Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Nov. 24

Happy Thanksgiving. Sure the pros get their time in the spotlight on Turkey Day, but the big game is in Phoenix where Keegan Herring and Arizona State can make a huge statement in the national title hunt tonight against USC. Check out the previews and predictions for the Week 13 Pac-10 Games.

Pac 10  
Arizona | Arizona St |  California | Oregon | Oregon St
Stanford | UCLA | USC | Washington | Washington St 

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 47-20 ... ATS: 34-32-1

Pac 10 Game of the Week   

Pac 10 Thursday, November 22nd

USC (8-2) at Arizona State (9-1)  8:00 EST, ESPN
Why to watch: If you’ve got just one game you can watch on Thanksgiving, DVR the NFL’s offerings, and set aside three hours for this Pac-10 showdown in Tempe.  In front of a sellout crowd, No. 11 USC and No. 6 Arizona State will be battling in primetime to stay alive in the race for a conference championship and an at-large invitation to a BCS bowl game.  Oregon’s loss at Arizona last Thursday night opened the door for the Sun Devils to take over first place in the Pac-10, and the Trojans to stay in contention just a game behind.  With two more wins, Arizona State will do now worse than its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1996, with a spot in the National Championship game not yet out of reach.  A similar formula applies to Troy, which can still wrap up its sixth straight Pac-10 title with two more victories and an Oregon loss.  Now matter what the Ducks do, at 10-2, the Trojans will be a lock for a major bowl game, possibly right back in Arizona at the Fiesta Bowl.
Why USC might win: The Trojans will win this game at the point of attack, schooling a couple of questionable Arizona State interior lines.  The Sun Devils are 118^th nationally in sacks allowed, a bad omen for QB Rudy Carpenter, who’ll spend much of the evening trying to dodge DE Lawrence Jackson, DT Sedrick Ellis, and the rest of the nation’s third-ranked defense.  Without RB Ryan Torian, Arizona State no longer has the type of offensive threat that can do damage to a defense that’s No. 10 against the run, and has allowed just three touchdown passes in the last seven games.  On offense, the USC line is as healthy as it’s been all season, which will be parlayed into pocket time for QB John David Booty, and a second straight big game for RB Chauncey Washington.
Why Arizona State might win: Nothing about the USC offense has been especially impressive this season.  Save for the Notre Dame game, the Trojans haven’t scored more than 27 points since the Sept. 22 rout of Washington State, turning the ball over too often and lacking execution in all phases.  The Oregon game aside, the Sun Devil defense has been solid all year, ranking third in the league in total defense and second in scoring defense.  Carpenter is fine after spraining his thumb in the win over UCLA, and the running tandem of Keegan Herring and Dmitri Nance has filled in well since Torain went down with a season-ending injury.
Who to watch: For all the attention that LSU DT Glenn Dorsey receives, USC’s Ellis may be his equal in terms of shedding blockers and creating backfield havoc.  A special player on the inside, he possesses the quickness and raw power to eat up the Arizona State linemen Thursday night, and destroy the Sun Devils’ offensive gameplan.  If No. 49 is allowed to roam free, it’ll be a very long night for Carpenter and the ASU offense.
What will happen: Once Oregon lost last week, USC began to smell a chance at redemption in an otherwise disappointing campaign.  The Trojans will capitalize on their new-found opportunity, dominating the Sun Devil offense from start to finish, putting Carpenter on the carpet about a dozen times.
CFN Prediction: USC 27 … Arizona State 20 ... Line: USC -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...4.5

Pac 10 Saturday, November 24th

Oregon (8-2) at UCLA (5-5) 3:30 EST, ABC, Saturday, November 24
Why to watch: With one awkwardly planted foot, the entire tone of the Oregon season changed.  The Ducks lost to Arizona last Thursday night, but more important, they lost offensive catalyst Dennis Dixon for the balance of the season.  If Tucson was any indication, life after Dennis isn’t going to be much fun.  With veteran Brady Leaf at the controls, the offense was sloppy, predictable, and, well, harmless.  Yet, despite falling out of the national title picture, Oregon still has plenty to play for, such as a Pac-10 title if Arizona State loses, or an at-large BCS berth if it can defeat UCLA and Oregon State over the next two weeks.  The Bruins are coming off a much-needed bye week, looking to snap a three-game losing streak that has the program on the brink of bowl extinction, and the coach on the brink of career extinction.  If UCLA is going to do an about-face, it’ll do so with Osaar Rasshan taking snaps, the third-stringer behind injured hurlers Ben Olson and Patrick Cowan.
Why Oregon might win: UCLA is a mess.  The dinged up offense has produced just six touchdowns in the last five games, and is being piloted by a former walk-on that was playing wide receiver in the summer.  The usually reliable defense has been spotty of late, particularly in run defense.  And the offensive line will have issues containing a Duck D that’ll bring pressure from all angles, ranking second nationally to only Georgia Tech in tackles for loss.  As bad as Leaf was last week, he’ll be better with 10 days to prepare, while RB Jonathan Stewart is still the type of player that can take.
Why UCLA might win: Yes, one player can make that bring a difference.  With Dixon, Oregon was bordering on being a great football team, but without him, the Ducks are an ordinary bowl-eligible squad.  The UCLA defense will take advantage by blitzing the heavy-legged Leaf, forcing him into costly mistakes.  Although the Oregon offensive line has excelled this fall, part of the credit goes to Dixon, who had a knack for escaping pressure and making yards with his legs.  With DE Bruce Davis flying around the edge, and LBs Christian Taylor and Reggie Carter showing blitz, the Duck passing game will be ineffective for a second consecutive week.
Who to watch: Dixon isn’t the only Oregon weapon on the shelf these days.  He’s got company, including RB Jeremiah Johnson, and receivers Cameron Colvin and Brian Paysinger.  If the Ducks have any chance of playing a game in January, it’s incumbent upon RB Jonathan Stewart to carry the beleaguered offense on his back.  Dynamic, yet oft-injured, the junior must find a way to take the heat off Leaf, despite suffering a slightly sprained ankle in last week’s game.
What will happen: If UCLA wasn’t in such bad shape, Oregon would be even more vulnerable in this week’s game.  The Ducks will survive, however, with a revised script that demands bigger roles for Stewart and the defense.
CFN Prediction: Oregon 28 … UCLA 20 ... Line: Oregon -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...3

Notre Dame (2-9) at Stanford (3-7)   3:30 EST, ESPN2
Why to watch: Well, Notre Dame couldn’t beat a service academy in 2007, but it does have a chance to go 2-1 versus the Pac-10 with a win over Stanford Saturday afternoon.  Even more important, the Irish has an opportunity to take a two-game winning streak into the long off-season, one nugget of positive news leading into spring ball.  Notre Dame is coming off its most complete game of the season, a 28-7 win over Duke that featured a breakthrough performance from freshman QB Jimmy Clausen.  Stanford has lost three games in-a-row, failing to build on the Oct. 6 stunner over USC.  The Cardinal has been hampered by injuries in recent weeks, but could get back starting RB Anthony Kimble from a shoulder injury that’s sidelined him for the last month.  While Stanford won’t be playing a postseason game, it still has a chance to beat the Trojans, the Irish, and the Cal Bears in the same season.
Why Notre Dame might win: By its standards, the Irish are hot, getting support from Clausen, the running game, and the defense on the same day.  Okay, so the opponent was Duke, but the Blue Devils live in the same neighborhood as Stanford.  The Cardinal pulls up the Pac-10 rear in pass defense, which will keep Clausen clicking for one more week, finding freshman WR Duval Kamara and talented TE John Carlson.  Stanford’s best threat on offense, the passing attack, will be neutralized by an improving Notre Dame secondary that yields just 162 yards a game through the air.
Why Stanford might win: The Cardinal has excelled all year at pressuring the quarterback, bad news for a Notre Dame offensive line that’s last in the country in sacks allowed.  Linemen Pannel Egboh and Udeme Udofia, and LB Clinton Snyder will force Clausen out of the pocket, making him complete passes on the run.  Whether or not Kimble gets back on the field, the Stanford offense will perk up at the mere sight of a Notre Dame defense that’s had two sacks in the last five games, while slipping to No. 96 nationally in run defense.
Who to watch: True freshman Chike Amajoyi came to Stanford as a running back prospect, but has been playing as if he plans on being one of the building blocks of the Cardinal defense.  Since switching to linebacker in August, he’s evolved into a playmaker, collecting 35 tackles, 7.5 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks as a part-time starter.  With more reps and a little seasoning, Amajoyi figures to expand his role on the defensive side of the ball.
What will happen: Last week may have been a step in the right direction for Notre Dame, but it’s not quite ready for a winning streak, even with a game on The Farm.  The Cardinal will gut out an ugly win, getting an inspired effort from an underrated defense.
CFN Prediction: Stanford 27 … Notre Dame 20... Line: Stanford -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...2

Washington State (4-7) at Washington (4-7)  7:00 EST
Why to watch: It’s the 100^th meeting for the Apple Cup, a game that generates considerable interest in the state of Washington, yet rarely registers a blip on the radar outside the region.  For the fourth straight year, neither team will be bowling, so a win against a rival will make an extended offseason just a little more bearable.  The two programs enter the game with different frames of mind, Washington having blasted Cal, 37-23, and Wazzu getting ambushed by Oregon State, 52-17.  Without starting QB Jake Locker, the Huskies simply lined up and ran the ball right at the Bears, getting 224 yards from senior Louis Rankin and 121 yards from his heir apparent, freshman Brandon Johnson.  After making progress in November, the Cougars regressed a week ago, turning the ball over eight times in a dreadful display in Pullman.  A sub plot to Saturday night’s clash is whether this will be the last game for Bill Doba, who’s 29-29 in five seasons at Washington State.
Why Washington State might win: Last week was an aberration for the Cougars, who’d been clicking on offense, and had gone three consecutive games without allowing a touchdown pass.  Wazzu couldn’t overcome seven picks by Alex Brink and Gary Rogers, but that level of carelessness won’t occur this week in Seattle.  The Cougars will attack a 93^rd-ranked Washington defense that’s terrible against the run and inexperienced in the secondary.  Brink will finish his career on a high note, hooking up repeatedly with receivers Brandon Gibson and Michael Bumpus, and TE Jed Collins.
Why Washington might win: Run, run, run.  Tyrone Willingham likes playing smash-mouth, and has some of the ingredients to make it work this weekend.  The Huskies will keep it on the ground, feeding a steady diet of Rankin and Johnson to a Washington State defense that’s eighth in the Pac-10 in run defense and tenth in scoring defense, giving up more than 40 points five times this year.  When the Cougars press up to stop the run, fifth-year senior QB Carl Bonnell will play catch with WR Marcel Reece, one of the heroes of last year’s Apple Cup.
Who to watch: Johnson’s first extensive action of his true freshman year gave Washington fans a glimpse of what the backfield might look like over the next few seasons.  A physical runner that pass protects surprisingly well for a rookie, he and Locker are going to wear out opposing Pac-10 defenses for the foreseeable future.
What will happen: Games between these two scores are typically tight, and this one will be no different.  Bonnell will find Reece for the game-winning score in the fourth quarter, sweet redemption for a quarterback that was vilified for originally signing a letter-of-intent with Washington State before changing his mind and transferring to U-Dub.
CFN Prediction: Washington 34 … Washington State 28 ... Line: Washington -5.5
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...2.5