SEC Fearless Predictions, Nov. 17
Georgia QB Matthew Stafford
Georgia QB Matthew Stafford
Posted Nov 14, 2007

Previews and Predictions for the Week 12 SEC Games.

East  Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | South Carolina | Tennessee | Vanderbilt 
West Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU | Ole Miss | Miss State

SEC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1Sept. 8 | Sept. 15Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6Oct. 13 | Oct. 20Oct. 27 | Nov. 3Nov. 10 | Nov. 24Dec. 1 

How are the picks so far? SU: 65-17 ... ATS: 43-27-2

SEC Fearless Predictions, Week 12, Part 2

SEC Game of the Week

Kentucky (7-3) at Georgia (8-2)  12:30 PM GamePlan
Why to watch
: It's all still there for Georgia to take. The Bulldogs, after shocking Florida and Auburn in their last two SEC games by a combined score of 87 to 50, are still in a position to win the East by beating Kentucky and then hoping for a Tennessee loss to either UK or Vanderbilt. Even if the Vols win out, Georgia is playing well enough, and has gotten high enough in the BCS rankings, currently at nine with a chance to move up several spots with the matchups ahead for the top Big 12 teams, to snag an at-large BCS bid. Before dealing with Georgia Tech in two weeks, avenging last year's 24-20 loss to the Wildcats is the first goal. UK halted a streak of three losses in four games with a less-than-impressive 27-20 win over Vanderbilt, and now it has to come up with one more win to assure itself of a bowl game. If the Cats lose this week, and lose next week to Tennessee, an ugly second half slide might mean a Mississippi State, South Carolina or Arkansas could take one of the SEC's bowls from them. Kentucky's offense has to get back on track, while Georgia's attack has to keep on rolling.
Why Kentucky might win: Could Georgia be on letdown alert? Even though the Dawgs have everything to play for, they can't help but be a little bit down after the emotional win over Auburn and with the rivalry date with Georgia Tech to follow. The Bulldog secondary came up big last week against Brandon Cox and the Tiger passing game, but the UK air attack, and receiving corps, are far better and should be able to push the ball consistently deep. Georgia faced one team, Tennessee, that had a passing game that was working, and Erik Ainge had a fantastic day. UK should be able to throw the ball to keep up in any sort of a shootout, but ...
Why Georgia might win: ... the offense has to be far better than it's been over the past month. Andre Woodson hasn't been Andre Woodson since throwing for 415 yards and five touchdowns against Florida, and the running game hasn't shown up since rolling for 209 yards on Florida Atlantic in late September. Worse yet, the run defense has had a consistently bad month, giving up 200 yards or more, while the Georgia running game has been fantastic since the emergence of Knowshown Moreno. With Thomas Brown back in the mix, the Bulldogs have a 1-2 rushing punch that should be able to control the game from the start.
Who to watch: Andre Woodson has been fine, but he hasn't been the Heisman-caliber playmaker who had the lead in the race early on in the year. He needed a bounceback game after a three-pick game in the loss to Mississippi State, and while he was fine against Vanderbilt with 222 yards and a touchdown, he wasn't able to overcome a mediocre day from the running game. To beat Georgia, he's going to have to not only be perfect, but he'll have to be explosive. He might have to throw for at least 300 yards to overcome the certain-strong day from the Bulldog running game.
What will happen: Georgia only had one bump in the home road losing to South Carolina early in the year, but this is a far different team now. Head coach Mark Richt might not have any more motivational ploys in his bag, but he won't need one this week as the running game controls the game from the start.
CFN Prediction: Georgia 45 ... Kentucky 31 ... Line: Georgia -7
Must See Rating: (5
On HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State: The Rivalry"  - 1 Writer strike induced reruns) ... 3.5

SEC Saturday, November 17th

Florida Atlantic (5-4) at Florida (7-3)  12:00 PM GamePlan
Why to watch
: Florida has done all it can do for it's SEC campaign, finishing up last week with a dominant win over South Carolina to finish the year 5-3. Now it has to sit back, watch, and hope for Georgia and Tennessee to screw up, but in the meantime, there's an interesting non-conference game against Florida Atlantic to deal with before facing Florida State. The Owls have been living on the edge in the race or the Sun Belt title with only one loss to UL Monroe, coming in three overtimes, and with date next week against FIU before the showdown with Troy to finish up the year. The two teams have never played.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: FAU has an interesting mix of positives that should be able to put a few points on the board. The offensive line is rock-solid in pass protection, giving up just ten on the year, while Rusty Smith is growing into a top passer. The Gator secondary has been suspect all season long, and while it has allowed just one touchdown pass and picked off three throws in the last two games, it should give up 300 yards to Smith, even if they come in comeback mode.
Why Florida might win: If you're going to have a shot at beating Florida, you  have to stop Tim Tebow and the running game. FAU's run defense started out the year fine, and kept Arkansas State in check last week, but it gave up three touchdowns to the Indians and has allowed 13 rushing scores in the last four games. South Florida ran for 302 yards, UL Lafayette ran for 317 yards, and Tebow, yet another running quarterback for the Owl D to deal with, should lead the Gator attack to similar success.
Who to watch: The Gator offense is all about Tebow, and Percy Harvin has a few moments of glory every game, but the offense has taken on a new dimension of explosiveness with the return of Andre Caldwell after he was banged up earlier in the year. He hit his stride over the last two weeks with 20 catches for 251 yards and three touchdowns, with 11 of the grabs coming last week against South Carolina. Now, defenses have to commit a safety to helping out on No. 5 all the time, which leaves open that much more room for Tebow to move.
What will happen: Even in letdown mode, Florida should be able to rumble at will on the Owl defense. FAU won't make any big mistakes, but the defense won't be able to come up with enough big plays to avoid a blowout.
CFN Prediction: Florida 45 ... Florida Atlantic 17 ... Line: Florida -33
Must See Rating: (5
On HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State: The Rivalry"  - 1 Writer strike induced reruns) ... 1.5

(5-5) at Tennessee (7-3)  2:00 PM GamePlan
Why to watch
: All eyes are on Tennessee, who keep meeting challenge after challenge to stay in the lead in the SEC East race. If the Vols beat Vandy this week and Kentucky next week, they'll play LSU for the SEC title game thanks to a 35-14 win over Georgia earlier in the year. The Commodores need a win either this week or against Wake Forest in the regular season finale to be the 11th SEC team to be bowl eligible. They won the last time they were in Knoxville, taking advantage of a down Tennessee team in 2005, but this will be a far tougher challenge as the Vols are playing their final home game of the year, and the last game in a four-game homestand.
Why Vanderbilt might win: The Vandy passing game hasn't exactly blown up so far, but the receiving corps is solid enough to put up some big yards against a suspect secondary. Tennessee hasn't faced too many teams that can throw and didn't have much success against offenses like South Carolina's and Alabama's. Vandy QB Mackenzi Adams is coming off one of his best games of the year. The Commodores have been good at generating pressure all year long, and did a decent job hitting Kentucky's Andre Woodson last week, registering three sacks to go along with eight tackles for loss. However ...
Why Tennessee might win: ... no one's getting a hand on Erik Ainge. The Tennessee offensive line has allowed just three sacks all season long, and if Ainge gets a little bit of time, he won't make mistakes. He's leading a Vol offense that's been impressive at home averaging 40.3 points per game and has shown enough explosion to put a game like this away in the first half. Meanwhile, the defense has stepped up its play over the last two weeks allowing just seven points to UL Lafayette and 13 to Arkansas. If the D could shut down Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, it can handle the anemic Commodore attack.
Who to watch: Ainge won't win All-SEC honors in a league with Tim Tebow, but he has quietly come up with a strong season even though he doesn't have the same weapons he enjoyed last year. He's letting the running game do most of the work lately, but he's coming through when he needs to with at least one touchdown pass in each of the last five games and with no more than one pick thrown in any game so far. He doesn't have to be perfect to beat Vandy, and the game will be a blowout if he doesn't turn the ball over and make any big mistakes.
What will happen: Tennessee needs this game, and will play like it. The Commodore defense will keep it close early on, but the offense won't have enough pop to mount any sort of a comeback.
CFN Prediction: Tennessee 31 ... Vanderbilt 17 ... Line: Tennessee -12
Must See Rating: (5
On HBO, "Michigan vs. Ohio State: The Rivalry"  - 1 Writer strike induced reruns) ... 2

SEC Fearless Predictions, Week 12, Part 2



Related Stories
SEC Fearless Predictions, Nov. 24
 -by  Nov 21, 2007
2007 SEC Championship Fearless Prediction
 -by  Nov 28, 2007
SEC Fearless Predictions, Nov. 10
 -by  Nov 6, 2007