Sun Belt Fearless Predictions, Sept. 15

Previews and Predictions for the Week 3 Sun Belt Games.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State | Florida Atlantic | Florida International | MTSU
North Texas | Troy | UL Lafayette | UL Monroe

Sun Belt Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 12-2 ... ATS: 7-6-1

Sun Belt Week Three Fearless Predictions, Part 2

Sun Belt Game of the Week

SMU (1-1) at Arkansas State (0-1)  7:00 PM
Why to watch: Arkansas State’s anticipated follow-up to almost knocking off Texas in the opener never happened last weekend.  The Indians game with Memphis was postponed due to severe weather, and was rescheduled for Sept. 27.  Two weeks ago, they lost to the Longhorns 21-13, out gaining the 40-point favorites by almost 50 yards.  Was Arkansas State overlooked or laying the groundwork for a Sun Belt Conference title run?  Saturday’s visit from SMU will begin to answer that question.  The Mustangs righted their ship last Saturday, beating North Texas five days after being trounced by Texas Tech in front of the home crowd.  With a road game at TCU next week, they’re staring at a 1-3 start if they don’t get out of Jonesboro with a victory.
Why SMU might win: After starting slowly, Justin Willis and the SMU offense began finding its groove last Saturday night.  Willis threw for a career-high 353 yards and two touchdowns on 30-of-42 passing, spreading the ball around and making plays when the pocket broke down.  He’ll get help from DeMyron Martin, a big back that’ll soften the weakest area of the Arkansas State defense, the front seven.
Why Arkansas State might win: Okay, it doesn’t help to open with Texas Tech and North Texas, but the SMU pass defense has been downright hideous, allowing over 1,000 yards and seven touchdown passes in just two games.  That’s good news for Indian QB Corey Leonard, who was sharp in and out of the pocket two weeks ago against a far better Texas defense.  Arkansas State will also move the ball on the ground as well with Reggie Arnold facing off with a Mustang defense that’s totally rebuilt up front.
Who to watch: When SMU receivers run patterns Saturday night, they better know where S Tyrell Johnson is at all times.  The Sun Belt’s pre-season Defensive Player of the Year is a force out of the secondary with the cover skills of a cornerback.  Against Texas, he led the way on defense with 14 tackles and an interception.
What will happen: In games against common opponents, sort of, SMU got housed by Texas Tech, and Arkansas State went toe-to-toe with Texas.  The Indians will be up for another challenge, using a balanced offense and a veteran secondary to hold off the Mustangs in a tight game.
CFN Prediction: Arkansas State 30 … SMU 26 ... Line: Arkansas State -3
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2

Sun Belt Friday, Sept. 14

Oklahoma State (1-1) at Troy (0-2)  8:00 pm ESPN2
Why to Watch: The last time a team from the Big 12 traveled to Troy to play an apparent nationally televised blowout game, Missouri was stunned in a 24-14 loss. While that was 2004, this is still a decent Trojan team that should be in the thick of the Sun Belt title hunt again. It hasn't been a smooth start, going 0-2 against Arkansas and Florida, but the offense hasn't been bad and the overall team appears to be in place to give the Cowboys a run. OSU is on the second leg of a Sun Belt tour after blasting Florida Atlantic 42-6. With one of the nation's most exciting offenses, OSU should put on a good show if it's not looking ahead to the Big 12 opener at Texas Tech.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: Troy hasn't even been remotely close to stopping the run so far. The OSU ground game hasn't taken off and been the explosive juggernaut it's expected to become, but that's because it had good offensive balance against FAU and had to throw it to try to get back in the Georgia game. For Troy to win this game, it has to keep the chains moving and be effective on third downs. That could be a problem considering QB Omar Haugabook has only completed 46% of his passes. Fortunately for the Trojans ...
Why Troy Might Win: ... the Cowboy secondary has been mediocre. Georgia was able to throw on OSU without a problem, mainly because the defensive line didn't generate enough pressure. On the other side of the ball, the OSU O line has struggled in pass protection and hasn't done enough for the running game. Basically, all the parts haven't started to click yet, so if Troy plays a sharp, mistake-free game, it should have a chance to take this deep into the second half.
Who to Watch: Part of OSU's problem (and it's all relative considering the Cowboys just blew out FAU) has been injuries. Top RB Dantrell Savage has a bad groin injury, and good backup Julius Crosslin has a sprained knee, meaning sophomore Keith Toston has to carry the workload when he's been used to splitting time. The bigger question mark is at quarterback, where Bobby Reid has had knee and ankle problems. The injuries have opened the door for sophomore Zac Robinson, who completed 14 of 20 passes for 250 yards and three touchdowns, with an interception, against FAU. Both will likely see time.
What Will Happen: Troy will catch OSU napping for about a half, and then the Cowboy passing game will take over. The Trojans won't have the firepower to keep up in the end, but they'll make this a fun game to watch.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma State 31 ... Troy 20 ... Line: Oklahoma State -10
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2

Sun Belt Saturday, Sept. 15

Minnesota (1-1) at Florida Atlantic (1-1)  1:00 PM
Why to Watch: With the way Minnesota played in its first two weeks, going into overtime against both Bowling Green and Miami University, it can't take anyone lightly. Now Tim Brewster's team has to go on the road to face a spunky Florida Atlantic squad with a good defense and enough fight to make this a tougher-than-expected battle. The Owls all but shut down the same Middle Tennessee that blew up against Louisville with a Sun Belt-statement making 27-14 opening day win, but had to deal with a fired up Oklahoma State team last week in a 42-6 loss. If Minnesota has any dreams of doing anything in Big Ten play, or to go to a bowl, it has to win this game impressively and start to establish something positive before facing Purdue.
Why Minnesota Might Win: The Gopher defense desperately needs a break, and it'll get it this week. FAU doesn't have enough in the bag to put up big numbers against anyone, and while the defense should be fine, at times, it'll struggle against quick teams with good offensive balance. Minnesota's problems haven't been on offense, where the running game has averaged 276 yards per game and the passing game has been efficient enough to win with. A quick early lead should be enough to get the job done.
Why Florida Atlantic Might Win: If FAU can somehow keep this close into the fourth quarter, the elements might take over. Brewster has tried to simulate the humidity of south Florida by making the Minnesota indoor practice facility hot, but it's not the same as actually fighting through the sticky weather against a live opponent. For FAU to win, Minnesota needs to screw up a lot. Considering how turnovers, penalties, and strange defensive lapses have been an issue over the first two games, the Owls will probably get plenty of chances to make some big things happen.
Who to Watch: Call the last few weeks a step back, at times, to eventually take a giant leap forward for redshirt freshman QB Adam Weber. Brewster's offense has been effective so far, but Weber hasn't been sharp for a full sixty minutes yet. He runs well, came up with four touchdown passes against Miami, and has come up with a few clutch drives. Now he needs to be consistent, more accurate, and do even more to keep defenses from focusing solely on RB Amir Pinnix.
What Will Happen: For about a half, Florida Atlantic will believe it has a shot to pull off a huge upset and put a big feather in the Sun Belt's cap. Then the Minnesota offensive line will take over, and the Owls won't be able to come up with the second half drives needed to keep pace.
CFN Prediction: Minnesota 34 ... Florida Atlantic 17 ... Line: Minnesota -9.5
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 1.5
 

Florida International (0-2) at Miami (1-1)  3:30 PM ESPNU
Why to Watch: On the surface, this is as ugly as it gets, but it’s an important chance for the ‘Canes to get things straight after a clubbing by Oklahoma last Saturday. But then you remember last year’s matchup, and the reason to watch comes into sharp focus. The ’06 edition of this rivalry featured the infamous brawl that led to 31 suspensions by the teams and became the beginning of the end for both coaching staffs. There won’t be the bad blood this time around with new head coaches Mario Cristobal at FIU and Miami’s Randy Shannon handling things far differently. Even so, this will still be a hard fought game with FIU looking to make a big statement in some way, as Cristobal tries to make his program like the one down the road.
Why Florida International Might Win: The Golden Panthers weren’t too pleased to see that Miami was whipped in Norman last week, since the Hurricanes are liable to be focused and mad. Still, Miami is an imperfect team with a shaky passing attack that manages just 84 yards a game. Kyle Wright gets the start this week, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be any better than Kirby Freeman, who was inept. FIU had better get its offense going, particularly on the ground, since it has rushed for just 79 yards in its two losses. A better rushing attack will help QB Wayne Younger be a little more accurate (42.6%) against the tough Miami defense.
Why Miami Might Win: Wright may be inaccurate and inconsistent, but he’ll have plenty of opportunity to look good against the leaky FIU defense. Wright came on in relief last week and led Miami to its only TD. Even if implodes, the ground game should be sufficient to dominate the Panthers. Graig Cooper (142 yards) and Javarris James (127 yards, 2 TDs) have been excellent so far and could each get over 100 yards Saturday. The Hurricane defense is still reeling from last week, but it continues to produce turnovers (plus-4 margin) and should be able to add to that total Saturday.
Who to Watch: There are plenty of times when a son plays for his father in college but precious few when fathers and sons are opponents. That’s what happens Saturday, when Shannon squares off against his son, Xavier, FIU’s starting center. The Miami head man has said that he and his son will be enemies during the game, and family after it. The third-year starting junior (he was a regular for five games as a frosh) is 6-1, 288 and a solid middle man for the Panthers.
What Will Happen: Expect relative peace between the teams, but on the scoreboard, the Hurricanes will romp.
CFN Prediction: Miami 40 … FIU 6 ... Line: Miami -33 
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 1.5

Sun Belt Week Three Fearless Predictions, Part 2