Sun Belt Fearless Predictions, Sept. 22

Previews and Predictions for the Week 4 Sun Belt Games.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State | Florida Atlantic | Florida International | MTSU
North Texas | Troy | UL Lafayette | UL Monroe

Sun Belt Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 16-5 ... ATS: 8-11-1

Sun Belt Game of the Week

Florida Atlantic (2-1) at North Texas (0-2)
Why to Watch: Is it possible for two teams to crank out 1,000 yards of passing offense? After years of no Sun Belt passing production whatsoever, there are suddenly some high-octane options to make things extremely interesting. When last we saw North Texas, it was losing to SMU, but put up 601 yards and three touchdowns in the process. Last week, Florida Atlantic blew past Minnesota with Rusty Smith throwing for 463 yards and five touchdowns. Having already beaten Middle Tennessee, the Owls can be 2-0 in Sun Belt play and establish itself as one of the true favorites to go to the New Orleans Bowl. If nothing else, this will be very, very entertaining.
Why Florida Atlantic Might Win: Oh sure, the North Texas offense has suddenly found something it can build around with the passing game, the defense has been horrific. Getting the doors blown off by Oklahoma is one thing, but giving up 534 yards and 45 points to SMU is another. The Owls should be able to move the ball however it wants to, and Smith should be able to pick the number of passing yards he wants to put on the board. UNT generates no pressure to throw him off. FAU, currently second in the nation in turnover margin, helped by 13 takeaways will also win the turnover battle. The UNT defense doesn't force mistakes.
Why North Texas Might Win: It's not like the Florida Atlantic secondary is stopping anyone. Minnesota roared back to make last week interesting with 355 passing yards. Oklahoma State achieved a near-perfect offensive balance against the Owls, and came up with several big pass plays. The FAU secondary isn't getting any help from the pass rush, and as the games wear on, they're making more mistakes. North Texas might be more effective bombing away in the second half.
Who to Watch: Someone had to catch Daniel Meager's 601 passing yards against SMU. Senior Brandon Jackson finished second on the team last year with 17 catches for 188 yards and a touchdown. So far this year, he caught 17 passes for 217 yards and a score, but he's the number two target right now behind junior walk-on Casey Fitzgerald, who's taken the season by storm. He made seven grabs for 126 yards and a score against Oklahoma, and then tore up SMU for 18 catches for 327 yards and two scores.
What Will Happen: This will be fun. The rest Mean Green will put up a ton of yards with plenty of big plays, but the FAU defense will come up with just enough key stops, and the passing game will do just enough to keep up the pace.
CFN Prediction: Florida Atlantic 41 ... North Texas 31 ... Line: Kansas -30.5
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 1.5

Sun Belt Thursday, Sept. 20

Western Kentucky (2-1) at Middle Tennessee (0-3)  7:00 PM ESPN+
Why to Watch: Middle Tennessee might be 0-3, but it's an interesting 0-3. For all the fireworks against Louisville, and all the good battle in the opener against Florida Atlantic, and the bowl bid last year, followed up by the close call against Troy, this doesn't seem like a team on a six-game losing streak. There can't be any slipups, and Western Kentucky, a provisional D-I team that'll be a full-fledged Sun Belt team, and eligible for a bowl, in 2009. the Hilltoppers have won two in a row, highlighted by an 87-0 blanking of West Virginia Tech. The defense has been decent enough so far to pull off the win if Middle Tennessee isn't on.
Why Western Kentucky Might Win: The run defense has been excellent. Florida threw at will on the WKU secondary, but that's Florida. West Virginia Tech was held to -27 net yards on the ground, and EKU only got 132. This is a smallish defensive front that's extremely quick and very active. The Blue Raiders, outside of some big runs against Louisville, have been inconsistent on the ground.
Why Middle Tennessee Might Win: Middle Tennessee finally gets a home game after three tough outings on the road. After dealing with LSU, WKU will look like its going in half speed, and the Blue Raider passing game will take advantage with an efficient performance from Joe Craddock. WKU has faced one quarterback who can throw, Tim Tebow, and had problems. Craddock isn't Tebow, but he should be able to dink and dunk all he wants.
Who to Watch: Can Curtis Hamilton do that again? A middle of the road WMU receiver, Hamilton blew up for 12 catches for 139 yards against Eastern Kentucky, and now might become the number one receiver for a passing game that spreads it around. The Hilltoppers have played in three blowout games, giving redshirt freshman QB K.J. Black time to step in produce. Both he and starter David Wolke are mobile, and both could play.
What Will Happen: Western Kentucky will get a little bit of national attention on a Thursday night, and its running game will put the Blue Raiders all game long. The defense won't be able to handle the Blue Raider offensive balance and will give up two long touchdown drives in the fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction: Middle Tennessee 34 ... Western Kentucky 20 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 1.5

Sun Belt Saturday, Sept. 22

Arkansas State (1-1) at Tennessee (1-2)  7:00 PM GamePlan
Why to Watch: Arkansas State is 0-18 against BCS conference teams since 2000, but this might be the best Indian team in several years, while Tennessee is teetering on the brink of total mediocrity after getting blown out by California and Florida, and beating Southern Miss, in a 1-2 start. The Vols haven't started 1-3 since 1994, but if they're licking their wounds after the 59-20 loss to the Gators, and looking ahead to the huge game against Georgia in two weeks, this could be interesting. Texas might not be Texas at the moment, but ASU still deserves credit for making it a game in Austin, losing 21-13, and then beat SMU last week. Now we'll get to see what kind of team Tennessee is. If it's playing up to its capabilities, it wins this game in a walk. If it struggles, or heaven forbid, loses, the calls for Phil Fulmer's head will only get louder.
Why Arkansas State Might Win: This hasn't been the typical Tennessee defense lately. It stuffed Southern Miss for 90 rushing yards, but Florida ran for 255 yards and four touchdowns, and Cal tore off 230 yards and two scores. RB Reggie Arnold is coming off a 156-yard day against SMU, but the real problem for the Vols will be QB Corey Leonard. A strong dual threat quarterback who threw for 259 against Texas and 266 against SMU, he should roll for at least 250 against the struggling Vol secondary, and he'll keep everyone on their heels when he takes off.
Why Tennessee Might Win: The ASU lines are way overmatched. The offensive line struggles in pass protection, partially do to Corey Leonard's running, while the defensive front doesn't do much to get into the backfield. Considering the Vols have allowed just two sacks so far Erik Ainge should have ten days to throw. Despite allowing two punt returns for touchdowns, the Vols have a huge special teams edge and should come up with a few big returns.
Who to Watch: ASU has gotten some good play out of its receiving corps, but it needs Arnold and Leonard to run well to have any shot of pulling off the upset. Now is the time for the Tennessee linebacking corps to shine, after having a rough time doing much of anything against Florida. Jerod Mayo is a top talent who needs to start generating more big plays and make more stops against the run. Rico McCoy has been steady, but unspectacular, as has Ryan Karl. It's not a stretch to suggest that the improved play of this trio is the key to whether or not the season turns around.
What Will Happen: Does Arkansas State have enough in the bag to pull off the upset? Offensively, yes, and it'll keep pace with the Vols for a while, but the defense won't be able to handle the Tennessee running game that'll take over in the second half.
CFN Prediction: Tennessee 34 ... Arkansas State 21 ... Line: Tennessee -18.5
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 2.5
 

FIU (0-3) at Kansas (3-0)  7:00 PM
Why to Watch: Is Kansas really this good? The Jayhawks might not have played anyone yet (Central Michigan, SE Louisiana and Toledo), but this is still a big start for a program not used to a whole bunch of success. The apparent layup against FIU will make KU 4-0 for the first time since 1995's 10-2 season, and will make the Kansas State showdown two weeks after even more riveting. You might not realize it, considering the offense has scored 19 points in three games, but the Golden Panthers have improved under new head coach Mario Cristobal. On a 15-game losing streak, the program desperately needs a layup game, and this isn't it. Kansas is playing as well as anyone in the country right now, and if focused, should put up a monster number on the board for a fourth straight week.
Why FIU Might Win: The only shot FIU has of winning is if Kansas wakes up and realizes it's Kansas. The only possible knock on the Jayhawks so far is the average pass protection, while the Golden Panthers have been solid so far at getting to the quarterback with seven sacks and 23 tackles for loss in the three games. The defense did a good job of keeping Maryland and Miami under wraps.
Why Kansas Might Win: You can't win if you can't score. FIU has come up with 19 points so far, while KU has score 19 points or more in four different quarters. The Jayhawk offense is humming on all cylinders with a nearly perfect blend of running and passing, mixed in with just enough explosion to put teams away early. Oh yeah, the defense, KU is fourth in the nation in total and scoring D. Go ahead and rain on the offensive numbers a bit, KU hasn't faced a defense yet, but CMU and Toledo can put up points and yards; the defense appears early on to be the real deal.
Who to Watch: Joe Mortensen. No one has any idea who he is, even though he was KU's second leading tackler last year. He's a junior linebacker with the toughness to stuff things on the inside, and the quickness to wreak havoc on the outside when used as a pass rusher. He's been consistently fabulous so far, and even though he wasn't turned loose against Toledo, he was still a presence against the run. When FIU's running game struggles to gain 50 yards, Mortensen will be one of the main reasons.
What Will Happen: Kansas will score 14 points in the first quarter, and it'll only get worse from there. If fully focused and slightly mean, the Jayhawks could win this game by 60.
CFN Prediction: Kansas 48 ... FIU 10 ... Line: Kansas -30.5
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 1.5
 

Troy (1-2) at UL Lafayette (0-3)  7:00 PM
Why to Watch: Troy got over it's early season woes in a big hurry with a nationally televised thumping of Oklahoma State to give the program, and the Sun Belt, a huge feather in their caps. The defending conference champions start out with a tougher-than-it-looks battle with a UL Lafayette team considered to be a favorite for the title, but is coming off an ugly loss to McNeese State. The Ragin' Cajuns have struggled everywhere but on the scoreboard, playing South Carolina and Ohio tough before the MSU embarrassment. This is the last game in a three-game homestand, and if they can't win now, things could get really ugly, really fast. Troy is playing, arguably, the four worst Sun Belt teams in the first four conference games before getting Arkansas State, Middle Tennessee and Florida Atlantic. It can't afford a slip.
Why Troy Might Win: How did ULL lost to McNeese State? It couldn't stop the run, and four interceptions thrown by Michael Desormeaux. The defensive front hasn't been all that great, even though it's had its moments at getting into the backfield. It's not a good enough D to handle Troy QB Omar Haugabook if he starts to get on a roll scrambling and making plays on the move. The Trojans don't make too many mistakes, outside of the one Haugabook interception a game, and it'll bring a crisp passing game that's starting to play extremely well.
Why UL Lafayette Might Win: Troy's supposedly known for its defense, but it can't stop the run. In fact, it's dead last in America in run defense after allowing 350 yards to Arkansas, 264 to Florida, and 241 to Oklahoma State. ULL can throw a bit if it wants to, but the combination of Tyrell Fenroy and Desormeaux will be the stars. The two could each roll for 100 yards, and if Desormeaux can be efficient throwing the ball, the pieces are there to pull off the win.
Who to Watch: Even though Fenroy is the workhorse the ULL offense revolves around, Desormeaux has to be on, and he has to outplay Haugabook. The junior had a nice game against Ohio, ran for 116 yards against South Carolina, and then struggle against McNeese State, completing 11 of 24 passes for 163 yards with a touchdown and four interceptions. He was also held to 46 rushing yards. Troy's secondary has had to do most of the cleanup work so far, but if Leodis McKelvin, Tavares Williams and Elbert Mack are making most of the stops on Desormeaux, it'll be a long game for the Trojans.
What Will Happen: Troy will force four ULL turnovers that'll be the difference in an otherwise dead even game. This could be the best Sun Belt game of the weekend if ULL plays up to its capability.
CFN Prediction: Troy 30 ... UL Lafayette 23 ... Line: Kansas -30.5
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation) ... 1.5