him last week.  The Cardinal will have problems moving the ball on an aggressive Horned Frog D that’s allowing 16 points a game and has more than twice as many interceptions as touchdowns allowed.  This has the potential to be the ultimate hangover game for Stanford.
Why Stanford might win: You think the Cardinal is confident after becoming the first team in six years to beat USC in the Coliseum?  Harbaugh will prevent that emotion from bleeding into overconfidence.  The game should slow down considerably for Pritchard, who was thrust into the impossible situation of facing the Trojan defense in his first career start.  Stanford has shown some toughness on defense over the last two weeks, collecting ten sacks and five interceptions, and will corral a 91st-ranked TCU offense that’s been misfiring all year.
Who to watch: Playing through pain all season long, LB Clinton Snyder has evolved into the emotional and physical leader of an improving Stanford defense.  The team leader in sacks and tackles for loss from the strong side, he’ll have in his crosshairs RB Aaron Brown, easily TCU’s best offensive weapon.  Slow down Brown, and the Horned Frogs don’t score.
What will happen: All of a sudden, it’s newsworthy what happens to Stanford. TCU might be having problems, but there’s a reason why the Cardinal was such a monster underdog to USC. Stanford’s offense didn’t do anything against the Trojans, and it’ll struggle this week.
CFN Prediction: TCU 23 … Stanford 16... Line: TCU -5.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 2


Washington (2-3) at Arizona State (6-0)  10:15 EST
Why to watch: Arizona State survived its tightest squeeze of the year last week in a 23-20 win at Washington State, a real positive sign for a team that had waltzed through most of the early part of the schedule.  Now up to No. 13 in the latest Coaches’ Poll, the Sun Devils are one win away from setting up a monster showdown next week with second-ranked Cal.  Try hard not to look ahead, Sparky.  Washington is coming off its bye week, and riding a three-game losing that has it staring at a fork in the 2007 road.  With a week to get their heads in the right place, the Huskies recognize there’s plenty to play for in the second half, including bowl eligibility if the bleeding stops now.  Young QB Jake Locker figures to improve as the season progresses, which has Washington fans excited well beyond just October and November.
Why Washington might win: If the Husky corners hold up in man coverage, Washington is going to bring it from every angle this Saturday night.  Arizona State has already allowed 22 sacks this year, wilting in the face of the Washington State blitz last Saturday.  Against a shaky Sun Devil pass defense, Locker will register the best numbers of his brief career, connecting for big plays with Marcel Reece and Anthony Russo.
Why Arizona State might win: The Sun Devils balance and versatility on offense presents problems for a Washington defense that’s badly exploited over the last three weeks.  The Huskies have given up more than 800 yards on the ground over that time, a trend that’ll continue against Ryan Torain, Keegan Herring, and the ASU ground game.  While it bends, the Sun Devil defense has not been breaking, allowing a mere 14 points a game, tops in the Pac-10.  It’ll contain a U-Dub offense that’s pulling up the rear in the league at just 332 yards a game.
Who to watch: Torain’s career-high while in Tempe was 191 yards rushing at Cal last September.  That number could be in jeopardy with this week’s visit from Washington.  The Huskies were simply shredded on the ground by Ohio State, UCLA, and USC, while Torain is back close to 100% after missing some time earlier in the year with knee and ankle injuries.
What will happen: The records may indicate a blowout, but reality will sing a different tune Saturday night.  Locker will help keep things very tight before Arizona State uses another strong second half to avoid the devastating upset.
CFN Prediction: Arizona State 34 … Washington 23 ... Line: Arizona State -12
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 2.5

   

Related Stories
Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Oct. 6
 -by CollegeFootballNews.com  Oct 2, 2007
Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Oct. 20
 -by CollegeFootballNews.com  Oct 18, 2007
Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Sept. 29
 -by CollegeFootballNews.com  Sep 25, 2007

Story Tools
Top Stories 
Search Stories 
Discuss on Forums