Sun Belt Fearless Predictions, Oct. 13

Previews and Predictions for the Week 7 Sun Belt Games.

Sun Belt
Arkansas State | Florida Atlantic | Florida International | MTSU
North Texas | Troy | UL Lafayette | UL Monroe

Sun Belt Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 30-7 ... ATS: 15-16-2

Sun Belt Game of the Week

UL Lafayette (1-5) at Arkansas State (2-3)  7:00 EST
Why to watch: What happened to Arkansas State? Appearing all ready to make a huge splash to start the Sun Belt season, the Indians came out with a clunker in a 30-13 loss to UL Monroe, and now they have to chase with no chance for any more slips. Meanwhile, UL Lafayette got past its 0-5 start with a win over North Texas, and could desperately use a win here to get into the race. The rushing attack is the best in the Sun Belt, and it needs to dominate to overcome a horrible defense that should have problems with ASU's balance. Call this an elimination game, and it should be entertaining.
Why UL Lafayette might win: While the ASU run defense has been solid, it doesn't get much production from the defensive line with no pressure into the backfield whatsoever. ULL's ground game shouldn't have to worry too much about losing yards, and there should be several chances for Michael Desormeaux and Tyrell Fenroy to get to the next level and force the ASU defensive backfield to make stops. If ULM could run for 235 yards on ASU, 250 should be an easy goal for ULL.
Why Arkansas State might win: Arkansas State's run defense hasn't been bad, but ULL's run defense has been horrific, getting ripped apart by anyone who wants to consistently commit to the ground game. ASU's O line has been mediocre in pass protection, but it can pound away for Corey Leonard and Reggie Arnold to run without much of a problem. ASU and ULL each do some of the same things, but ASU throws far, far better.
Who to watch: With the way ULL is looking to run, it'll be up to ASU's Koby McKinnon to lead the linebacking corps to keep Desormeaux from getting down the field and weaving his way through the secondary. He's been one of the league's best tacklers so far this year, with 44 tackles, and he's been the main man over the last two weeks with 11 tackles against both Memphis and UL Monroe.
What will happen: Arkansas State will play like the team many though it'd be coming into the Sun Belt season. The Indian offensive balance will overcome the strong Ragin' Cajun ground game.  
CFN Prediction: Arkansas State 34 ... UL Lafayette 23 ... Line: Arkansas State -9
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 1.5  

Sun Belt Saturday, Oct. 13

UL Monroe (1-4) at North Texas (0-5)  7:00 EST GamePlan
Why to watch: North Texas might not be very good, but it sure is entertaining. The Todd Dodge, Mean Green offense is averaging 341 passing yards per game, but the defense is giving up yards and points just as fast on an ugly seven-game losing streak. UL Monroe lost its first four games before shocking Arkansas State 30-13 to get into the Sun Belt race. With a home game against Florida International ahead next week, the Warhawks can be 3-1 in Sun Belt play going into the road trip against Florida Atlantic.
Why UL Monroe might win: The North Texas defense isn't' doing anything right. Yeah, Oklahoma and Arkansas fattened up the statistics, but lightweights like SMU, Florida Atlantic and UL Lafayette have had a great time, too. The Mean Green is dead last in the nation allowing 547 yards and 51.6 points per game. There's no pressure coming from the defensive front, no big plays from the secondary, no takeaways. Nothing. It's ULM's turn at back.
Why North Texas might win: Beating North Texas requires an offense with a pulse, and while ULM can run, it's not a strong attack. More importantly, stopping the pass is a plus, and ULM has one of the nation's worst pass defenses despite playing few teams that bomb away. The Warhawks have dealt with efficient passers, but not any bombers. This week, they'll have to handle getting thrown on, and thrown on, and thrown on some more.
Who to watch: UNT's Giovanni Vizza isn't big, but he's extremely fast, mobile, and has a strong arm. With things going south,  the coaching staff turned to Vizza to get him some work and some seasoning, and he threw for 383 yards and three touchdowns on 57 attempts, but he also threw three interceptions. He'll make a ton of mistakes and should throw a bunch of picks, but he'll also add positive yards running the ball.
What will happen: North Texas will throw for over 400 yards, UL Monroe will run for over 300 yards, and the team that gives away the most turnovers will lose. That'll be North Texas.                
CFN Prediction: UL Monroe 48 ... North Texas 43 ... Line: UL Monroe -7
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 1.5  

Middle Tennessee (1-5) at Memphis (2-3)  8:00 EST
Why to watch: After defeating Marshall just two days after the violent death of a teammate, Memphis has a chance to get to the .500 mark at the halfway point of the season.  While it may not seem like much, it would represent a step in the right direction for a program that won just two games a year ago.  Tommy West is saying otherwise, but the Tigers could be headed toward a full-blown quarterback controversy starting this weekend.  While starter Martin Hankins might return from a hip pointer this week, his backup, Will Hudgens, impressed in last week’s victory, going 30-of-45 for 346 yards and two touchdowns.  More important, he didn’t throw a pick, something that’s plagued Hankins throughout his college career.  As 1-5 teams go, Middle Tennessee has been no pushover this fall.  The Blue Raiders slapped 42 points on Louisville, held up well at LSU, and came within a last-second field goal from knocking off Virginia last Saturday.  In multi-dimensional true freshman QB Dwight Dasher, they also have a potential cornerstone player to build around for the next four seasons.
Why Middle Tennessee might win: Dasher couldn’t be more appropriately named, using his legs and shifty moves to break down opposing defenses, such as Memphis, which is giving up 412 yards and 30 points a game.  He’s led the team in rushing the last three games without committing a turnover.  Since escaping the gauntlet of Louisville and LSU, the Blue Raiders D has performed beyond expectations, allowing just 49 points in three games and clamping down on opposing quarterbacks.  Whoever takes snaps for the Tigers will have a difficult time moving the ball on a veteran MT secondary.
Why Memphis might win: The Tiger passing game may not go ballistic Saturday night, but it will do enough to keep drives going and move the team into scoring position.  Over the last four games, Memphis has thrown nine touchdown passes and just one pick, aided by the healthy return of top receiver Duke Calhoun.  The Tigers won’t need to light up the scoreboard to defeat a Middle Tennessee team that hasn’t been able to establish a running game and has been held to 21 or fewer points four times this season.
Who to watch: Headed by Calhoun, Memphis has a very deep and sizable corps of receivers that’ll challenge opposing secondaries the entire year.  When Calhoun was out, Maurice Jones, Steven Black, and Carlos Singleton stepped up their games, and now that the headliner is back, the Tigers have one of the best group of pass-catchers in Conference USA.
What will happen: Beating Marshall a week ago signaled a turning point in the season for Memphis.  While not ready to challenge in the East, the Tigers will get enough from the passing game to get past an inconsistent Middle Tennessee State that’s playing away from home for the first time in a month.                 
CFN Prediction: Memphis 38 ... Middle Tennessee 21. Line: Memphis -4
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki Matsui's "collection" - 1 The Heartbreak Kid) ... 1.5