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Oregon State (7-4) at Oregon
(8-3)
4:30
EST, ESPN2
Why to watch: There’s no
truth to the rumor that this
year’s 111th playing
of the Civil War between Oregon
and Oregon State has as many
casualties as the actual Civil
War. It just seems that way.
Both schools have been ravaged
by injuries, especially on
offense. And especially at
Oregon, which was forced to
break the seal on its fourth and
fifth-string quarterbacks in
last week’s loss to UCLA. How
bad are things in Eugene? A
healthy Brady Leaf would be
cause for a parade down
Centennial Blvd. A contender
for a national championship
before QB Dennis Dixon tore his
ACL in Arizona, the Ducks are
now battling with their rival
for December destinations, such
as the Holiday, Sun, Las Vegas,
or San Francisco Bowl. Oregon
State is in better shape, but
not by much. The Beavers are
expected to be without the three
players that were supposed to be
this year’s offensive stars, QB
Sean Canfield, RB Yvenson
Bernard, and WR Sammie
Stroughter. Still, the Beavers
have ridden the play of a nasty
defense to five wins in the last
six games, and have a
mathematical shot of finishing
in a four-way tie atop the
Pac-10. Considering where the
two programs were just a few
weeks ago, beating Oregon and
finishing with the same record
as the Ducks would stamp the
season a success for Oregon
State.
Why Oregon State might win:
Oregon was shut out for the
first time in 22 years last
week, a testament to how
battered the offense is these
days. With redshirt freshman
Cody Kempt likely to get the nod
behind center and RB Jonathan
Stewart feeling the pain, the
Ducks may lay a goose egg for a
second straight week. The
Beavers are feasting on Pac-10
offenses, leading the league in
sacks and interceptions, and the
nation in run defense. If
Oregon can’t establish the run
against this veteran unit, it’s
hard to have any faith in Kempt,
who was 6-of-23 for 52 yards and
two interceptions in an
emergency role.
Why Oregon might win: The
home team has won the last 10
games in this series, so home
field advantage is especially
important when these two schools
meet. Although you can no
longer count on the Duck
offense, the defense has been
picking up the slack, creating
turnovers and cranking up the
pass rush behind ends Nick Reed,
Will Tukuafu, and Jeremy Gibbs.
Oregon State will have troubles
of its own generating offense
with Bernard on the shelf and
Lyle Moevao trying to move the
ball on Oregon corners Jairus
Byrd and Walter Thurmond.
Who to watch: Tukuafu has
come to life for an Oregon
program that needs help from the
defense now more than ever. A
gifted athlete at 6-4 and 280
pounds, the junior college
transfer whipped the UCLA line a
week ago for a couple of sacks
and a bunch of pressures.
Against a Beaver front wall
that’s 103rd
nationally in sacks allowed,
Tukuafu will remain hot,
especially since Reed is getting
so much attention on the other
side.
What will happen:
Although the offenses will be
executing with all of the
precision of a spring game, the
play on the field will be no
less intense. Oregon today is
nothing like Oregon of a month
ago, so the Ducks will come
through with a team effort,
getting help from the defense
and special teams to edge out
Oregon State.
CFN Prediction:
Oregon
23 ... Oregon State 17
... Line:
Oregon -4.5
Must See Rating: (5 Nirvana
Unplugged, now on DVD - 1 Mr.
Bean's Holiday, now on DVD) ...
3
California (6-5) at Stanford
(3-8) 7:00 EST
Why to watch: The only
way Cal’s nightmare season can
get any worse is if it loses to
rival Stanford for the first
time since 2001. A contender
for the national championship in
mid October, the Bears have
slumped badly to five losses in
six games, showing an inability
to snap out of their funk or
stop an opposing running game.
Faced with true adversity for
the first time in the Jeff
Tedford era, Cal has responded
poorly, reaching a low point in
the 37-23 loss to Washington two
weeks ago. Still, if the
program can build some momentum
in the next two games, it has
enough young talent to be trendy
again by the time preseason
magazines hit newsstands next
summer. Like its Big Game
rival, Stanford has gone 1-5
since early October, but has
looked much worse during the
freefall. Since beating Arizona
on Oct. 20, the Cardinal has
managed to score just 46 points,
barely displaying a pulse in any
of the four losses, and blowing
a game to Notre Dame last
Saturday that it could have
won. Has the program made
progress in Jim Harbaugh’s
rookie year on The Farm? Some,
but not quite as much as fans
had hoped after shocking USC and
entire nation.
Why Cal might win: The
Bears may be in hibernation, but
they still enjoy a huge edge in
talent over Stanford on both
sides of the ball. C Alex Mack
and his linemates up front will
open holes for RB Justin Forsett,
while giving time to QB Nate
Longshore to pick apart a
Cardinal pass defense that ranks
last in the Pac-10. At long
last, the shaken Cal defense
gets to face an offense it can
manage, a Stanford attack that
has no running game, hasn’t
thrown a touchdown pass in over
a month, and averages a
league-worst 19 points a game.
Why Stanford might win:
For reasons that range from
conservative play-calling to
Longshore’s nagging ankle
injury, Cal hasn’t been Cal on
offense since September. The
Cardinal will add to the Bears’
troubles with a sneaky good pass
rush that creates pressure from
every level, and a defense
that’s made noticeable strides
since September. Sure, it’ll
get burned at least once or
twice by WRs DeSean Jackson and
Lavelle Hawkins, but Stanford
will get after the gimpy
Longshore by blitzing LBs Pat
Maynor and Clinton Snyder, and
occasionally turning loose S Bo
McNally. The healthy return of
RB Anthony Kimble, and the
possibility that senior T.C.
Ostrander will be under center,
are good signs for a Cardinal
offense searching for positive
news.
Who to watch: If
Longshore is going to have time
to exploit the Stanford
secondary, his line must
continue to pass protect as well
as any unit in the country.
Despite not having a mobile
quarterback in the pocket, the
Bears have yielded just nine
sacks all season, third fewest
in the country. They’ll get
tested on Saturday by the
Cardinal’s aggressive schemes,
and by DE Pannel Egboh, one of
the rising pass rushers in the
league. The junior has tight
end quickness on a 6-6,
275-pound frame, and is enjoying
a breakout year, racking up 13.5
tackles for loss and six sacks.
What will happen: At long
last, Cal will have something to
cheer about, but it’s not going
to be easy. It rarely is in The
Big Game. The Bears will get
just enough on offense from
Forsett to ensure themselves a
consolation bowl game in
December.
CFN Prediction:
California
31 ... Stanford 13 ...
Line:
California -13
Must See Rating: (5 Nirvana
Unplugged, now on DVD - 1 Mr.
Bean's Holiday, now on DVD) ...
2
Arizona (5-6) at Arizona State
(9-2)
8:00 EST, ESPN2
Why to watch: It’s been a
long time since so much was at
stake in a game between these
two rivals, adding some juice to
an already charged atmosphere.
Yeah, Arizona State got taken
down a peg by USC in front of a
national TV audience, but it
still has a chance to play in
the Rose Bowl if the Trojans gag
versus UCLA, or earn a Fiesta
Bowl berth as an at-large BCS
selection. Neither is possible
if the Sun Devils can’t shake
off last week’s 44-24 loss, and
get past Arizona Saturday
night. For the Wildcats,
they’re one win away from a bowl
game that’s eluded head coach
Mike Stoops since he arrived,
and the program since 1998.
Arizona is hot, having won three
straight over Washington, UCLA,
and Oregon, but that won’t
resonate unless it picks up that
sixth win. Finally returning to
the postseason could be a
turning point for a young
Wildcat program that has plenty
of upside.
Why Arizona might win:
The Wildcats’ recent success has
been fueled by a passing game
that’s churned out 10 touchdown
passes and more than 1,000 yards
during the three-game winning
streak. That’s cause for
serious concern for a spotty
Arizona State secondary that’s
allowed four touchdown passes in
two of the last three games. QB
Willie Tuitama will continue to
sizzle, hooking up with WR Mike
Thomas and TE Rob Gronkowski,
while RB Nic Grigsby keeps the
defense honest with the threat
of a running game. With two
weeks to prepare for the Sun
Devils’ abysmal pass protectors,
Stoops will concoct a way to
make QB Rudy Carpenter’s life
miserable for three hours.
Why Arizona State might win:
Would we even be talking about
Arizona as a bowl contender if
Oregon QB Dennis Dixon didn’t
get hurt in Tucson two weeks
ago? The Wildcats are wildly
inconsistent, lacking a reliable
running game and suffering too
many breakdowns on defense. For
all of the problems they’ve had
recently, the Sun Devils still
boast the nation’s No. 17 pass
efficiency defense and, in
Carpenter, one the league’s most
efficient passers. Carpenter
should have success throwing the
ball to whatever side of the
field Arizona CB Antoine Cason
isn’t on.
Who to watch: For three
years now, LB Spencer Larsen,
the Pac-10’s leading tackler,
has been a warrior for the
Arizona program, hitting
everything within reach, and
playing for an opportunity, such
as the one he’ll have Saturday
night. All of the Wildcat
seniors have been pining for a
chance to play in a bowl game,
so expect to see an even higher
level of intensity and ferocity
with so much hanging in the
balance. Arizona State
desperately wants to establish a
presence between the tackles,
but it’ll have to get past No.
51 first.
What will happen: Arizona
State is still thinking about
USC and what might’ve been.
Arizona is thinking about its
version of the Holy Grail, a
bowl game. The differing
mindsets will be evident in
Tempe Saturday night. The
Wildcats are about to break
through against an overrated Sun
Devil squad, riding Tuitama’s
arm and a blitzing defense to
win No. 6.
CFN Prediction:
Arizona 31 ... Arizona
State 28 ...
Line: Arizona State -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 Nirvana
Unplugged, now on DVD - 1 Mr.
Bean's Holiday, now on DVD) ...
3.5
Washington (4-8) at Hawaii
(11-0) 11:30 EST, ESPN2
Why to watch: It’s all
there for Hawaii if it can win
just one more game. The WAC
championship already in the
vault after disposing of Boise
State, the nation’s lone
unbeaten can secure a spot in a
BCS bowl game by taking care of
a Washington team that’s gone
2-8 since raising expectations
with a 2-0 start. By climbing
to No. 12 in the latest BCS
standings, Hawaii is poised to
join Utah and Boise State as the
only schools from outside major
conferences to play in one of
college football’s five
big-money postseason games.
Heisman voters will also be
paying attention to Warrior QB
Colt Brennan, who’s accounted
for 41 touchdowns, and became
the NCAA career leader in
touchdown passes during last
Friday’s blockbuster victory.
Playing the role of the
Washington Generals will be the
Washington Huskies, a program
that can take some momentum into
the offseason by spoiling
Hawaii’s postseason. Even after
blowing the Apple Cup to
Washington State, head coach
Tyrone Willingham is safe, but
certainly not flourishing with
this four-win campaign.
Why Washington might win:
With QB Jake Locker healthy and
RB Louis Rankin running well,
the Huskies can compete in any
game. The offense has played
well in the second half of the
year, averaging 33 points, and
showing a level of explosiveness
necessary to keep pace in this
type of game. While Washington
was tuning up in the Pac-10 and
against the nation’s toughest
schedule, Hawaii was playing WAC
opponents and a bunch of
punching bags out of
conference. Facing a team from
a major conference for the first
time in 2007, the Warriors will
not be prepared for the size and
the speed of the Huskies.
Why Hawaii might win:
Well, if you plan on slowing
down the Warrior passing game,
you better have a few stoppers
in the secondary, hardly
Washington’s calling card. The
Huskies are 87th
nationally in pass efficiency
defense, allowing 22 touchdowns
passes, 14 in the last five
games. Just last Saturday,
Wazzu’s Alex Brink toasted the
Huskies for 399 yards and five
touchdown passes, a performance
that won’t be lost on Hawaii
coach June Jones. Brennan will
pick apart U-Dub, playing catch
with a deep receiving corps that
features four players with at
least 50 grabs. Do not sleep on
an underrated Warrior D that
leads the WAC in sacks, tackles
for loss, and pass efficiency
defense.
Who to watch: Sure,
Hawaii is all about the passing
game, but the defense has done
its part in the perfect start.
Despite popular opinion, the
Warriors are not a finesse
group, featuring a powerful
front seven that can control the
line of scrimmage, and live in
opposing backfields. Leading
the way are all-star linebackers
Adam Leonard and Solomon
Elimimian, the team’s leading
tacklers. Leonard, in
particular, is a complete
linebacker, who can press up to
stop the run or drop into
coverage equally well.
What will happen: Aloha
Stadium is sold out. The home
team is on the brink of
history. Hawaii is not losing
this game. In fact, just to be
sure they don’t fall below No.
12 in the BCS rankings, the
Warriors will keep the pedal to
the metal for 60 minutes, hoping
to impress any remaining voters
that stick around past midnight.
CFN Prediction:
Hawaii
44 ... Washington 24 ...
Line: Hawaii -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 Nirvana
Unplugged, now on DVD - 1 Mr.
Bean's Holiday, now on DVD) ...
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