Scout.com: Sun Belt Fearless Predictions, Sept. 1

Sun Belt Fearless Predictions, Sept. 1

By Pete Fiutak

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Jun 14, 2007

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Previews and Predictions for the Week 1 Sun Belt Games.

Sun Belt Fearless Predictions Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1

Sun Belt Game of the Week

Middle Tennessee at Florida Atlantic 4:00 PM
Why to watch: The Sun Belt should be even from top to bottom, with even the slightest slip, even in an opening day game like this one, is huge. Middle Tennessee was the Sun Belt's best team last year, but it collapsed late against Troy and still hasn't fulfilled the championship promise when it first joined the league. This is a strong Sun Belt team with the talent to win the whole thing, but Florida Atlantic is also strong. The Owl offense might not be anything special, but the defense should be among the best in the league. Considering how good the Blue Raiders are supposed to be, a win would generate a ton of momentum before a tough first half of the season kicks in.
Why Middle Tennessee might win: This isn't going to be an explosive FAU offense, and it's going to have major problems against talented defensive lines. Middle Tennessee's line has a few players who'll be in NFL camps next year, and should be one of the Sun Belt's most dominant units. FAU, by design, has a mix of very quick, very undersized players up front along with a few normal behemoths. The front five will struggle, and the offense will have a hard time moving the ball.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: The Middle Tennessee defensive back seven is fine, but nothing special, while the offense won't put up points in bunches. On the flip side, the FAU back seven will be excellent with a safety tandem in Kris Bartels and Taheem Acevedo that'll be strong enough keep the Blue Raiders from getting its average passing game going. If MT isn't running well, it's offense won't go anywhere.
Who to watch: It's Joe Craddock's show to run for Middle Tennessee, and for the offense to finally do more to crank out yards, he needs to be consistent. He struggled in his limited time last year, but he has the arm and the mobility to be the type of quarterback who can carry the team through stretches. On the other side, FAU's Rusty Smith is the unquestioned starter after spending last year entrenched in a quarterback shuffle. He's a pro-style passer who has to use his new status to make everyone around him better.
What will happen: Expect a defensive struggle with the team that makes the fewest mistakes getting the win. Both teams will come up with big defensive stops, but the Blue Raider defensive line will come up with a few more big play to pull out a grinder.
CFN Prediction: Middle Tennessee 17 ... Florida Atlantic 14 ... Line: Florida Atlantic -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 2.5
Final Score:

Sun Belt Thursday, August 30

Tulsa at UL Monroe 7:00 PM
Why to watch: Although no one outside these two regions will pay much attention to this game, it figures to be a surprisingly good showcase of offensive talent. Tulsa gets back quarterback Paul Smith, Conference USA’s most accomplished quarterback, to run coordinator Gus Malzahn’s fancy hurry-up, no-huddle attack. Can the system work at this level? We never found out in Malzahn’s one turbulent season at Arkansas, but he’ll be rolling it out without limitations beginning Thursday night. The Hurricane also has a quality back in Tarrion Adams, but the offense must rebuild and re-educate the offensive line and receiving corps in a hurry. Louisiana-Monroe has momentum from a very strong November, and 11 starters back from the Sun Belt’s most potent offense. Calvin Dawson is a 1,200-yard rusher, and Zeek Zacharie and LaGregory Sapp are quality targets, meaning the Warhawks will be downright dynamic if versatile QB Kinsmon Lancaster builds on a shaky sophomore season.
Why Tulsa might win: The Hurricane has a mature and talented front seven that can slow down Dawson, forcing Lancaster to have to do too much. Terrel Nemons is a 345-pound beast at the nose, while Nelson Coleman is one of the most underrated middle linebackers in the nation. When Tulsa has the ball, it’ll get little resistance from a Warhawk defense that’s especially weak in the front seven. The balance of Smith’s passes and Adams’ versatility will be a very tall order for a unit that’s painfully short on quality stoppers.
Why UL Monroe might win: In a game that could become a track meet, ULM has the offensive artillery to keep pace with Tulsa. Even if Dawson is held in check, Lancaster will get enough protection to make plays with his legs and put a dent in a Tulsa secondary that’s thin at corner after Roy Roberts. The Warhawks played Kansas and Kentucky to two-point losses in 2006, and know they can go stride-for-stride with this Tulsa team.
Who to watch: For the new passer-friendly offense to work in Tulsa, developing more receivers is a must, especially after last year’s top three pass-catchers graduated. Since spring, junior college transfer Dion Toliver has played as if he’ll fill one of the voids, grabbing everything within reach and picking up plenty of yards after the catch.
What will happen: Tulsa had better bring its “A” game to Monroe because the Warhawks are primed for an upset and a catapult victory for Charlie Weatherbie. In a rerun of 2006, ULM will lose a close game, failing to stop the late-game precision passes of Smith.
CFN Prediction: Tulsa 34 ... UL Monroe 27 ... Line: Tulsa -5
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 2
Final Score:

Sun Belt Saturday, September 1

Florida International at Penn State 12 pm EST Big Ten Network
Why to Watch: It's hard to find a bigger disparity in coaching age and experience than the matchup in Happy Valley. On one side is Joe Paterno., the legend who's going into his 42nd year as the Penn State head man. On the other is Mario Cristobal, the 36-year-old tireless recruiter who's trying to make FIU into another Miami. The Golden Panthers appeared to be all set for a big 2006, but it couldn't come up with a close win, got into a fight with Miami, and lost most of its team on the way to a winless season. Now Cristobal is looking to make a big splash right off the bat with a decent showing. The Nittany Lions have Notre Dame next week and need to use this game to tune up.
Why FIU Might Win: Defense, defense, defense. The offense didn't do anything last year, and will need a while before it's even remotely average, but the defense has enough experience and enough athleticism to be tough from the opening snap. The secondary isn't better than Penn State's but corner Lionell Singleton might be the best defensive back in the game, while there's good enough size on the interior to gum things up against the run. This is a better defense than last year's group that didn't give up more than 38 points in any game (Alabama), and that came the week after the suspensions from the Miami game. Unfortunately for the Golden Panthers ...
Why Penn State Might Win: ... you can't win if you don't score. Last year's FIU attack finished dead last in the nation in scoring and 116th in yards. Eight starters might be back, but it's going to take a while before there's any production. The strength is in the running game, and Penn State's linebackers will put a stop to that from the start. There won't be any passing game whatsoever for the Nittany Lion defensive backs to worry about.
Who to Watch: O.K. Austin Scott, here's your last shot. The superstar Penn State running back recruit has had a star crossed career due to injuries and ineffectiveness, but it's his show now and it's his final chance to carry the workload. While he's not going to be Larry Johnson, a one-time disappointing prospect who went ballistic in his senior season, he should be just good enough to take the pressure off Anthony Morelli and the passing attack. If he struggles in the opener, watch for the panic alarms to go off among the Nittany Lion faithful.
What Will Happen: FIU will be flying all over the field defensively, and will come up with a few big moments to make the 100,000+ in the stands to grumble, but eventually, Morelli will come up with a few big pass plays and the running game will get good enough field position to always be in scoring range.
CFN Prediction: Penn State 34 ... Florida International 6 ... Line: Penn State -38
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 2
Final Score:

Western Kentucky at Florida 6:00 PM
Why to Watch: The defending national champions in every sport that matters will get two much-needed tune-ups (playing Troy next week) before the big game against Tennessee, and with so many new faces in key places, there isn't time for taking it easy on a sacrificial lamb like Western Kentucky. This is a provisional year for the Hilltoppers as it makes its way into the D-I world in the near future. For now, the goal is to not get embarrassed before the end of the first quarter, take the paycheck, and move on to West Virginia Tech.
Why Western Kentucky Might Win: WKU has an experienced defensive front seven that might be able to keep the Gators from scoring for a drive or two. The offense is undergoing a personnel overhaul, while the secondary returns three starters from D-IAA's (or the FCS's) 16th ranked pass defense. Florida head coach Urban Meyer isn't big on running up the score and won't likely let this be uglier than it needs to be.
Why Florida Might Win: Yeah, the WKU defensive front is full of veterans, but they're not very big, and they're not very good. The Gator offensive line should be rock solid, and could grow into the team's biggest strength. Expect it to shove around the Hilltoppers like they're Ohio State. While the Gator offense doesn't have to get quirky, anything outside of the box (like a reverse) will work. Most top 25 teams can't run with Florida, much less WKU.
Who to Watch: Tim Tebow. While he's supposed to be fantastic against a team like WKU, the pressure is now on for him to be the guy who keeps the momentum going. Chris Leak wasn't always beloved until he won a national title, and by winning a championship, he goes from being the face of the Ron Zook era to a Florida legend. Tebow has a lot to live up to, and every mistake will be scrutinized from the start. There are certainly bigger fish to fry down the road, but he needs to make an early statement.
What Will Happen: Florida will be Florida. It can bring its C game and still win by 30.
CFN Prediction: Florida 41 ... Western Kentucky 7 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 1
Final Score:

Sun Belt Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2