Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 17

The world will be watching on Thursday night as Oregon tries to make a national statement in the BCS Championship chase. It'll also be a showcase for Willie Tuitama and a high-powered Arizona offense that should give the Ducks a few problems. Check out the analysis of this game as well as the previews and predictions for the rest of the Week 12 Pac-10 Games.

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 46-18 ... ATS: 32-31-1

Pac 10 Game of the Week   

Pac 10 Thursday, November 15th

Oregon (8-1) at Arizona (4-6)   9:00 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: Who hit the bigger jackpot this week, ESPN for unknowingly scheduling the nation’s No. 2 team, or Oregon, which gets a rare national spotlight to attract more supporters?  It’s a toss-up with both entities scoring big.  The Ducks are all the rage after moving up a spot in the rankings, putting them smack dab in the middle of the debate over which teams belong in the BCS title game.  Last weekend’s bye was a blessing for Oregon, but especially QB Dennis Dixon, who used the time off to rest the knee he injured in the win over Arizona State.  With a good showing Thursday night, he has a chance to go from Heisman frontrunner to Heisman lock.  For Arizona, this will be its bowl game, a massive opportunity for the school and head coach Mike Stoops to make a statement by knocking off one of this year’s elite teams.  Winners of two straight over Washington and UCLA, Stoops has his Wildcats playing well late in the season, a trend during his Tucson tenure.
Why Oregon might win: While the Arizona offense has been improving under the guidance of new coordinator Sonny Dykes, the defense remains a sore spot that’ll be exploited by Dixon, RB Jonathan Stewart, and the high-powered Duck offense.  The Wildcats have a couple of quality players in CB Antoine Cason and LB Spencer Larsen, but as a group, the defense allows too many big plays, and is just 67^th nationally in scoring defense.  Oregon is No. 8 in the country in sacks, creating a mismatch with a beatable Arizona O-line and headaches for QB Willie Tuitama.
Why Arizona might win: The Wildcats aren’t going to stop the Ducks, but it can outgun them if Tuitama has time to throw.  The Pac-10’s most potent passing has begun to hum, cranking out 851 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two games.  Receivers Mike Thomas and Terrell Turner, and TE Rob Gronkowski, will cause downfield problems for an Oregon secondary that’s been thrown on all season, and is ninth in the Pac-10 in pass defense despite getting help from a hellacious pass rush.  In a track meet, the Cats now have an offense that can keep pace with the Ducks.
Who to watch: If Tuitama has time to set himself in the pocket, Arizona could make this game very interesting, but he’ll likely have to make quick throws and move around a bit to avoid the onslaught.  Hoping to make the quarterback uncomfortable will be Oregon DE Nick Reed, who’s quietly having a breakout junior season with a league-leading 18.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks. He should be drooling this week while watching film of the Arizona pass protection.
What will happen: Forget about Oregon looking past Arizona after it put USC and Arizona State in the rear view mirror; not with the entire nation having access to its game in primetime.  The Ducks, however, will struggle in the early going with a Wildcat team that has a little motivation of its own.  While both schools will land punches, Dixon and Stewart will deliver the knockout blows in the second half, helping Oregon hang on late despite over 400 passing yards from Tuitama.
CFN Prediction: Oregon 34 … Arizona 27 ... Line: Oregon -12
Must See Rating: (5 On HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State: The Rivalry"  - 1 Writer strike induced reruns) ...4

Pac 10 Saturday, November 17th

California (6-4) at Washington (3-7)    3:30 EST, ABC
Why to watch: Cal is officially an afterthought in the Pac-10 after losing to USC Saturday night.  Yeah, they’re the only team in the country to beat Oregon, the nation’s No. 2 team, but they’ve also lost four of the last five games to slide out of the Top 25 and into a sixth-place tie in the conference with Arizona.  It’s going to take two wins and some help for the Bears to avoid a second-tier postseason game, such as the Emerald or Las Vegas Bowl, a far cry from the projections when the team was 5-0 and ranked No. 2 in the polls.  Washington won’t be bowling this December, a familiar refrain about a program that hasn’t gotten an invite in five years.  As if things couldn’t get any worse for the team that’s 1-7 since Sept. 15, the Huskies will likely be without injured QB Jake Locker, the one bright spot in an otherwise forgettable season.  Locker suffered a stinger in last weekend’s loss to Oregon State, and his return for the final two games is uncertain.  In his place would step fifth-year senior Carl Bonnell, who’s no stranger to live action.
Why Cal might win: If the multi-dimensional Locker can’t play or is limited, that’ll be one less thing for the Bear defense to worry about.  Bonnell has a big arm, but he’s not going to leave the pocket unless he has no choice.  The Cal offense which has misfired for more than a month will get back on track versus a Washington defense that can’t stop the run, and has allowed more points than any other Pac-10 team.  The Bears will lean on the ground game to set up the pass, taking some pressure off QB Nate Longshore, who’s been catching heat for his recent play.
Why Washington might win: Whether it’s Locker or Bonnell, the Huskies will move the ball on Cal, who gets no pressure on the quarterback, and ranks seventh in the league in run and pass efficiency defense.  Every so often Husky RB Louis Rankin will explode with a big game, and the Bear defense presents just such an opportunity on Saturday afternoon.  On the outside, well-sized WR Marcel Reece will give fits to a Cal secondary that’s prone to breakdowns.
Who to watch: It’s about time for Cal WR DeSean Jackson to erupt on a flimsy Washington pass defense, taking over the game and reminding everyone that he’s still one of the most exciting players in America.  A hand injury and poor support at quarterback have limited him to just two noteworthy games, but he’s long overdue to deliver a couple of highlight reel plays.
What will happen: Washington will be a welcome sight for the beleaguered Bears, who’ll deliver their best game on offense in a month.  Justin Forsett will roll for 150 yards and two scores on the ground, making life a little easier for Longshore and the passing attack.
CFN Prediction: California 37 … Washington 17  ... Line: California -7
Must See Rating: (5 On HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State: The Rivalry"  - 1 Writer strike induced reruns) ...2

Oregon State (6-4) at Washington State (4-6)   6:30 EST
Why to watch: If Washington State can beat Oregon State Saturday evening, it still has a chance to finish 6-6, and swipe the bowl berth that the Beavers appear to have locked up.  The Cougars have played much better over the last three weeks, beating UCLA and Stanford, and nearly upsetting Cal.  While the Wazzu defense has stiffened, the offense has overcome the loss of top RB Dwight Tardy with Alex Brink’s passes and the running of Chris Ivory and Kevin McCall.  Will it be enough to save Bill Doba’s job?  Stay tuned.  The Beavers became bowl eligible with last week’s 29-23 win over Washington, but a seventh victory would keep the team from sweating things out when bids start getting distributed.  They’ll be without starting QB Sean Canfield for a second straight game and three defensive backs for a half because of their roles in a fight with Washington a week ago.
Why Oregon State might win: The only way Washington State will move the ball is through the air, but that won’t be easy with the pass rush the Beavers are capable of bringing.  Oregon State has had at least two sacks in every game and 39 for the season, a level of heat that’ll prevent Brink from getting set in the pocket.  Offensively, RB Yvenson Bernard will put a dent in the Pac-10’s eighth-ranked run defense, handling the ball 35 times and wearing out the Cougar defense.  Wazzu likes to blitz, which the Beavers will counter with short passes to Bernard and versatile WR James Rodgers.
Why Washington State might win: The Cougars are going to turn loose Brink and his deep corps of receivers on an average Oregon State pass defense that’ll be without starting cornerback Brandon Hughes and reserves Bryan Payton and James Dockery for two quarters.  Wazzu won’t run the ball on the nation’s top-ranked run defense, so it’ll put its fate in the hands of Brink, the school’s all-time leading passer.  In Canfield’s place, Lyle Moevao wasn’t especially competent last week, a trend that’ll continue against an improving Washington State D.  The Cougars can bring pressure from all angles, particularly when going up against a mediocre Beaver O-line that’s 104^th nationally in sacks allowed.
Who to watch: Neither offense has been particularly crisp in the red zone, so each school’s kickers have a chance to be the hero this weekend.  While Washington State’s Romeen Abdollmohammodi has gone 7-of-7 over the last two games, Oregon State’s Alexis Serna is coming off one of the best games of his brilliant career, a 5-of-5 effort in the defeat of Washington.
What will happen: In a tight, sometimes sloppy, game, Oregon State will gut out a win behind a couple of rushing touchdowns from Bernard and four field goals off the right foot of Serna.
CFN Prediction: Oregon State 26 … Washington State 23 ... Line: Washington State -2
Must See Rating: (5 On HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State: The Rivalry"  - 1 Writer strike induced reruns) ...2