WAC Fearless Predictions, Oct. 6

Previews and Predictions for the Week 6 WAC Games.

WAC  
Boise State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Idaho | Louisiana Tech
Nevada | New Mexico St | San Jose State | Utah State

WAC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 28-2 ... ATS: 14-7-1

WAC Week Five Fearless Predictions, Part 2

WAC Game of the Week

Fresno State (2-2) at Nevada (2-2)  4 p.m.
Why to Watch: Both teams head into this one with a little momentum. Fresno State won its WAC opener last week by stifling Louisiana Tech, while Nevada won its rivalry game with UNLV for the third straight year. The Bulldogs begin a three-game road trip with the trip to Reno, while the Wolf Pack is hoping to continue its perfect record (2-0) against FSU at home under Chris Ault.
Why Fresno State Might Win: Although the Bulldogs have been known for their offense over the years during the Pat Hill era, they got it done last week on the defensive side of the ball and have been stout in that area this season. That’s a good thing, because Nevada has a balanced attack with a lot of options both running and passing the ball. FSU has been excellent against the pass this year and will look to pressure Pack QB Nick Graziano from the outside. When they get the ball, the Bulldogs look to run it, as they did successfully against Tech last week, and should have success against one of the nation’s worst collection of run-stoppers.
Why Nevada Might Win: The Wolf Pack showed excellent resiliency last week against UNLV, pushing across the winning touchdown after being tied late in the game. Nevada isn’t going to win too many tight games, because it likes to pass and in Graziano (20-of-38, 330 yards, 3 TDs vs. UNLV) it has a good weapon who can spread the ball around to a collection of targets. The Wolfpack defense is good against the pass, which could lead to some turnovers, particularly if FSU quarterback Tom Brandstater struggles, as he did last week.
Who to Watch: His name may not make you think of the most graceful player, but senior defensive end Tyler Clutts had four sacks last week, the first time any Fresno State player has registered that many QB traps in five years. Clutts is now sixth on the all-time school sack list with 20. The three-year starter is a Fresno local product and has been solid at getting into the backfield during his time at the school.
What Will Happen: The Bulldogs will succeed at slowing things down for a while, but their lack of offensive balance will hurt them in the end.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 21 … Fresno State 17... Line: Nevada -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 2.5

WAC Saturday, Oct. 6

Utah State (0-5) at Hawaii (5-0)   11:05 p.m.
Why to Watch: A chance to see Colt Brennan light it up against one of the nation’s shakier pass defenses? Better get out the calculators, folks, because this one could test the boundaries of mental math after missing the Charleston Southern game two weeks ago and throwing five picks in last week’s win over Idaho. The Warriors are back home after a trip to the mainland, so you can bet the points will be coming fast and furious against a Utah State team on an 11-game losing streak and can’t generate any pressure from the defensive front.
Why Utah State Might Win: Even though Brennan is a statistical monster, he’s still playing on a somewhat tender ankle and wasn’t quite right against the Vandals. So, there is the possibility the Aggies might be able to get some short fields against the Warriors. When they do, look for QB Leon Jackson III to attack through the air and the ground. In the loss to Utah last week, he threw for 139 yards and rushed for 60 more. He has to provide a little bit of balance, sort of like Louisiana Tech was able to do, to keep pace.
Why Hawaii Might Win: When the Warriors play in Honolulu so far, they’ve put up at least 60 points, and they do it – of course – through the air. Brennan may have thrown five picks against the Vandals, but that was an aberration, and the defense helped him out by forcing six turnovers. The D, rated 31^st in the nation, should have few problems with the punchless Aggie offense that can’t find anything that’s consistently working. Hawaii is finding its way into opposing backfields with regularity, piling up sacks and tackles for loss. The last thing Jackson needs is to be under pressure.
Who to Watch: Granted, on any given night, any one of five Hawaii receivers can go nuts, but it’s likely Davone Bess is close to the head of the list of suspects. Last week, the junior had a huge game, catching 12 passes for 162 yards and scoring once. He’s not going to take it deep too often, usually working underneath as Brennan’s go-to target, but he’s due against the Aggies, after catching just three passes in last year’s game, with one touchdown. Two years ago, he caught five passes for 110 yards and two scores in a 50-23 win.
What Will Happen: The Warriors have just too much on both sides of the ball for the Aggies and should score early and often in front of the home crowd.
CFN Prediction: Hawaii 51 … Utah State 17 ... Line: Hawaii -39
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 2

Louisiana Tech (1-3) at Ole Miss (1-4)  2:00 PM ET 
Why to Watch: Both teams are in desperate need of a win, with Ole Miss coming in on a four-game losing streak, and Louisiana Tech dropping three in a row. The Rebels have played well at times, pushing Florida in a 30-24 loss, and horrible at others, getting ripped open by Georgia 45-17, but this game starts a three-game homestand with Alabama and Arkansas coming to Oxford in the next two weeks. If there's going to be any sort of a run at a decent season, it has to start now. For Tech, this marks the first SEC game under head man Derek Dooley, son of legendary Georgia head coach Vince Dooley. 0-2 in WAC play, the Bulldogs could use a confidence boost before having to deal with New Mexico State and Boise State.
Why Louisiana Tech Might Win: Everyone's getting fat running the ball on the Rebel defense. The front line is getting penetration into the backfield and making several nice plays behind the line, but it's also allowing way too many runners to get into the secondary. Georgia's Thomas Brown and Knowshon Moreno had a blast last week, combining for 270 yards and four touchdowns. Ole Miss has allowed 11 rushing scores over the last three weeks, and Tech, who's struggled recently to get the ground game working, should be able to add to the total.
Why Ole Miss Might Win: You can't win if you can't score, and while Ole Miss isn't exactly lighting things up, Tech has been positively stagnant after scoring 44 in a loss to Hawaii. Nothing seemed to work against Fresno State, despite outgaining the Bulldogs, and there was no hope against Cal. The offense averages a mere 307 yards per game, and it has yet to face an elite-level defense.
Who to Watch: Considering each team's offensive struggles, little things like the punting game could make all the difference. That's where Tech has a huge advantage, with punter Chris Keagle averaging 43.7 yards per kick. Ole Miss simply can't go on too many long drives and win. Helping the Tech field position battle is punt returner Philip Beck, who's averaging 19.38 yards per return, and Weldon Brown, who's averaging a whopping 31.5 yards per kickoff return.
What Will Happen: Welcome to the BenJarvus Green-Ellis show. Ole Miss will run him, run him and run him some more, eating up plenty of clock on the way to a grinding win.
CFN Prediction: Ole Miss 27 ... Louisiana Tech 13 ... Line: Ole Miss -13
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 2

Idaho (1-4) at San Jose State (2-3)   4:00 p.m.
Why to Watch: In 1958, San Jose State started the season 0-3 but eventually evened its mark at 3-3 with a win over Idaho. The Spartans try to repeat history Saturday against the Vandals and continue their streak of good fortune. Idaho, meanwhile, tries to rebound from a what-if loss to Hawaii that could have been different had the Vandals not turned the ball over five times. This is a biggie for SJSU, which welcomes Hawaii to town next week and then has to go on the road to face Fresno State and Boise State.
Why Idaho Might Win: The Vandals have a productive passing attack, led by QB Nathan Enderle, who will be looking to shrug off last week’s five-interception performance against Hawaii. If he has trouble getting started, he can rely on running back Deonte Jackson, provided his ankle is all right. Jackson had just seven carries against the Warriors, ending his streak of three straight 100-yard efforts. With Enderle and Jackson contributing at top efficiency, Idaho should be able to make progress against a leaky SJSU defense that has allowed 30 points a game. And since the Spartans don’t run it well at all, Idaho should be able to load up against the pass.
Why San Jose State Might Win: Even if the Vandals do try to shut down the Spartan air attack, they will likely struggle, since they haven’t had much success shutting people down in that area all year. SJSU quarterback Adam Tafralis was sharp in the win over Cal-Davis last week and has solidified his hold on the starting QB job, after the Spartans were all but holding tryouts earlier. San Jose State will also look to win the turnover battle, as it has all year and will try to keep Idaho’s misfortune going in that department.
Who to Watch: Linebacker Demetrius Jones was expected to be a stalwart on the San Jose defense, thanks to the 78 tackles he accumulated last year, and he hasn’t disappointed. Jones already has 52 stops this year, including 12 last week against Cal-Davis. After redshirting in ’05 after playing sparingly his first two years, Jones became a dangerous second-line force in 2006 and has become even more productive this season.
What Will Happen: The Spartans thrill their homecoming crowd by forcing and converting on turnovers and evening their record.
CFN Prediction: San Jose State 28 … Idaho 17... Line: San Jose State -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 1.5

WAC Sunday, Oct. 7

New Mexico State (3-2) at Boise State (3-1)  8:00 PM ESPN
Why to Watch: If you prefer the college version of the football game to the professional style, then tune in Sunday night for the only game on campus, and one that could be far more entertaining than anything the NFLers might come up with. The schools each open their WAC campaigns in what some would consider a battle of high-octane offenses – if the Broncos weren’t so good on the other side lately. Hal Mumme’s Aggies are going to throw it again and again, while BSU counters with its attack that has been far more balanced, ever since Ian Johnson started piling up the yards again after a relatively slow start. Expect lots of points, lots of offense, and lots of big plays.
Why New Mexico State Might Win: When the Aggie offensive machine gets moving, it’s next to impossible to slow down. QB Chase Holbrook pilots the nation’s seventh-best passing attack and uses the tried-and-true “basketball on grass” approach that Mumme has honed over the years to keep pressing for a full sixty minutes. Even if BSU gets up early, it’ll have to keep its foot on the gas. But NMSU isn’t completely one-dimensional, thanks to sophomore Tonny Glynn, who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry to provide enough of a balance to force the Bronco linebackers to pay attention. New Mexico State is improved defensively this year, particularly against the run, and could give Johnson some trouble.
Why Boise State Might Win: The Aggies can roll it up, all right, but the Broncos have firepower, too. Johnson rushed for 111 yards and caught 80 yards of passes in last week’s win over Southern Mississippi. Meanwhile, senior QB Taylor Tharp is getting more comfortable in his role, as evidenced by his career-high 307 passing yards last week. But what has BSU going this year is the defense, which is allowing just 15.3 points per game. Playing good assignment football, everyone is chipping in with an effort that’s gone relatively unnoticed. Throw in the power of the Smurf Turf and an “orange-and-blue out” crowd on national TV, and this is Boise State in its element.
Who to Watch: If Chris Williams were just catching passes for the Aggies, he’d be pretty dangerous. The diminutive junior has 38 receptions this year and ranks eighth in the nation with 108.8 yards per game catching the ball, but he proved last week against Arkansas-Pine Bluff that he can do more, returning three punts for 80 yards in the 20-17 win. He’s the number one target the Broncos have to pay attention to.
What Will Happen: The Broncos have too much on both sides for NMSU, which will try to get the game going quickly but will struggle against the BSU defense and will be outscored.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 44 … New Mexico State 17... Line: Boise State -22.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ... 2.5