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WAC Fearless Predictions, Oct. 20

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Oct 18, 2007

Previews and Predictions for the Week 8 WAC Games.


WAC  
Boise State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Idaho | Louisiana Tech
Nevada | New Mexico St | San Jose State | Utah State


WAC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1Sept. 8 | Sept. 15Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
 Oct. 6Oct. 13 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3Nov. 10 | Nov. 17Nov. 24Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 35-4 ... ATS: 22-8-1

WAC Game of the Week

San Jose State at Fresno State   5:00 p.m.
Why to Watch: The WAC race may seem to be all about Hawaii and Boise State, but two teams lurking on the outside hoping to enter the derby hook up in Fresno. The Bulldogs have won three straight and appear to have recaptured some of the mojo they had before their crushing loss to USC two seasons ago sent them on a major slide. This is the beginning of three in a row at home for FSU, which has its offense cranked up once again, albeit more on the ground than it did during its previous heyday. SJSU, meanwhile, hopes to stay focused after a crushing near-miss overtime loss to Hawaii last week, in which it blew a late, two-touchdown lead.
Why San Jose State Might Win:  The sturdy throwing arm of Adam Tafralis has the Spartan attack cooking. Scoring 35 last week against the Warriors was impressive, especially since Hawaii came into the game with one of the nation’s statistically best defenses. Tafralis has thrown for 300 or more yards in four consecutive games to pick up the slack for the woeful, banged up ground game. Of course, when you’re going up against the country’s 107th best rush defense, one which surrendered 279 yards on the ground to Idaho the previous Saturday, there’s reason to hope for a renaissance.
Why Fresno State Might Win: If you’re looking for another willing participant for a shootout, the Bulldogs are more than ready to volunteer averaging 32.2 points per game. While the Spartans do it through the air, FSU favors the ground attack. Last week, freshman Ryan Mathews continued his strong season by rushing for 67 yards and two scores against the Vandals, while Lonyae Miller had 108 yards and two touchdowns. QB Tom Brandstater won’t overwhelm anybody, but he did complete 17-of-22 for 178 and kept plenty of drives alive last week. If he’s merely average, the offense hums.
Who to Watch: Going into the season, Kevin Jurovich had a total of one reception, a reflection of his status as a safety for the previous two seasons. But Dick Tomey moved him to receiver, and the most has paid off with 44 catches and five touchdowns as he’s grown into a deep threat. The go-to target for Tafralis over the last few weeks, the 6-0, 183-pound junior is tough and fast with the potential to do even more.
What Will Happen: San Jose State has firepower, but the Bulldogs are on their way back. They use the run to control the clock and keep their streak alive.
CFN Prediction
: Fresno State 27 … San Jose State 21 ... Line: Fresno State -12.5
Must See Rating: (5
Keeping Up with the Kardashians - 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 2.5

WAC Saturday, Oct. 20

Nevada at Utah State  3:05 p.m.           
Why to Watch: After what happened last week when the Wolf Pack played Boise State, why wouldn’t anybody tune in to catch the Nevada act whenever possible? The Pack and Broncos piled up 136 points and nearly 1,300 yards of total offense in a 69-67 four-OT BSU classic. While there might not be similar fireworks Saturday when the Aggies hook up with Nevada, that was the highest scoring game of the modern era, but are you willing to take the chance, especially with the way the Nevada offense is crackling?
Why Nevada Might Win: Yes, Nevada lost to Boise State, but it had 639 total yards and was basically unstoppable. Perhaps most impressive was that the Wolf Pack didn’t turn it over once. QB Colin Kaepernick was outstanding in his first start after regular Nick Graziano went down for the season a week earlier with a freak foot injury. Kaepernick rushed for 177 yards and two scores and threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns looking like a WAC version of Vince Young. He’ll try to continue his dual threat mastery while still keeping halfback Luke Lippincott, who rushed for 187 yards and four scores against BSU, well fed. Since USU is 98th in total defense, expect plenty of fireworks from the Wolf Pack, which shouldn’t have to worry about anything like what it saw last week, since the Aggies are 117th nationally in total offense.
Why Utah State Might Win
: If the Aggies are to get their first win of the season, they will have to rely heavily on their special teams, which are clearly their top area of production. The main man in that department is Kevin Robinson, who ranks fourth in the country in punt returns and 11th in kick returns. It’s important for Robinson to help set up Utah State with short fields, the better to help their offense and also set up Peter Caldwell, who has made 10-of-12 field goal attempts, with some opportunities.
Who to Watch: Okay, so it didn’t seem like too many tackles were made by anybody in that track meet against Boise State last week, but Nevada junior linebacker Joshua Mauga was busy, despite the free-for-all offensive climate. Mauga registered 12 stops, bringing his total to 70 on the year and keeping himself among the nation’s top 10 in tackles. Mauga moved back to the inside last year after spending his freshman season as an OLB and is an interior stalwart. It makes sense that he can wrap people up and bring them down, since he was a top wrestler in high school. Now on a pace to make 140 stops this year, Mauga is looking good in terms of his takedowns.
What Will Happen: Utah State will hang for a while, and there’s a chance that Kaepernick might struggle in his second start, but Nevada has way too much firepower.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 38 … Utah State 13 ... Line: Nevada -7.5
Must See Rating: (5
Keeping Up with the Kardashians - 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 1.5


Boise State at Louisiana Tech   7:00 p.m
Why to Watch: The Broncos may have had their winning streak snapped earlier in the year by Washington, but since then they have it cranking highlighted by last week’s 69-67 four-overtime win over Nevada. That production figures to continue Saturday, but the Broncos have to do it in the first game of a two-week road trip that should determine whether they’ll head into their late-November showdown with Hawaii undefeated. Nothing is a given, but following the visits to LTU and Fresno State, BSU plays three teams with a combined 4-16 record.
Why Boise State Might Win: Last week’s win produced 627 total yards and just two turnovers. Although the Broncos threw for more yards than they ran for, they had 12 more plays on the ground showing off tremendous balance. Louisiana Tech has the nation’s 30th ranked rushing defense and will load up on Ian Johnson, who won’t gain 205 yards as he did last week, but the way things are going, that should mean Taylor Tharp should continue his hot streak after throwing for 320 yards and four scores against Nevada. And though Boise State wasn’t exactly the ’85 Bears defensively versus the Wolf Pack, it’s facing the nation’s 106th-ranked offense.
Why Louisiana Tech Might Win: If the Bulldogs are to have a shot, it comes down on QB Zac Champion, who had his best game of the season last week against New Mexico State. Champion rushed for 54 yards and threw for 215 and two scores (on 22-of-35 passing) to lead the way. If he has another top-shelf contest, LTU could be in the game. While the defense stops the run well, its secondary has also been relatively strong. The main factor is the predatory tandem of Tony Moss and Weldon Brown, with four interceptions each, leading to a plus-7 turnover margin. Another D-back, Antonio Backer, has 65 tackles on the season along with five tackle for loss.
Who to Watch: Some Bronco fans worried after Jared Zabransky left the fold last year, following a brilliant career. But Tharp has stepped up quite well and seems to be getting more comfortable each game. Last week’s performance was his best in terms of yards, and Tharp kept things rolling well, even as Nevada kept the pressure on through the overtime periods. The senior has thrown eight TD passes in his last two games and has made the most of his opportunity to play, after three years of waiting.
What Will Happen: There just isn’t any way Louisiana Tech can keep up. Boise State is on a roll and should continue.
CFN Prediction
: Boise State 38 … Louisiana Tech 14... Line: Boise State -16.5
 Must See Rating: (5
Keeping Up with the Kardashians - 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 2.5

Idaho at New Mexico State, 8 p.m.
Why to Watch
: In a league that’s suffered an inordinate amount of quarterback injuries, here’s a matchup of two such victims. Though there is a chance New Mexico State’s Chase Holbrook (ribs) could play, the Aggies and Vandals are likely to rely on their backups, NMSU’s J.J. McDermott and Idaho’s Brian Nooy. Both teams are also looking for their first WAC wins of the year while trying to snap losing streaks, although the Aggies’ two-game slide is more modest than Idaho’s five-gamer.
Why Idaho Might Win: The Vandals piled up 279 yards on the ground last week and will look to do the same thing against an Aggie defense that’s better than past year, but can still be run on. Deonte Jackson is averaging 112.4 yards per game, coming off a 108-yard, one touchdown day on just 11 carries last week. With Nathan Enderle (hand surgery) out for at least a couple more games, Brian Nooy must take a step up. He threw two touchdown passes last week against Fresno State and needs only to become a little more efficient to give the Vandals a balanced attack.
Why New Mexico State Might Win: The 3-4 Aggies have won all of their games this season in Las Cruses. Second, NMSU is fourth in the league against the run and should be able to tee off on Jackson. Nooy isn’t enough of a passing threat to worry about. If Holbrook is back, expect the Aggie attack to soar against a Vandal defense that struggles with the bombers, the dinkers and dunkers, and everything in between. But McDermott looked good last week in his first start, throwing for 319 yards and two scores without an interception.
Who to Watch: No matter who carries or catches the ball for the Aggies, expect to see David Vobora in on the play. The senior linebacker was seventh in the nation in tackles last year (134) and is ninth this season, with 80. He has been especially effective the past two games, piling up 15 stops against Fresno State and 18 the week before, versus San Jose State. The 6-1, 214-pounder is quick enough to hang with slot receivers in coverage and tough enough to blow up the run.
What Will Happen: It doesn’t matter who plays QB for the Aggies, because NMSU will pile up the yards and points against the generous Idaho D, while Nooy will struggle some with consistency.
CFN Prediction: New Mexico State 30 … Idaho 17 ... Line: New Mexico State -10
Must See Rating: (5
Keeping Up with the Kardashians - 1 Ellen's dog plea) ... 1.5

 

 

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