Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 3
Arizona State RB Keegan Herring
Arizona State RB Keegan Herring
CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 28, 2007


Previews and Predictions for the Week 10 Pac-10 Games.

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona StCalifornia | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Sept. 1Sept. 8 | Sept. 15Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6Oct. 13 | Oct. 20Oct. 27 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17Nov. 24Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 38-17 ... ATS: 29-25-1

Pac 10 Game of the Week

Arizona State (8-0) at Oregon (7-1)  6:45 EST  ESPN
Why to Watch: Before the start of the season, who could have guessed that the biggest game of the Pac-10 season wouldn’t include USC or Cal? With 15 wins and just a single loss between them, everything’s on the line in one of the biggest games ever played for each of the two schools.  Not only will the winner take control of the conference with three games left, but it’ll also vault that team into super serious contention for the BCS Championship game.  Both schools reside in the top 5 of the latest rankings after delivering signature wins a week ago, the Ducks over the Trojans, and the Sun Devils over the Bears.  Oregon is rolling behind the play of QB Dennis Dixon, RB Jonathan Stewart, and an offense that leads the Pac-10 in most major categories.  It must guard against a letdown after investing so much into dethroning USC a week ago.  Arizona State converted a ton of skeptics with its 31-20 win over Cal late last Saturday night to remain unbeaten under Dennis Erickson.  While the Sun Devils haven’t been spotless this season, they’ve been close, getting contributions from every corner of the roster.
Why Arizona State might win: The concerns that the Sun Devils’ high-ranking defense was living off a cushy schedule were addressed in Tempe last weekend.  ASU’s defensive front did a fantastic job against a potent Cal offense, containing RB Justin Forsett, picking off two Nate Longshore passes, and shutting out the Bears in the second half, allowing the offense to rally from a 13-point deficit.  Oregon will score on Saturday, but the points won’t come easy against a Devil D that’s No. 9 nationally against the run and tops in the Pac-10 in pass efficiency defense.  Arizona State also ended worries that RB Ryan Torain’s season-ending injury would mark the end of its offensive balance, getting 181 yards and three scores last week from Keegan Herring and Dimitri Nance.  This is a complete football team that’s no longer the tease that it was under Dirk Koetter.
Why Oregon might win: Nothing builds the confidence or the resume of a Pac-10 team like knocking USC off its perch.  The Ducks are flying in rarified air these days because of last week’s win and because of an offense that’s scored at least 50 points in four of the last six games.  Dixon is playing like he plans on being in New York for the Heisman presentation, and when it comes to the discussion of the nation’s best backs, Stewart belongs in the same sentence with Arkansas’ Darren McFadden and West Virginia’s Steve Slaton when he’s healthy.  He’s healthy.  Not to be overlooked, the Oregon defense showed last week that it’ll step up in big games, holding the Trojans to a season-low 17 points while creating three huge turnovers. This is an ultra-confident group ready to take on the league’s No. 2 offense.
Who to watch: Arizona State QB Rudy Carpenter has been solid, but he hasn’t been off-the-charts.  He may need to be on Saturday if the Oregon offense starts humming or the Sun Devils fall behind, as has been their theme this season.  Carpenter might struggle when matched up with a Duck secondary that’ll give up a lot of yards, but makes up for the occasional blown coverage by taking a pass the other way or batting down a pass to prevent a first down.  Oregon corners Walter Thurmond and Jairus Byrd are outstanding athletes that have the edge over a Sun Devil receiving corps that’s average after Michael Jones. Making matters more interesting is an injury to Carpenter’s thumb, suffered making a handoff against Cal. All indications are that he’s fine, but he’ll nee to be nearly perfect.
What Will Happen: While Arizona State is for real, beating Oregon in Eugene is a whole lot tougher than handling a suddenly average Cal team in Tempe.  It’ll take all four quarters before the Ducks shake the Sun Devils, getting another solid effort from an improving defense. 
CFN Prediction: Oregon 31 … Arizona State 27 ... Line: Oregon -7
Must See Rating: (5 Heidi Klum on Victoria's Secret Fashion Show - 1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ... 5

Pac 10 Saturday, November 3rd

UCLA (5-3) at Arizona (3-6)  3:30 EST, ABC
Why to Watch: Is UCLA still a legitimate contender for the Pac-10 title?  The 4-1 league record may say yes, but last week’s dreadful 20-point loss to Washington State and late season schedule indicate that the program will be scrapping for a second-tier bowl game again in December.  Things could get real ugly in November for battle-scarred head coach Karl Dorrell and the Bruins, who are accumulating injuries on offense.  With a finishing kick that includes Arizona State, Oregon, and USC, it’s imperative that UCLA grab a win when it can this weekend in Tucson.  Like Dorrell, Arizona head coach Mike Stoops is under the AD microscope with no guarantees that he’ll be back for another season in 2008.  The Wildcats improved to 3-6 with a stirring 48-41 win over Washington behind a record-setting day from QB Willie Tuitama.  Under Stoops, Arizona has been at its best in November, and last week’s comeback in Seattle is a sign that the team is poised for another late-season rally.
Why UCLA might win: With Arizona, you never know what you’re going to get from week to week.  The program completely lacks any consistency, failing to score when the defense plays well, and looking like a sieve when the offense puts up points.  Last Saturday, Tuitama and WR Mike Thomas had to bail out a sketchy Wildcat defense that gave up 572 yards to Washington, one of the worst offenses in the Pac-10.  Without any running game or a reliable front wall to control the sack-happy Bruins, Arizona will revert back to the offense that went a three-game stretch in October without scoring more than 20 points in a game.
Why Arizona might win: QB Ben Olson is out.  His backup, Patrick Cowan, is limping.  Leading rusher Kahlil Bell is out for the year.  His running mate, Chris Markey, is gimpy.  Leading WR Brandon Breazell is trying to play through sore ribs.  Where will the UCLA production come from this week?  Against an awful Wazzu defense last week, the Bruins managed just seven points and 267 total yards, a preview of what’s to come over the balance of the season.  The Wildcats, on the other hand, will be able to air it out on a UCLA defense that’s allowed 16 touchdown passes and has been vulnerable to the long ball all season.
Who to watch: Although he gets somewhat overlooked around the Pac-10, Thomas has been the one constant on offense for Arizona this season, catching 50 passes for a third year in-a-row.  An undersized player that can find the soft spots in a defense, he’s coming off a monster 10-catch, three-touchdown performance versus Washington, and will toast a UCLA secondary that’s been spotty for much of the year.
What Will Happen: UCLA may have four games remaining, but last week’s game in Pullman proved that this program is clinically dead. Or is it? Just when you think UCLA stinks, it comes up with a great win from out of nowhere. The defense will pull this one off as it bends, but rarely breaks against Tuitama.
CFN Prediction UCLA 30 … Arizona 20 ... Line: UCLA -3
Must See Rating: (5 Heidi Klum on Victoria's Secret Fashion Show - 1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ...

Washington (2-6) at Stanford (3-5)  3:30 EST
Why to Watch: Did Washington reach rock bottom with last week’s 48-41 home loss to Arizona, a game it led 41-26 in the final quarter?  We’ll find out this week when the Huskies, riding a six-game losing streak, travel to Palo Alto to play a Stanford team it needs to beat to show that things are headed in the right direction.  An even better question might be whether or not the program has accomplished anything under Tyrone Willingham in 2007, other than breaking the seal on the Jake Locker era.  While dropping five in-a-row to better teams was acceptable, last Saturday’s loss to the Wildcats was not.  The Cardinal had problems of its own last weekend, playing its worst game in a month in a 23-6 loss to Oregon State.  Although Stanford was never competitive in Corvallis, three upcoming games with sub-.500 teams have the program clinging to the faint hope of winning six games, and nabbing a bowl invitation.
Why Washington might win: At long last, the Huskies get to face an offense that lacks the weapons to obliterate it the way opponents have over the last six weeks.  Washington is horrible defensively, but a Stanford offense that’s last in the league in scoring and total yards won’t be able to take advantage.  On defense, the Cardinal will fail to contain Locker, who’s improving weekly as a passer, and getting good contributions from top receivers Marcel Reece and Anthony Russo.
Why Stanford might win: Washington has been so bad on defense this year, it couldn’t stop Samford, let alone Stanford.  The Cardinal will go right after a Husky secondary that allowed 510 yards passing to Arizona by utilizing a gifted set of receivers in Richard Sherman, Evan Moore, and Mark Bradford.  Stanford would love to get back RB Anthony Kimble from a shoulder injury so he can run against a U-Dub defense that hasn’t stopped any running game with a pulse having given up 147 points over the last three weeks.  On an intangible level, there seems to be no quit in a Cardinal program that’s being led by high-energy head coach Jim Harbaugh. 
Who to watch: It’s going to be a big game for Washington DE Daniel Te’o-Nesheim, a high-motor guy and one the Huskies’ best pass rushers.  He’s going to toy with a Stanford line that’s been abysmal in keeping the quarterbacks upright all year long, allowing a whopping 32 sacks through eight games.  If the Cardinal tries to double Te’o-Nesheim, speedy Greyson Gunheim will make it pay from the opposite side.
What Will Happen: The Washington offense has played well enough to win the last two games, but the defense has failed to hold up its end of the pact.  That won’t be a problem against Stanford this week, as Locker will carry the Huskies to their first win in nearly two months.
CFN Prediction: Washington 31 … Stanford 27 ... Line: Washington -3
Must See Rating: (5 Heidi Klum on Victoria's Secret Fashion Show - 1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ... 2
 

Oregon State (5-3) at USC (6-2)  8:00 EST
Why to Watch: After losing to Oregon Saturday, and basically dropping out of the Pac-10 race, where does USC go from here?  These are strange days for the Trojans, who remain loaded with future pros on both sides of the ball, yet will take a rare backseat to the likes of Oregon and Arizona State over the next month as it sits around dealing with the Reggie Bush situation.  Still, despite all the talk of dynasties ending and skies falling, there’s plenty for USC to play for, including a sixth-straight 10-win season that just might be enough to earn the program a season-salvaging at-large BCS bowl berth.  The Trojans could get starting QB John David Booty back from a finger problem, as the team’s injury list gradually continues to shrink.  Along with the Ducks and the Sun Devils, Oregon State is suddenly the hottest team in the Pac-10, winning three straight games to move into a fourth-place tie in the league with the Trojans.  The Beavers are being carried by a veteran defense that’s more than compensating for an offense that’s been hampered by injuries and poor play behind center.
Why Oregon State might win: The Beavers have allowed just 16 points a game during its winning streak, rising to No. 1 in the country in run defense and sacks.  The veteran front seven, in particular, will present problems for a USC offense that lacks playmakers and has been held in check by far less seasoned units over the past five games.  Even if Booty does return to the huddle, he’ll have to shake a few off a few layers of rust that come with almost a month of inactivity.
Why USC might win: For all the issues the Trojans have had this season, none can be pinned on a defense that ranks fourth in the country and is getting healthier each week.  With star WR Sammie Stroughter on the shelf, top RB Yvenson Bernard nursing a shoulder injury, and QB Sean Canfield still struggling with his reads, the USC defense should the OSU offense from the star.  The Beavers have had problems with pass protection this fall, which is not going to improve against a defense that features DT Sedrick Ellis, DE Lawrence Jackson, and the best ensemble of linebackers in the country.
Who to watch
: USC is in dire need of more big plays on offense, which is one reason why true freshman RB Joe McKnight has seen his role in the offense increase over the last three weeks.  The prize of last year’s recruiting class, he has the breakaway speed and Bush-esque moves in the open field that Trojan coaches hope can loosen up defenses over the final month of the season.
What Will Happen: Fueled by a suffocating defense, USC will thoroughly frustrate Canfield, and get an ounce of revenge for last season’s memorable loss in Corvallis.
CFN Prediction: USC 28 ….Oregon State 13 ... Line: USC -15.5
Must See Rating: (5 Heidi Klum on Victoria's Secret Fashion Show - 1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ... 3.5
 

Washington State (3-5) at California (5-3)  10:00 EST
Why to Watch: Didn’t you used to be Cal? The Bears, who were on a collision course with a No. 1 ranking last month, are in the midst of a three-game losing streak that has completely altered expectations.  While the losses have hardly been one-sided, they ‘ve exposed the program’s inability to win close games or make timely stops on defense.  The Chicago Cubs of the Pac-10, Cal will have to wait another season to try ending a near half-century absence from the Rose Bowl.  Washington State came up unexpectedly big last weekend, destroying UCLA for its first league win of the season.  The defense played its best game of the season, RB Dwight Tardy ran for a career-high 214 yards and two scores, and the Cougars showed everyone that they weren’t quitting on beleaguered head coach Bill Doba.  Deliver another upset this week, and the program will have something to play for in November: bowl eligibility.
Why Washington State might win: Tardy’s performance last week and the overall play of the offensive line give hope that the Cougar offense can display balance over the final month of the year to go along with all-time leading passer Alex Brink.  Save for the Louisiana Tech game, Cal hasn’t stopped anyone this season, allowing 27 points a game and rarely generating much pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  The Bear secondary is suspect, creating an opening for Brink and an underrated group of receivers to take over the game in Berkeley.
Why Cal might win: In Pullman, Washington State has been very respectable.  Outside of the Palouse, the Cougars have been very repulsive, losing by an average of 32 points.  Saturday night’s game is on the road.  Wazzu’s effort on defense last week was commendable, but it was also an aberration.  The Cougars have one of the nation’s youngest and most generous pass defenses, yielding 19 touchdown passes and an average of 271 yards a game.  If the Bears want to end their skid, they’ll attack this unit with a dynamite collection of receivers that includes DeSean Jackson, Lavelle Hawkins, and Robert Jordan.
Who to watch: It’s obvious that Cal QB Nate Longshore’s ankle still isn’t 100%, but is his complete lack of mobility killing the Bear offense?  Opposing defenses are blitzing the already heavy-legged quarterback, knowing that he has no chance of avoiding the rush.  Expect more of the same from Washington State, which loves turning loose LB Andy Mattingly, the team’s leader in sacks and tackles for loss.  If Longshore shows any hints of being a liability for Jeff Tedford, expect the coach to yank him in favor of freshman Kevin Riley.
What Will Happen: With its defense reverting back to usual form, Washington State’s road woes will continue in a lopsided loss in Strawberry Canyon.  Cal will produce 500 yards of balanced offense to overcome its own issues on the defensive side of the ball.
CFN Prediction: California 42 … Washington State 21... Line: California -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 Heidi Klum on Victoria's Secret Fashion Show - 1 Heidi Klum on Oprah) ... 2.5

   

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