WAC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 29

Previews and Predictions for the Week 5 WAC Games.

WAC  
Boise State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Idaho | Louisiana Tech
Nevada | New Mexico St | San Jose State | Utah State

WAC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 
 Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 28-2 ... ATS: 14-7-1

WAC Week Five Fearless Predictions, Part 2

WAC Game of the Week

WAC Thursday, September 27

Southern Miss (2-1) at Boise State (2-1)  7:30 PM ESPN
Why to watch: One month ago, this game looked as if it might have BCS bowl ramifications at stake.  After Southern Miss lost to Tennessee and Boise State got dumped by Washington on Sept. 8, however, it was downgraded to just a really interesting match up between two of the nation’s premier mid-majors.  The Golden Eagles defeated East Carolina in Greenville two weeks ago, solidifying their position as the favorite to the Eastern Division of Conference USA.  For Boise State, this will be its final tune-up before diving into the WAC portion of the schedule.  Since 1998, the Broncos are 53-2 at home, including a perfect mark versus non-BCS programs, a streak the Eagles believe they can end.  In Boise State’s Ian Johnson and Southern Miss’ Damion Fletcher, this nationally televised game will spotlight two of the game’s best backs that not enough people get to watch.
Why Southern Miss might win: The Golden Eagles want to put this game in the hands of QB Taylor Tharp, which it can do by slowing down Johnson with an outstanding front seven.  LB Gerald McRath and DE Robert Henderson are all-star candidates that have helped hold two of three opponents below 100 yards on the ground this season.  Southern Miss is physical, quick to the ball, and rarely misses tackles.  Its quarterback, Jeremy Young, is playing well again after being saddled with turf toe in 2006, and gives the Eagles a much-needed element of balance that’ll Boise from stacking the line to stop Fletcher and Tory Harrison.
Why Boise State might win: When the Eagles run with success, they almost always win.  They won’t have much success running the ball on Thursday night.  The Broncos have been stout against the run in 2007, allowing less than three yards a carry, and have generally been outstanding on the defensive side of the ball.  The opposition is completing less than 50% of its passes this year, and scoring just 15 points a game on an underrated and fundamentally sound unit.  Southern Miss has shown cracks in pass defense the last two games that Tharp will be able to exploit with mid-range passes.
Who to watch: It’s not often that the best player on the field is an offensive lineman, but Boise State LT Ryan Clady is a unique athlete and certain high draft choice in either 2008 or 2009.  At 6-6 and 315 pounds, he moves like a tight end, and will be responsible for keeping Henderson out of the Bronco backfield and creating space for Johnson to run.
What will happen: Although these two programs mirror each other in many ways, Boise State just doesn’t lose very often at Bronco Stadium.  It’ll get another strong effort from the generic defense and Johnson’s first touchdown since the opener to eliminate Southern Miss from contention in the race to be this year’s top non-BCS league program.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 28 … Southern Miss 20 ... Line: Boise State -10 
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 3  

WAC Saturday, September 29

Utah State (0-4) at Utah (1-3)  3:00 PM
Why to Watch: Throw out the record books when these two rivals meet. Fine, so it’s not Auburn – Alabama, but it’s hard fought, and considering the lousy starts to the season for both teams, each is desperately looking for the win. The Utes consider themselves more refined than their Aggie brethren, and their Mountain West pedigree is superior to that of USU’s WAC affiliation. Add in that the teams are a combined 1-7 and starving for a victory, and the two teams will come in very, very hungry.
Why Utah State Might Win: The Utah run defense has been non-existent for long stretches, and now the Aggies have a rushing threat in redshirt freshman Derrvin Speight, who emerged last week in the loss to San Jose State after playing a minor role the first three weeks. He should provide a spark to possibly open thing up for QB Leon Jackson, who’s been accurate, but not all that effective early on. On the other side of the ball, the State defense should get a break if the Ute offense stays on its inconsistent downswing.
Why Utah Might Win: The Utes are expecting a big boost from the full-time return of QB Brian Johnson, who separated his shoulder in the opener against Oregon State and didn’t return until the second half of last week’s loss to UNLV. The Utes have the ability to be explosive on offense, as their 44-6 win over UCLA proved, and now it should be more consistent. Utah State isn’t scoring much, so if Johnson can lead the way to two early touchdowns, it’s probably over.
Who to Watch: The Utah medical staff wanted Johnson to get another full week off, but once the Utes fell behind UNLV, coach Kyle Whittingham decided to return his main man to the lineup. Whittingham said Johnson was “80 percent” last week and expects him to be at 90 this week. The hope is to get up early, get Johnson out, and get Tommy Grady back in. There might not be a sense of desperation to get points early, but no one on the Utes would complain if this got ugly right off the bat.
What Will Happen: As long as the Aggie return game is limited, the Utes should win without breathing hard.
CFN Prediction: Utah 37 … Utah State 14 ... Line: Utah -20 
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 1.5

UC Davis (2-2) at San Jose State (1-3)  4:00 PM
Why to Watch: There should be some fireworks in this one, as the Spartans go for their second win in a row against UC Davis and its high-octane passing offense. After struggling mightily against BCS conference foes in their first three games, the Spartans opened WAC play with a win over Utah State that finally got the offense rolling. Putting up big yards hasn’t been a problem for Davis, but hanging on to the ball has.
Why UC-Davis Might Win: The Aggies have the fifth most potent passing attack in the I-AA ranks, triggered by Tim Plough, who has completed 66% of his passes and already thrown for 1,136 yards. His two favorite targets are Brandon Rice and Joe Trombetta, each of whom has caught 25 passes. You get more than sticky hands with Trombetta, a freshman running back who is averaging 112.3 yards per game on the ground and has scored seven touchdowns. Last week against Northeastern, he gained 104 yards and scored twice. He also caught six balls with a score. The Spartans are struggling to consistently score, and could have problems if this gets into a shootout.
Why San Jose State Might Win: For a while, it looked like the Spartans had no chance of repeating their post-season success from last year (New Mexico Bowl champs), or even reaching a bowl. But against Utah State, the offense awoke and put up 23 points with 426 passing yards. That was Utah State, but UC Davis doesn’t exactly have a rock of a defense, either. Although the Spartans struggled on both sides of the ball during the first three weeks of the year, that was due more to their opposition than anything else. Basically, the team, record-wise, is where it’s supposed to be.
Who to Watch: SJSU senior Jacob French rushed for three yards on five carries in the first three games. Against USU, he gained 74 yards on 15 carries to finally provide some semblance of a running game. The transfer from Foothill College played sparingly last year but was a JC all-America with good speed and enough power to break tackles. He needs to keep taking the heat off Tafralis and provide a little bit of balance.
What Will Happen: The Spartans will continue their winning ways with a diverse offense that continues its awakening. The defense will start to look like the Spartan defense of last year again.
CFN Prediction San Jose State 28 … UC Davis 13 ... Line: No Line 
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 1

UNLV (2-2) at Nevada (1-2)  4:05 PM
Why to Watch: It may not get the same ink as Michigan-Ohio State and Alabama-Auburn, but this is an intense in-state rivalry that gets both sides jacked up. This year, things appear to have changed a bit after UNLV’s surprising 27-0 whitewash of a Utah team that thumped UCLA the week before. Are the Rebels for real, or was last week a letdown by the Utes? The Wolf Pack, meanwhile, is a high-scoring outfit that’s having problems giving up yards. With Fresno State and Boise State coming up in the next two weeks, the Pack can’t afford to lose confidence now.
Why UNLV Might Win: After playing Wisconsin tough, and getting hammered by Hawaii, the Rebels weren’t expected to turn back the Utes so convincingly – if at all. But UNLV got its offense going behind RB Frank Summers, and used Beau Bell and a rugged D that featured an interception by Quinton Pointer to knock off the Utes. UNLV’s challenge is to get the passing and rushing components of the attack going well at the same time, but it’ll be able to crank out rushing yards from the start against a run defense that’s not stopping anyone. The Pack is second-to-last in the nation in run defense, with the line having particular problems.
Why Nevada Might Win: The Wolf Pack may not have any one standout at the moment, but the offense is moving the ball, averaging 436 yards per game. UNLV’s defense is active, but can be thrown on. QB Nick Graziano has thrown for 682 yards and seven touchdowns and can be dangerous when accurate, and when he gets into a groove. If he’s effective, he could bomb the Pack to the win.
Who to Watch: When Frank “The Tank” Summers enrolled at UNLV last January from his All-America JUCO days, he was viewed as the answer to the Rebels’ ground problems, but he gained just 113 yards on 30 carries in the first three games. Last week he lived up to his promise, piling up 190 yards on the ground and scoring twice, and catching a pass for a 29-yard touchdown. The 5-10, 240-pounder came in expected to be a workhorse, and with QB Travis Dixon still trying to figure out what he’s doing, he’ll get even more work.
What Will Happen: UNLV is on the right track after last week’s game and will take advantage of Nevada’s generous defense, but it isn’t going to come up with two consistent games in a row defensively.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 23 … UNLV 17 ... Line: Nevada -3.5 
Must See Rating: (5 Ken Burns' The War - 1 The Big Bang Theory) ... 2

WAC Week Five Fearless Predictions, Part 2