Sun Belt Fearless Predictions, Oct. 6

Previews and Predictions for the Week 6 Sun Belt Games.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State | Florida Atlantic | Florida International | MTSU
North Texas | Troy | UL Lafayette | UL Monroe

Sun Belt Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 26-6 ... ATS: 13-15-2

Sun Belt Week Five Fearless Predictions, Part 2

Sun Belt Game of the Week

Arkansas State (2-2) at UL Monroe (0-4)  7:00 PM
Why to Watch: After a strong start to the season, pushing Texas and Tennessee in losses, and beating SMU and Memphis, Arkansas State finally gets a chance to kick off its Sun Belt season against a UL Monroe team that desperately needs a win to turn thing around. One of the hot teams at the end of 2006, the Warhawks have started out 0-4, with a loss to Troy last week, and can kiss all hopes of a Sun Belt title goodbye with a loss this week. Two of the league's strongest running games should make for a speedy, interesting game.
Why Arkansas State Might Win: UL Monroe can't stop the run. The defensive line hasn't been physical enough so far, and should have a hard time against an ASU front that can blast away in the running game, but can't pass protect. On the other side, the ASU run defense, helped immensely by a tremendous pair of safeties, have been great against the run. ULM QB Kinsmon Lancaster will have a hard time getting on the move if Calvin Dawson isn't running well.
Why UL Monroe Might Win: While the Indian defense has done a great job of preventing runners from making short runs long, it's not doing much to dictate things behind the line. So far, this has been more of a read-and-react defensive line, unable to get into the backfield or provide any sort of pressure in passing situations. ULM hasn't been able to throw so far, but if it wants to try, at least to get the short to midrange throws going, this would be the time.
Who to Watch: Don't blame Calvin Dawson for ULM's 0-4 start. All the senior has done is run for 100 yards in each of the first four games, and caught seven passes over the last two weeks. He now has nine straight games with 100 yards or more, but while he's doing what he can to carry the offense, he needs help from Lancaster and the passing game to get even more out of the offense. ASU might assume Dawson will get his yards, and it won't matter.
What Will Happen: ASU's offensive balance will overcome a 150-yard day from Dawson. ASU QB Corey Leonard will outplay Lancaster, and that'll be the difference.
CFN Prediction: Arkansas State 27 ... UL Monroe 20 ... Line: Arkansas State -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 1.5

Sun Belt Saturday, Oct. 6

South Florida (4-0) at Florida Atlantic (3-2)   3:30 PM ESPNU
Why to watch: After taking small, methodical steps for years under Jim Leavitt, South Florida made a quantum leap last Friday night when it upset West Virginia in a program-defining win.  And all of a sudden, the little engine that could has been transformed into a locomotive, speeding to the favorite role in the Big East and a No. 6 ranking in the latest AP poll.  USF is sizzling these days, so it’ll be up to Leavitt to keep his kids focused on this week’s game with Florida Atlantic, a program that would like to use the Bulls as a blueprint for its own success story.  The Owls have an early lead in the Sun Belt Conference, courtesy of wins over Middle Tennessee State and North Texas, along with the confidence that comes with beating a Big Ten team, Minnesota, last month.  Knocking South Florida off its pedestal is just what Howard Schnellenberger needs to bring national exposure to his burgeoning program.
Why South Florida might win: The Bulls are built on a ferocious, speedy defense, but on this Saturday, the game will be on the offense.  In Florida Atlantic’s three games with BCS opponents, it’s surrendered an average of 42 points and almost 500 yards a game.  QB Matt Grothe will move the chains with his usual versatility, and RB Mike Ford will continue his push to become the Big East Offensive Freshman of the Year.  The Owls lack balance on offense, averaging just 113 yards a game on the ground, which is a recipe for problems against that swarming South Florida D.
Why Florida Atlantic might win: When facing a superior opponent, the one way to close the gap is by creating turnovers, something the Owls are doing better than all but one team in the country.  Led by freshman CB Tavious Polo’s seven interceptions, Florida Atlantic has 18 takeaways through five games, a testament to the aggressive style of play preached by defensive coordinator Kirk Hoza.  Sophomore QB Rusty Smith is an X factor, who carried the Owls to the upset of Minnesota with five touchdown passes and 463 yards on 27-of-44 passing.
Who to watch: If Florida Atlantic gets down early, the ball will be in the air plenty, meaning lots of opportunities for top-flight CBs Mike Jenkins and Trae Williams to break up passes and create turnovers.  The Bulls have allowed just one touchdown pass in the first three quarters of games this year, largely because of the air-tight coverage provided by their two senior corners.
What will happen: The last time South Florida was prone to being unfocused, it steamrolled North Carolina 37-10.  While a sluggish start isn’t out of the question, Leavitt won’t allow a letdown from a group kids that believe it’s a part of something special.
CFN Prediction: South Florida 30 … Florida Atlantic 16 ... Line: South Florida -15.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 2
 

Troy (3-2) at Florida International (0-5)  7:00 PM
Why to Watch: On a 17-game losing streak, Florida International will look to jumpstart the Mario Cristobal era by beating the Sun Belt's best team. Troy us on a three-game winning streak, steamrolling its way through the Sun Belt with wins over UL Lafayette and UL Monroe, thanks to the tremendous play of QB Omar Haugabook and the league's best offense. It's best vs. worst, so will the Trojans look past this game as a breather? FIU certainly hopes so. 
Why Troy Might Win: You can't win if you can't score, and FIU is having a nightmare of a time putting points on the board, failing to hit double-digit point totals in four of the first five games. Making things worse is a defense that's struggling against everything. Last week, Middle Tennessee QB Dwight Dasher went nuts, throwing for three touchdowns and running for two more. Haugabook had to be drooling in the film room this week.
Why Florida International Might Win: Troy can't stop the run, and for all the talent on the defensive line, it's not doing anything to get into the backfield, either. Dead last in the nation in run defense, most due to playing rushing juggernauts in Arkansas, Florida and UL Monroe, FIU has to keep grinding it out to try to establish something to take the pressure off the struggling passing game. Even if things aren't working for a few series, FIU has to keep trying. Eventually, the big runs will come.
Who to Watch: Looking to shore up the Troy run defense, especially against a ground game that isn't among the best in America, is Troy sophomore LB Boris Lee, who's third in the Sun Belt in tackles, and coming off a 12-stop game in the win over UL Monroe. The Warhawks might have gotten a good day out of star RB Calvin Dawson, but they were held to only 189 yards because QB Kinsmon Lancaster wasn't able to get running. It's up to Lee to make the key stops, and he'll do it this week.
What Will Happen: Troy won't take this game lightly. The defense will come up with its best performance of the year, while Haugabook will come up with a Sun Belt Player of the Year type of day.
CFN Prediction: Troy 35 ... Florida International 10 ... Line: Troy -18.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 1.5
 

North Texas (0-4) at UL Lafayette (0-5)  7:00 PM GamePlan
Why to Watch: Someone's finally going to get a win. Both teams come in on six-game losing streaks, with UL Lafayette needing to take advantage of one of the three home games is has left, and North Texas looking for the first win in the Todd Dodge era. The funky Mean Green passing attack hasn't been able to produce much after the epic 601-yard day against SMU, but it'll try to keep the pressure on against a secondary that's been good, but not out of this world. ULL is ninth in the nation running the ball, while UNT is ninth throwing it.
Why North Texas Might Win: The Ragin' Cajuns haven't given up a ton of yards through the air, but everyone's been able to eat their secondary alive with short to midrange throws. It's not like they've played a who's who of passing teams, getting picked apart by Ohio and Troy, and now UNT will throw, throw, and throw some more with its quick timing plays to try to get into some kind of a groove. However, UNT has to get the ball, because ...
Why UL Lafayette Might Win: ULL should be able to control the clock with it running game. Injuries have been an issue throughout the UNT defense, especially killing the depth, and if there are field position issues like there have been over the last few weeks, ULL should be able to take advantage. It's not like the Ragin' Cajuns have been brutally ugly in their losing streak. They simply haven't been able to come up with enough key defensive stops. If they hold UNT to under 28, they'll win.
Who to Watch: 601-yard passing day against SMU aside, UNT starting QB Daniel Meager is getting pushed a bit for playing time after struggling to move the offense against Arkansas. Forget about any sort of a quarterback controversy; the coaching staff has been adamant that Meager is the starter. The decision was been made easier thanks to an 8-of-26, 118-yard, one interception performance against the Hogs. Vizzi's redshirt status was blown by playing, and now he'll see time as a change of pace.
What Will Happen: The inconsistencies of the North Texas offense will far outweigh the inconsistencies of the ULL attack. The Mean Green will throw for 400 yards, and it won't be enough.
CFN Prediction: UL Lafayette 38 .. .North Texas 23 ... Line: UL Lafayette -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 1
 

Virginia (4-1) at Middle Tennessee (1-4)  7:00 PM
Why to Watch: This is a big deal, even if MTSU is 1-4. The Blue Raiders are trying to build some momentum after last week’s 47-6 rout of Florida International, and are hoping to continue the Sun Belt momentum at home against BCS teams, with Florida Atlantic beating Minnesota and Troy beating Oklahoma State. Virginia, meanwhile, takes an interlude from ACC play, where it has established itself as something of a surprise. The biggest shocker comes on offense, where the Cavs have rebounded nicely from week one’s inept performance at Wyoming. We’re not talking juggernaut here, but last week’s 44-14 win over Pittsburgh showed how effective the O can be without any wide receiver stars.
Why Virginia Might Win: After last week, it looks like the Cavs are finally ready to go on O. Jameel Sewell played most of the game at QB and threw for 169 yards and three scores and also ran for 64 yards. It was an all-around excellent effort, and teamed with the production of Cedric Peerman in the ground game, it gave UVA a balanced, potent attack. If those two are on top of things the offense, which has scored at least 22 points in each of the last four games, will be fine. You already know about the sturdy Virginia D, which is solid against the run and improving against the pass.
Why Middle Tennessee Might Win: The Blue Raiders will rely heavily on new starting QB Dwight Dasher, who was a touchdown machine against Florida International, throwing for three and rushing for two. If he’s given some time to operate, Dasher can beat teams in all phases. The freshman has taken a little time to get going after taking over in the third game, against LSU, but he seems to be more comfortable. He’ll try to make use of all-purpose weapon Desmond Gee, a sophomore back, who could touch the ball 30 times through runs, passes and returns. If Virginia’s defense lets down, it could be stunned.
Who to Watch: Even though Peerman was “held” to 87 yards rushing against Pittsburgh, he scored twice and remains the ACC’s most productive back with 566 yards, establishing himself as the main offensive weapon, and not always Sewell, the offense revolves around. He has topped 100 yards in three of the last four games, with a 186-yard effort against North Carolina his high-water mark.
What Will Happen: The Cavaliers will use their offensive balance and solid defense to keep Middle Tennessee from getting too much traction.  However, it’ll take at least three quarters to put it away.
CFN Prediction: Virginia 30 … Middle Tennessee 13 ... Line: Virginia -10
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 1.5