Sun Belt Fearless Predictions, Sept. 8

Previews and Predictions for the Week 2 Sun Belt Games.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State | Florida Atlantic | Florida International | MTSU
North Texas | Troy | UL Lafayette | UL Monroe

Sun Belt Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 6-1 ... ATS: 5-2

Sun Belt Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2

Sun Belt Game of the Week

Memphis (0-1) at Arkansas State (0-1) 7:00 EST
Why to watch: Arkansas State nearly became the second “ASU” of the opening weekend to engineer a cataclysmic upset of a top-shelf program, losing to Texas 21-13 in Austin.  Are the Longhorns overrated or are the Indians being overlooked out of the Sun Belt Conference?  It’s worth monitoring Arkansas State over the next few weeks to help answer that question.  The Indians actually out gained the nation’s No. 4 team, 397-340, with a good mix of Corey Leonard’s passing and the running of Reggie Arnold.  Memphis began its 2007 season with a disappointing, error-prone loss at Ole Miss.  The Tigers showed determination by pulling within two points in the final minute, but fell short when Martin Hankins’ pass for a two-point conversion went incomplete.  Hankins is a Memphis enigma, who’ll throw for a ton yards, yet always seems to connect with the opposition a couple times a game.  Last year’s game between these two schools was decided on a 47-yard desperation heave from Leonard that gave a Arkansas State a memorable win.  
Why Memphis might win: Arkansas State gained a lot of yards last week, but sputtered when it reached the red zone, a recurring theme from last season.  The Indians will again struggle to finish drives against an improving Memphis defense that kept BenJarvus Green-Ellis in check, and only allowed two offensive touchdowns to the Rebels.
Why Arkansas State might win: The Tigers’ strength, their passing game, will be neutralized by an Indian secondary that boasts five returning fifth-year seniors, including Tyrell Johnson, one of the Sun Belt’s best defensive players.  Arkansas State will contain Duke Calhoun and the Memphis receivers, while capitalizing on a couple of Hankins’ errant throws.  This is the same secondary that made Colt McCoy look ordinary less than seven days ago.   
Who to watch: With steady Joseph Doss on the shelf for the next couple of weeks, it’ll be up to unproven sophomores T.J. Pitts and Miguel Barnes to spark an anemic Memphis running game.  The Tigers need some hint of a running game this week in order to prevent Arkansas State from sitting back and concentrating solely on the pass.   
What will happen: While it won’t be as dramatic as last October, Arkansas State will build on last week’s close call at Texas, and grind out a momentum-building win over Memphis. 
CFN Prediction: Arkansas State 24 ... Memphis 22 ... Line:  Memphis -3
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2
Final Score:

Sun Belt Thursday, September 8

Middle Tennessee (0-1) at Louisville (1-0) 7:00 PM ESPN2
Why to watch: Okay, so the opponent was I-AA Murray State, but the Louisville offense, now being run by Steve Kragthorpe, looked every bit as combustible as when Bobby Petrino was in town.  Behind the passing of Heisman contender Brian Brohm and the big-play receiving of Harry Douglas, the Cards racked up 73 points and 655 yards of total offense.  With a key showdown against Kentucky looming a week from Saturday, Middle Tennessee State represents a necessary step up in competition, especially for a rebuilt defense that never got tested last Thursday night.  One year after raising expectations with a program-first bowl invite, the Blue Raiders opened the 2007 season by getting unceremoniously dumped by Florida Atlantic.  Middle Tennessee was sloppy in all facets of its opener, which needs to be addressed in a hurry if it’s going to keep Louisville from going over par for a second straight week.
Why Middle Tennessee might win: The Blue Raiders are not going to slow down the Louisville offense, even with a great defensive line that should crank out a little bit of pressure on Brohm, but they do have some pieces on offense to challenge a Cardinal D in transition.  QB Joe Craddock has experience in this system, and is surrounded by a bunch of seasoned vets in the receiving corps.  The Louisville secondary is still very much a work-in-progress that’s breaking in three new starters.
Why Louisville might win: Unless Middle Tennessee can find a way to ring up 50 points, it has no chance in this game.  There just isn’t enough overall MT firepower to put up the yards and scores needed to keep up the pace Louisville will set. The Cardinal offense is a sensational blend of speed, power, and unpredictability.  Much like last week, it’ll move up and down the field at will, never punting and affording third and fourth stringers a chance to get live game action.
Who to watch: Under Kragthorpe, Louisville plans to use the tight ends a little more, and has a couple of good ones in seniors Gary Barnidge and Scott Kuhn.  With so much attention being given to Douglas and Mario Urrutia on the outside, the 6-6, 235-pound Barnidge will be a season-long mismatch for opposing linebackers and safeties. He’s quickly becoming an interesting NFL prospect who should use this game to break out. 
What will happen: Louisville has one more opportunity to work out the kinks on both sides of the ball before traveling to Lexington next week to face a jacked up Kentucky.  The Cards will toy around for two quarters of fireworks and offensive domination before emptying the benches and getting the starters out of pads.   
CFN Prediction: Louisville 59 ... Middle Tennessee 10 ... Line:  Louisville -39
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 1.5
Final Score:   

Sun Belt Saturday, September 8

UL Monroe (0-1) at Clemson (1-0) 1:00 PM GamePlan
Why to Watch: If you liked what you saw in the first half of Clemson’s 24-18 win over Florida State in the Bowden Bowl, then you should be tickled Saturday. The Tigers may suffer a bit of a letdown, and if UL Monroe plays like it did last year in the oh-so-close 42-40 loss to Kentucky, and catches a big break or five, this could be closer than expected. The Tiger speed is something to behold, and the blitzing defense can be hellish, provided there is some discipline among its members, but ULM can run, too.
Why UL Monroe Might Win: The Warhawks ran the ball well last week against Tulsa, and in tailback Calvin Dawson (150 yards vs. the Golden Hurricane), they have a proven ballcarrier with more than 2,000 career yards and nine 100-yard games. The Warhawks also held a 17-14 halftime lead against Tulsa, so they have the potential to scare a better opponent, provided they can sustain the success and get the running game going. If this gets close, ULM has a weapon in kicker Cole Wilson, who has made 12 straight field goals.
Why Clemson Might Win: If the team that held FSU to a mere 62 total yards in the first half shows up, en route to a 24-3 halftime lead, there is no “might” here. Clemson will win by 50. But the Tigers have to be focused and can’t let down. The blitzing Tiger D that forced the ‘Noles into eight first-half punts and an 0-for-9 success rate on third down, and which registered five sacks, should be stout enough to shut down Dawson. ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster threw for just 66 yards against Tulsa and isn’t likely to turn it up a notch against the speedy Tiger secondary.
Who to Watch: Clemson QB Cullen Harper had a solid debut and certainly silenced the people who were clamoring for an early unveiling of true freshman Willy Korn. Harper completed 14-of-24 passes for 160 yards and two touchdowns. He didn’t make too many bad decisions and was in charge of the offense. He even overcame some adversity when guards Thomas Austin and Brandon Pilgrim had to leave the game with injuries. While he isn’t going to wow too many people, that’s not his job. As long as he doesn’t turn it over and lets the star running backs James Davis and C.J. Spiller do their jobs, the Tigers will roll.
What Will Happen: The Warhawks may be able to stick around for a while, because Clemson is coming off an emotional game and a short week, but there’s a big difference between scaring Tulsa for a half in front of 22,000 in Monroe and hanging with the Tigers before 83,000 in Death Valley.  
CFN Prediction: Clemson 45 ... UL Monroe 10 ... Line:  Clemson -23
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2
Final Score:   

Troy (0-1) at Florida (1-0)  6:00 PM GamePlan 
Why to Watch: The defending national champions did what they were supposed to do in the opener against Western Kentucky, winning 49-3, and now there's a slight upgrade before the showdown with Tennessee. Troy has just enough of a defense, and a good, veteran quarterback in Omar Haugabook, that it could provide a few problems if Florida is already mentally gameplanning for the Volunteers, but it didn't show much in the 46-26 opening day loss to Arkansas. The defending Sun Belt champions aren't just going to roll over and give up when they see the Gator uniforms and could make this a ball game for a little while.
Why Troy Might Win: While the Trojans didn't necessarily look like world-beaters against Arkansas, they have a talented defensive line and a great secondary that'll provide a bit of a push. Florida might be ultra-talented and with superior athleticism, but this is still a very, very young team that's due to start making some rookie mistakes on both sides of the ball. Even with the blowout win over WKU, Florida's defense had several missed tackles and didn't play as well as Urban Meyer would've liked.
Why Florida Might Win: The speed of the Florida defense should be too much for the Trojans. Haugabook had a great game against Florida State last year, but he struggled with his consistency and threw too many interceptions. Against Arkansas, he only completed 15 of 43 passes for 204 yards and a touchdown, along with an interception. The Gator pass rush should have him on the move all game long, while there likely won't be any semblance of a running game if the UF front seven is focused.
Who to Watch: In search of a consistent running game for a few years, Florida might have finally found its back to work around in junior Kestahn Moore. While not a superior talent, at least compared to other, less experienced options, he's a plugger who ran for 91 yards and two touchdowns against WKU and will likely get the boatload of the carries. The less running Tim Tebow has to do early on, the better. 
What Will Happen: This will be the type of game that Florida wins in a walk, but does just enough things wrong to get the coaching staff yelling. Haugabook will complete fewer than half his passes and will toss three picks that'll make a close game a blowout.
CFN Prediction: Florida 38 ... Troy 14 ... Line:  Florida -27.5
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2
Final Score:   

Sun Belt Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 2