WAC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 15

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 13, 2007


Previews and Predictions for the Week 3 WAC Games.


WAC  
Boise State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Idaho | Louisiana Tech
Nevada | New Mexico St | San Jose State | Utah State


WAC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1Sept. 8 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
 Oct. 6Oct. 13 | Oct. 20Oct. 27 | Nov. 3Nov. 10 | Nov. 17Nov. 24Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 16-1 ... ATS: 6-4-1

WAC Week Three Fearless Predictions, Part 2

WAC Game of the Week

Wyoming (2-0) at Boise State (1-1)  8:00 PM GamePlan
Why to Watch: Boise State quickly came back down to earth in last week’s ugly loss to Washington, which snapped its 14-game winning streak and left them winless against BCS schools on the road. While the Huskies might be really good, that doesn’t cut it for a Bronco team that wants to be considered among the nation’s elite. That’s why the slide has to stop right now before WAC play kicks in. Wyoming, meanwhile, is 2-0 for the first time under Joe Glenn after its 32-18 win over Utah State, and the Cowboys appear to be putting together a pretty stout defense. Granted, USU and Virginia, Wyoming’s first week victim, aren’t juggernauts, but the program is heading in the right direction.
Why Wyoming Might Win: The Cowboys still have several holes, but are quickly becoming a team that could challenge for the Mountain West title. The UW ground game, which entered the season a question because of a rebuilt offensive line, is cooking with Devin Moore (210 yards) and Wynel Seldon (159) leading the way. Senior QB Karsten Sween has been strong, although interceptions have been a problem. As long as he keeps the mistakes to a minimum, and if the defensive line can slow down RB Ian Johnson and make the Broncos try to win through the air, an upset is more than possible. Wyoming has allowed rivals to gain just 2.2 yards per carry.
Why Boise State Might Win: Okay, so the Cowboys have stifled Virginia and Utah State, but let’s not anoint this bunch the Rockies’ version of LSU. Boise State struggled against Washington, because the Huskies had some good size and speed in the front seven and the secondary to make QB Taylor Tharp struggle. Wyoming doesn’t have that kind of personnel. If Wyoming chooses to pack the box, expect Tharp to be more effective against the Cowboy secondary, which is allowing opponents to complete 57.4% of their passes. Tharp, a fifth-year senior making just his third-ever start, was shaky against Washington late. He must be more reliable, and the Broncos must avoid the mistakes that plagued them.
Who to Watch: Sween was up and down during his freshman season and has had a similarly inconsistent start to this season. He’s completing 66.7% of his passes, and that’s great. But he has thrown three interceptions already and just two touchdowns. That’s not so great, but he has loads of talent and the potential to be the type of player who can carry the Cowboys to a MWC title. He can’t be erratic against the Broncos, or they will make him pay, particularly on the road.
What Will Happen: Wyoming gave Boise State all it could handle last year, and now it’s improved. However, this will be a jacked up Bronco team after the UW loss, and it’ll play like Boise State again at home.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 31 … Wyoming 20 ... Line: Boise State -12.5 
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 3

WAC Saturday, Sept. 15

Utah State (0-2) at Oklahoma (2-0)  3:30 pm ESPN2
Why to Watch: If you’re a fan of spinning scoreboards and the old Sooner teams of yesterday, which used to hang half a hundred without breathing hard, then this is the game for you. Oklahoma is averaging 65 points a game, and a visit from the 0-2 Aggies, who have blown two consecutive fourth-quarter leads, isn’t going to hurt that average. The Sooners blasted Miami, 51-13, last week and are now being considered among the nation’s elite, along with USC and LSU, and in the national title hunt. If you thought Appalachian State beating Michigan was a shocker, a Utah State win would be even bigger.
Why Utah State Might Win: To keep it close, QB Leon Jackson has to use his leg as well as his arm to keep the chains moving, and he has to do everything possible to avoid turnovers. The Sooners have picked off three passes and returned one for a touchdown, and Jackson is going to have to press early on. Running back Curtis Marsh has to solid enough to establish some semblance of a ground game on the opening drive. This is a veteran Aggie team that’s playing far better than it did last year, and if OU is snoozing after the big win over Miami, this might not be too bad until after halftime.
Why Oklahoma Might Win: Oklahoma’s offense has been outstanding, thanks to redshirt freshman QB Sam Bradford, who is a ridiculous 40-of-48 for 568 yards with eight scores and no picks. He has a deep receiving corps, led by big-play man Malcolm Kelly, and running back DeMarco Murray has 151 yards on the ground and five touchdowns. It’s all stemming from an offensive line that isn’t allowing Bradford to get touched. The Sooner defense hasn’t been overwhelming, but the secondary showed against Miami why it’s among the best in America, while the run defense is allowing just one yard per carry.
Whom to Watch: Anybody who wondered whether Bradford was up to the job of running the show doesn’t have too many doubts now. He has been accurate, confident and capable of making the big play down the field. A lot of young QBs are kept in a cocoon and just throw short passes. Not Bradford, who has been able to throw it all over the place without making too many mistakes. Even against Miami, which was supposed to be formidable defensively, he looked in control and produced well.
What Will Happen: The Sooners, won’t be as sharp as they’ve been over he first two games, but they’ll score early and often.
CFN Prediction: Oklahoma 48 … Utah State 6 ... Line: Oklahoma -46 
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 1.5

Louisiana Tech (1-1) at California (2-0)
  6:30 PM
Why to watch: Just how good is California? After getting gobs of national love following a 45-31 win over Tennessee, the defense struggled again as Colorado State made it way too close in a 34-28 Bear win. With the Pac 10 schedule kicking off next week against Arizona, the Bears have to dump on Louisiana Tech and use this game to make sure everything is in place on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs aren't planning on being a bunch of tackling dummies, especially after a strong overtime loss to Hawaii. New head coach Derek Dooley isn't afraid to take chances, and he'll have his team playing loose and with nothing to lose.
Why Louisiana Tech might win: The Cal defense hasn't decided to start the season yet, especially against the pass, getting picked apart for 572 yards in the first two games. Louisiana Tech doesn't have a high-powered attack, but QB Zac Champion and the passing game were effective enough against Hawaii to keep pace and come though with the clutch drives late when needed. As long as the Bulldogs can maintain a balance, they should be able to trade punches.
Why California might win: Louisiana Tech was able to stay alive against Hawaii by forcing three turnovers, and came up with six takeaways against Central Arkansas. The only way the Bulldogs can have any shot to keep it close is by creating a ton of turnovers, but that's not likely to happen. Besides being explosive, balanced and effective, the Cal offense has been relatively error-free so far. Yes, the Tech offense was effective last week, but it doesn't have the consistent passing game to keep up the pace if Cal starts to make this a shootout early on.
Who to watch: While everyone wants to see Cal's DeSean Jackson with the ball in his hands, especially as a punt returner, Louisiana Tech has just as much explosion on returns, along with a strong punting game. While he's only had three chances so far, Tech junior Philip Beck has made the most of them, returning three punts for 121 yards to lead the nation with a 40.3-yard average. The Bulldogs are currently second in the nation in net punting, with Chris Keagle currently sixth with a 47.3-yard average.
What will happen: Cal's defense will once again be shaky, but the offense will blow the doors off the Bulldogs and make this a laugher by halftime.
CFN Prediction: California 51 ... Louisiana Tech 20 ... Line: California -33.5
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2
  


Fresno State (1-1) at Oregon (2-0)  7:00 PM GamePlan
Why to watch: For the Bulldogs and the Ducks, last Saturday became a throwback weekend, with the latter playing like a bona fide top 15 team, and the former scaring the bejeesus out of a major BCS team.  Behind the suddenly deft passing of Dennis Dixon, Oregon thumped Michigan in Ann Arbor, a sign it might be winning its five-year battle with mediocrity.  The unexpectedly easy win has also propelled the Ducks into the Top 25, but it has also put the spotlight back on. Considering the way the team faded last year, it can’t afford a mental let down this week.  Fresno State put up a valiant fight at Texas A&M, coming back from a 19-point deficit before losing in triple overtime.  After bottoming out last year and seeing Boise State, Hawaii, and Nevada struggle on Saturday, the rejuvenated Bulldogs have to believe that the WAC title is within reach.  It might seem too simplistic, but this one might come down to who’s head is in the game.
Why Fresno State might win: As hot as Dixon has been to start the season, he’s going to find air travel a little more congested this week than it was against Houston and Michigan.  Led by senior CB Damon Jenkins, the Bulldog pass defense has been air-tight, allowing just a single touchdown pass in two games while holding opponents to a nation’s-low 2.9 yards per attempt.  Do not underestimate the importance of DT Jason Shirley’s return from suspension.  He’s a 6-5, 335-pound space-eater, who’ll literally be a huge addition to the Fresno run defense.
Why Oregon might win: Through two games, the Quack Attack has been humming, averaging 335 yards a game on the ground to go along with a vastly improved passing game.  Fresno State might be able to stop one of the two, but not both.  After laboring to slow down big Jorvorskie Lane last week, the Bulldogs will want no part of 230-pound Jonathan Stewart.  Be sure to follow the bouncing ball at Autzen Stadium.  While Oregon is No. 3 nationally in turnover margin, Fresno State is ranked 110th out of 119 programs. 
Who to watch: After scratching the surface of his potential in 2006, WR Brian Paysinger appears poised for a breakout final season in Eugene.  Blessed with terrific size and speed, he’s caught four balls in each game for 160 yards and two touchdowns, which is going to get Jenkins’ attention this weekend.  
What will happen: In recent years, games between these two schools are never decided by too many points.  This year won’t be different.  Fresno State will put up a good fight into the second half before Oregon pulls away on the backs of Stewart and his backup, Jeremiah Johnson.   
CFN Prediction: Oregon 38 … Fresno State 27 ... Line: Oregon -16.5 
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2.5
   

UTEP (1-1) at New Mexico State (1-1)
  8:00 PM
Why to watch: There’ll be plenty of balls in the air Saturday night as UTEP and New Mexico State renew their I-10 rivalry in Las Cruces.  With Mike Price and Hal Mumme on the sidelines, anything can and will happen on the offensive side of the ball.  The Miners have had somewhat of a strange start to the season, upsetting New Mexico in a defensive struggle before losing a close game with Texas Tech in a shootout.  On a team that’s loaded with new starters everywhere, consistency and sustained excellence is going to be a problem in 2007.  New Mexico State nearly authored an upset of its own at rival New Mexico last Saturday, but faded in the fourth quarter.  While the Aggies are piling up the passing numbers as expected, they’ll need QB Chase Holbrook to cut down on his picks for the team to be successful this fall.  New Mexico State travels to Auburn next week, making a win this week that much more critical to the program’s big picture.
Why UTEP might win: The Miners entered this season committed to more balance on offense, especially with a new starter under center.  So far, they’ve been up to the challenge, which is going to cause problems for a suspect Aggie D.  Marcus Thomas, Terrell Jackson, and Donald Buckram form a solid trio of backs for UTEP, and when part-time QB Lorne Sam leaves the pocket, New Mexico State won’t have the athletes to catch him.  The Miners ran for 215 yards against Texas Tech last week, a trend that’ll continue, if for nothing else to keep Holbrook & Co. on the sidelines.
Why New Mexico State might win: In its first test this season against a pass-happy offense, the young UTEP defense failed, allowing 484 yards passing to Graham Harrell and Texas Tech.  What’s worse is the fact that the Miners’ rebuilt front seven has produced just one sack despite facing more than 100 passes this season.  Holbrook will have all day to survey the UTEP defense, and throw strikes to his favorite receivers, Chris Williams and Derek Dubois.  If the Miners get roped into a track meet, their passing game isn’t quite ready to keep up.
Who to watch: While it doesn’t happen that often, when New Mexico State decides to run the ball, it’s having a lot of success this month.  Credit for that goes to sophomore Tonny Glynn, who’s averaging more than ten yards on his 16 carries.  As a change-of-pace, UTEP must now pay attention to the occasional inside hand-off that Glynn can take for big chunks of real estate.
What will happen: In one of the more entertaining games this weekend that no one outside the region will watch, the Aggies and Miners will trade punches for four quarters.  Unlike last weekend, Holbrook will protect the ball in the final frame, leading New Mexico State to an emotional victory.
CFN Prediction: New Mexico State 34 … UTEP 31 ... Line: New Mexico State -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2

 

WAC Week Three Fearless Predictions, Part 2
 


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