Sun Belt Fearless Predictions, Sept. 29

Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 Sun Belt Games.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State | Florida Atlantic | Florida International | MTSU
North Texas | Troy | UL Lafayette | UL Monroe

Sun Belt Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 20-6 ... ATS: 10-13-1

Sun Belt Week Five Fearless Predictions, Part 2

Sun Belt Game of the Week

UL Monroe (0-3) at Troy (2-2)  7:00 PM
Why to watch: Is UL Monroe actually a possible player in the Sun Belt title race? Is this the team that rolled through the final few weeks of last year's schedule with an explosive offense, or is it the team that got blasted in its first three games of the year against Tulsa, Clemson and Texas A&M? To be fair, and more accurate, the Warhawks battled against Tulsa and Clemson, and are finally getting a chance to face a team at its own level. Troy, on the other hand, stepped out of its class and blew past Oklahoma State before beating UL Lafayette to open up the Sun Belt race. The Trojans only have one home game after this until late November, so a win this week is a must.
Why UL Monroe might win: Troy's run defense has been awful so far, with the front line getting pushed around way too much and the linebackers getting blown past. Statistically, this is the nation's worst team against the run, allowing 1,200 yards in four games, including last year's debacle against a Tyrell Fenroy-less (for the most part due to injury) UL Lafayette team, allowing 345 yards and three scores. The Warhawks are running as well as ever, averaging 233 yards per game. 350 is a good mark to shoot for.
Why Troy might win: ULM hasn't gotten any production out of its defensive front and likely won't get enough pressure on Omar Haugabook. The Troy quarterback hasn't always been sharp, but he's been on fire over the last two games, completing 69% of his passes against Oklahoma State and UL Lafayette, and he should be able to dink and dunk his way to his heart's content on the ULM defense. The Warhawk corners have talent, but the Troy receivers should be able to exploit several holes that Clemson's Cullen Harper found when he completed 20 of 26 passes fro 270 yards and five scores.
Who to watch: While Troy DE Kenny Mainor didn't do much last week against the run, he's still trying to get his feet wet after being suspended for the first few games. Arguably the Sun Belt's best speed rusher, he came up with five tackles and a sack against UL Lafayette, and now he has to be a regular in the backfield to stop Calvin Dawson and the ULM running game before it gets started.
What will happen: ULM will play far better than it has over the first few weeks, but Troy will have more balance and more pop to the passing game.
CFN Prediction: Troy 31 ... UL Monroe 23 ... Line: Troy -12.5
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 2

Sun Belt Thursday, Sept. 27

Memphis (1-2) at Arkansas State (1-2)  7:00 PM
Why to watch: Don’t be fooled by Arkansas State’s 1-2 start to the 2007 season.  This is a quality Sun Belt Conference team that destroyed SMU two weeks ago and held up well in losses to Texas and Tennessee.  The Indians boast a balanced offense featuring shifty QB Corey Leonard and big-play RB Reggie Arnold, and a veteran defense that’ll improve its numbers now that the toughest part of the schedule is in the rear view mirror.  It’s gut-check time for Memphis and Tommy West following a 56-20 whooping administered by UCF last weekend.  The Tigers appeared to be turning the corner after nearly upsetting Ole Miss and beating Jacksonville State, but last week’s debacle may have set the program back to 2006 when little went right.  The two schools will have a hard time topping last year’s meeting, which was decided on a 47-yard desperation heave from Leonard that gave Arkansas State a memorable win.
Why Memphis might win: Although Arkansas State is loaded with top starters in the secondary, it hasn’t made much of a difference during the first month of the season.  The Indians have allowed four touchdown passes in each of the last two games, pushing their pass defense ranking to No. 98 in the country.  This week more than ever, the Tigers will rely on gunslinging QB Martin Hankins to make the most of his big, athletic corps of receivers.  There’s a chance Memphis’ top pass-catcher, Duke Calhoun, will return from a knee injury, which will put even more pressure on the slumping Arkansas State secondary.
Why Arkansas State might win: Faced with an offense that can run or pass last week, the Memphis defense simply came apart at the seams, allowing 601 yards and 28 first downs to UCF.  The Tigers will face a similar attack this Thursday night and potentially similar results.  Arkansas State actually outgained Texas by 67 yards in the opener and moved the ball well on Tennessee last week, so its No. 3 ranking in Sun Belt total offense is hardly a product of a weak early schedule.
Who to watch: Arkansas State needs senior S Tyrell Johnson to supercharge a secondary that has underachieved in the early going.  The preseason Sun Belt Defensive Player of the Year is a thumper that leads the Indians in tackles and has two interceptions, one that went for a 54-yard touchdown against the Vols last week.  The NFL scouts are taking note.
What will happen: Two teams headed in opposite directions will continue down those paths this week.  A broken Memphis defense won’t be able to stop an Arkansas State attack that’s better than advertised.
CFN Prediction: Arkansas State 37 … Memphis 24 ... Line: Arkansas State -4 
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 2

Sun Belt Saturday, Sept. 29

Florida Atlantic (3-1) at Kentucky (4-0)   1:00 PM GamePlan
Why to watch: Kentucky thought it had completely gotten rid of Louisville for the year, but former Cardinal head man Howard Schnellenberger will be looking to do what his former team couldn't and come up with a win over the Wildcats. FAU is on a nice two game winning streak, complete with a stunning upset over Minnesota, and with a newfound passing attack, it could keep pace with Andre Woodson and the boys for more than just a half. UK is riding high on a five-game winning streak, and proved that the UL win wasn't any sort of a fluke by beating Arkansas 42-29. With a brutal three-game stretch to follow, playing at South Carolina, LSU, and Florida, the Cats could use an easy tune-up. It might not get it.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: Don't let the statistics fool you; there are still question marks about the Kentucky secondary. Louisville is the one team on the schedule able to throw the ball with any effectiveness, and Brian Brohm went for 366 yards. If Rusty Smith and the Owl passing attack gets into the groove it found over the last few weeks, this could quickly get into a shootout, and Kentucky, who's certain to be treating this as a sandwich game, could be in trouble. FAU doesn't make many mistakes, and is strong at forcing turnovers, with 16 takeaways so far.
Why Kentucky might win: It's not like the Owl defense has stopped anyone. It's a decent defense for the Sun Belt, but it doesn't have the secondary to handle all the Wildcat weapons, and it doesn't have nearly enough talent to deal with the UK's overall offensive balance. As good as the passing game has been over the last two weeks, that was against North Texas and Minnesota; teams with two of the worst secondaries in America.
Who to watch: Just how good is Smith? The 6-5, 215-pound sophomore is a pure pro style passer who threw for 463 yards and five touchdowns against Minnesota, and bombed away for 322 yards and a score against North Texas. He's been good at keeping his mistakes to a minimum, and he's been fantastic at spreading the ball around. FAU can't go conservative and have any sort of a shot, so Smith will have to put it up at least 40 times.
What will happen: The two teams will combine for 600 passing yards, but Kentucky will also crank out at least 150 on the ground.
CFN Prediction: Kentucky 45 ... Florida Atlantic 20... Line: Kentucky -23
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 2

Sun Belt Week Five Fearless Predictions, Part 2