Scout.com: Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 10

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Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 10

California WR DeSean Jackson

By Staff

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Nov 6, 2007

Previews and Predictions for the Week 11 Pac-10 Games.

How are the picks so far? SU: 42-18 ... ATS: 30-29-1

Pac 10 Game of the Week

USC (7-2) at California (6-3) 8:00 EST
Why to watch: Alright, so the game of the year in the Pac-10 has been downgraded to the game of the week in the Pac-10. At one point in early October, this looked like a winner-take-all meeting between a pair of top 5 unbeatens, but that was before USC and Cal combined to go 4-5 since that point. Both programs are coming off stop-the-bleeding wins a week ago, the Trojans over Oregon State, and the Bears at the expense of Washington State. Although USC has been taken down a few pegs this fall and its headlock on the Pac-10 title is on the verge of ending, the program can still land an at-large BCS bowl berth by getting to 10-2. Currently No. 17 in the BCS standings, the Trojans would probably become eligible and attractive with wins over Cal, Arizona State, and UCLA. The Bears ended their improbable three-game losing streak last Saturday, holding off Wazzu behind a rare “A” game from the beleaguered defense. Facing criticism for the first time in his Bear career, Jeff Tedford could use a victory over USC in order to turn the tide in this up-and-down year.
Why USC might win: Struggling to score and move the ball on the ground over the last month, the Trojans are the last team that Cal wants to see this week. The Bears haven’t been the Bears the last four games, averaging only 22 points and lacking the big-play potential that had become symbolic of Tedford’s offenses. USC will keep that trend going with a star-studded defense that’s getting healthy, and coming off its best game of the season. Now No. 3 nationally in total defense, the Trojans have allowed just one touchdown pass in the last six weeks, and have 17 sacks over the last three games.
Why Cal might win: Like this week’s opponent, the Bears, too, are beginning to play their best defense of 2007. In last week’s 20-17 win, they gave up just 354 yards and one offensive touchdown to a veteran Washington State offense. The USC offense, which has gone over 27 points just once in the last six games, isn’t striking fear into anyone these days. Cal, for all of its recent offensive woes, is still home to RB Justin Forsett, and WRs DeSean Jackson and Lavelle Hawkins, who are all capable of breaking open a game with their skills in the open field.
Who to watch: With so many sexier stars in the stadium, it’ll be hard to focus on the linemen, but well worth it for those who pay attention. The battle between the Cal offensive line and the USC defensive line is going to be a four-quarter war that goes a long way to determining Saturday night’s winner. For the Bears, C Alex Mack and LT Mike Gibson are two of the best at their positions in the Pac-10. For the Trojans, DT Sedrick Ellis and DE Lawrence Jackson are future first-day NFL Draft choices, while true freshman DE Everson Griffen is on the brink of becoming a beast. Engage.
What will happen: While USC certainly isn’t all the way back, the healthy return of QB John David Booty and the recent play of the defense signal a strong finish to the regular season. The Trojans will keep the Cal offense quiet, and get a pair of touchdown catches from TE Fred Davis for another momentum-building win.
CFN Prediction: USC 28 … California 20 ... Line: USC -4
Must See Rating: (5 Seinfeld: Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ... 4

Pac 10 Saturday, November 3rd

Arizona State (8-1) at UCLA (5-4) 3:30 EST, ABC
Why to watch: Okay, so Arizona State isn’t going to conquer the college football world in Dennis Erickson’s desert debut, but that doesn’t mean it can’t wind up the year in the Rose Bowl or Fiesta Bowl. The Sun Devils’ perfect season ended in Eugene last week, but at No. 9 in the BCS standings, they’re still just three wins away from becoming one of the Pac-10’s representatives in a BCS bowl game. Step one will be showing they can handle adversity, something that hasn’t reached Tempe until last Saturday’s 35-23 loss. Losers of three of its last four games, UCLA can teach Arizona State a thing or two about dealing with adversity. The Bruins are coping these days with devastating injuries on offense, a coach on the hot seat, and the toughest final quarter of the season of any league team, yet will punch a ticket to the Rose Bowl with season-ending wins over the Sun Devils, Oregon, and USC. Don’t bank on it, however, even for a team as unpredictable as UCLA.
Why Arizona State might win: A knee injury to Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan’s collapsed lung mean UCLA will be handing the ball to Osaar Rasshan, who began the season as a reserve wide receiver. The sophomore showed good athletic ability in last week’s loss to Arizona, but doesn’t have the experience or passing skills to move the ball on a Sun Devil defense that’s been stout all year. Arizona State boasts the league’s No. 2 total defense and No. 3 total defense, which will be a steep challenge for a Bruin offense that’s also without leading rusher Kahlil Bell.
Why UCLA might win: If the Bruins are going to author an upset, the defense will be holding the script. While the unit has had its ups and downs in 2007, it remains a veteran group that that’s especially strong up front. Speed rusher Bruce Davis presents a challenge coming off the edge, particularly for an Arizona State offensive line that’s 116^th nationally in pass protection. The UCLA D needs to rattle the excitable Rudy Carpenter, planting seeds of doubt in the minds of every Sun Devil that they weren’t as good as the 8-0 start after all.
Who to watch: If Carpenter is given time to set his feet in the pocket, he’ll decimate a UCLA secondary that’s given up 19 touchdown passes and countless long balls this year. The Sun Devils enjoy a decided advantage over the Bruins at the position, which Erickson and offensive coordinator Rich Olson plan to exploit as much as possible in Pasadena.
What will happen: Last week’s trip to Eugene was huge for Arizona State, but this week’s trek to Pasadena is almost as big. The Sun Devils will respond to the crossroads in their season, snuffing out an overmatched UCLA offense, and pulling away on a couple of Carpenter to Michael Jones scoring strikes.
CFN Prediction: Arizona State 31 … UCLA 19 ... Line: Arizona State -7
Must See Rating: (5 Seinfeld: Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ... 3

Stanford (3-6) at Washington State (3-6) 6:30 EST
Why to watch: While Stanford and Washington State are wallowing at the bottom of the Pac-10, by Sunday morning, the winner of this weekend’s game on the Palouse will be touting its chance for a .500 season and bowl eligibility. Besieged by injuries, the Cardinal has done little since flooring USC, losing three of its last four games. The return of senior T.C. Ostrander from a Sept. 30 seizure could create a quarterback controversy for head coach Jim Harbaugh, who’s been using Tavita Pritchard for the past month. While Washington State is just 1-5 since beating Idaho on Sept. 15, it’s been much more competitive of late, upsetting UCLA, while nearly doing the same to Arizona State and Cal. The biggest storyline around Pullman these days is the job security of Bill Doba, who’s just 18-25 since taking the Cougars to the 2003 Holiday Bowl.
Why Stanford might win: The best way to beat Washington State is to attack its defense through the air, something the Cardinal is capable of doing. The Cougars are pulling up the Pac-10 rear in pass efficiency defense, allowing 255 yards a game and too many long balls. Whether it’s Ostrander or Pritchard in the huddle, the Stanford quarterback will effectively work the Wazzu defense with a gifted trio of receivers that includes Richard Sherman, Evan Moore, and Mark Bradford. The Cougar offense has sputtered since Pac-10 play began, averaging only 17 points in league games.
Why Washington State might win: Without any threat of a running game or blockers that can keep the quarterback upright, Stanford will have a hard time reaching double digits. The Cardinal has scored just 15 points over the last two games, largely because of backfield injuries and an interior that’s ahead of only Notre Dame in sacks allowed. The Cougars likes to attack from all angles, which will present nightmares for the entire Stanford offense. Wazzu’s offensive problems will be masked on Saturday by a thin Stanford D that ranks ninth in the league in total defense and eighth in scoring defense.
Who to watch: Washington State’s switch to a 3-4 defense created a job for LB Andy Mattingly. Good for Mattingly. And good for the Cougars. The 6-4, 240-pound sophomore has made the most of the opportunity, racking up 10 tackles for loss and seven sacks over the last four games. Against a brutal set of Stanford blockers, Mattingly will spend a large part of his evening camping out in the Cardinal backfield.
What will happen: Forget the carbon copy records of these two schools. While Washington State is playing well, Stanford is regressing. Things will remain that way, as Kevin McCall rushes for more than 100 yards and the Cougar defense will continue to recover from its early season woes.
CFN Prediction: Washington State 30 … Stanford 10 ... Line: Washington State -10.5.
Must See Rating: (5 Seinfeld: Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ... 2

Washington (3-6) at Oregon State (5-4) 10:15 EST
Why to watch: After losing badly to USC last week, Oregon State gets its second chance to become bowl eligible. It better come through now because after this weekend’s game in Corvallis, the Beavers will finish the regular season at Washington State and at Oregon, neither of which will be easy. Oregon State enters this week’s game without starting QB Sean Canfield, who got treated like a piñata by the Trojans, but do get RB Yvenson Bernard back from the injured list. There won’t be a significant drop-off from Canfield to Lyle Moevao, who has more mobility and played extensively in the first three games. Washington finally snapped its six-game losing streak last week, getting a monster day from RB Louis Rankin in a tidy win against Stanford. It was feared the Huskies would be without their triggerman this week as well, but Jake Locker is expected to play, allowing him to pad his school-record for rushing yards by a quarterback.
Why Washington might win: Winning on The Farm last week did wonders for the psyche of a Husky team that had grown tired of hearing about its losing streak. U-Dub ran the ball well with Locker and Rankin, and played its best defensive game of the season, holding the Cardinal to nine points while racking up six sacks. The Huskies will create pressure again this week with ends Greyson Gunheim and Daniel Te’o-Nesheim getting the best of an Oregon State offensive line that’s 99^th nationally in pass protection.
Why Oregon State might win: Save for a couple of games at the end of September, the Beavers D has been reliable all year, leading the Pac-10 in sacks and run defense. With a veteran group patrolling the front seven, it’ll contain Locker and cause Rankin’s heroics to be a one-game thing. Bernard’s return from a shoulder injury will be the key for an Oregon State offense that will take the pressure off Moevao by running right at the Pac-10’s softest run defense.
Who to watch: Oregon State senior Derrick Doggett is one of the most underrated linebackers in the country, a distinction that won’t stick once he gets to the NFL. A terrific all-around athlete, he excels in run defense and is an asset on passing downs. Doggett will be one of the keys to stopping Locker, who’s begun to play as if it’s already his sophomore season.
What will happen: With the USC game in the rear view mirror, Oregon State will resume playing winning football, getting 125 yards and two touchdowns from Bernard, and a suffocating effort from the veteran defense.
CFN Prediction: Oregon State 28 … Washington 17... Line: Oregon State -7
Must See Rating: (5 Seinfeld: Season 9 - 1 Bee Movie) ... 2.5