Friday Football - WAC Fearless Predictions

Previews and Predictions for the Week 9 WAC Games.

WAC  
Boise State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Idaho | Louisiana Tech
Nevada | New Mexico St | San Jose State | Utah State

WAC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
 Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 39-4 ... ATS: 24-10-1

WAC Game of the Week

WAC Friday, Oct. 26

Boise State (6-1) at Fresno State (5-2)   9:00 p.m.  ESPN2
Why to Watch: Hawaii may be everybody’s favorite to win the WAC, but each of these schools is unbeaten and hardly ready to concede anything to the Warriors. A Fresno win could pave the way for another battle of the unbeatens in two weeks in Honolulu, while BSU is trying to make it six in a row and stay on target for a Thanksgiving weekend showdown with Hawaii. The last time these two played in Fresno, the Bulldogs snapped Boise’s 31-game WAC winning streak. The Broncos are 13-0 in league play since then and make an inviting target for resurgent FSU, which has now won four straight and is trying to return to its once-dominant ways.
Why Boise State Might Win: Even though Ian Johnson (bruised kidney) didn’t play last week in the 45-31 win over Louisiana Tech, the BSU offense still crackled, thanks to freshman Jeremy Avery and QB Taylor Tharp, who threw five touchdown passes. Johnson isn’t expected to play this week, either, but don’t look for the Broncos to sputter, especially since they’re facing the nation’s 65th-best defense, and one which is particularly susceptible to the run. Expect Tharp to hook up often with Jeremy Childs, who has 19 catches in his last two games and three straight 100-yard efforts. Fresno has struggled throwing the ball this year, and BSU’s 16th-rated pass defense isn’t likely to let the Bulldog air show get healthy.
Why Fresno State Might Win: The Bulldogs have been gaining confidence and are playing quite well offensively this year. QB Tom Brandstater hasn’t been filling the air with footballs, but he has been efficient, as his 60.2% completion rate and 7.1 yards/attempt prove. The big star is freshman running back Ryan Mathews, who has keyed a ground attack that averages 204.4 yards a game and has been more productive the past two weeks. Fresno State is ranked 25th in the nation against the pass, so Tharp will have to work for his yards. And when the Broncos kick off, they had better be aware of A.J. Jefferson, who leads the nation in returns.
Who to Watch: With Johnson on the mend, the ground onus falls on Avery, who proved quite capable last week. The redshirt freshman rushed for 110 yards and a score, his second 100-yard plus game of the year (105, Weber State). Avery averaged 165.5 yards per game as a senior at Bellflower (CA) HS and was a track standout. He may not be huge (5-9, 173), but he is fast and able to get through holes quickly.
What Will Happen: Fresno State is on the way back, but it isn’t all the way there yet, not without a reliable run defense and big-time passing game. The Bulldogs play ‘em tough but fade in the end.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 34 ... Fresno State 30 .. Line: Boise State -3
Must See Rating: (5 America's Most Smartest Model - 1 Marie Osmond on DTWS) ... 3

WAC Saturday, Oct. 27

Louisiana Tech (2-5) at Utah State (0-7)   3:00 p.m.GamePlan
Why to Watch: The big question is whether the Aggies can break their 13-game losing skein, which almost came to an end last week in an exciting, 31-28 loss to Nevada. With Fresno State and Boise State looming over the next couple weeks on the USU schedule, Louisiana Tech represents the best chance to snap out of it for a while. As for the Bulldogs, they’re trying to build a little momentum before their game with LSU on Nov. 10. After the winless Aggies, they take on Idaho, another floundering WAC team.
Why Louisiana Tech Might Win: The Bulldogs may have lost to Boise State last week, but their offense came alive, producing 31 points. QB Zac Champion threw for 255 yards and a score, while the ground game produced three touchdowns, two by Patrick Jackson and another by Daniel Porter. Against a Utah State team that ranks 100th in total defense, LTU will no doubt be expecting another productive afternoon. The Tech defense is stout against the run and should dominate the weak Aggie ground attack, while Tony Moss and Antonio Baker key a strong secondary.
Why Utah State Might Win: It all comes down to Leon Jackson. He passes. He runs. He punts. When he has it all going on, the Aggies can be dangerous. The question is whether he’ll get some help from running back Derrvin Speight, who has had his moments, and all-purpose man Kevin Robinson, who catches, runs and returns well. Utah State will also look to take advantage of Champion’s recent inaccuracy, which led to three interceptions last week.
Who to Watch: It wasn’t a complete surprise when Porter rushed for 131 yards last week against the Broncos, because he had gained 464 and averaged 5.7 yards a carry as a freshman. But Porter’s output was somewhat shocking, since he hadn’t gained more than 68 yards in any game this year and had played something of a second fiddle to Jackson. If he can give the Bulldogs a strong second ground option, LTU will be much more dangerous.
What Will Happen: Utah State came close last week but doesn’t have enough to stop the Bulldogs.
CFN Prediction: Louisiana Tech 30 ... Utah State 14 .. Line: Louisiana Tech -2.5
Must See Rating: (5 America's Most Smartest Model - 1 Marie Osmond on DTWS) ... 1.5

Idaho (1-7) at Nevada (3-4)   4:05 p.m. GamePlan
Why to Watch: Expect an interesting offensive game with plenty of rushing yards. Neither plays particularly stout defense, and each has a solid collection of talent on the offensive side of the ball, with a few good backs to get excited about. Nevada is trying to get its feet under it after losing QB Nick Graziano for the season, while the Vandals hope to snap an ugly, six-game losing skid.
Why Idaho Might Win: When you’re facing the nation’s 119th-rated ground defense, and you have a back who has five 100-yard games on the year in Deonte Jackson, you ought to be able to get some work done on the ground. That should allow the Vandals to score some points and should make it easier for the passing game, which is under the direction of two quarterbacks now, senior Brian Nooy and true freshman Quin Ashley. When the Wolf Pack runs the ball, and it does run it well, expect to see linebacker David Vobora, who is fifth in the nation in tackles, highly involved in trying to slow down Luke Lippincott and the Nevada backs.
Why Nevada Might Win: Lippincott rushed for 214 yards and a pair of touchdowns versus Utah State and leads the nation’s ninth-best ground attack, which piled up 302 yards on the ground last week. If that isn’t enough, then expect big things from Colin Kaepernick, who has been steady under center in relief of Graziano (nine TDs, one interception) and will no doubt love taking aim at a defense that gave up 404 yards through the air last Saturday. Don’t be surprised to see Marko Mitchell (21.0 yard average) on the end of some long throws.
Who to Watch: Here’s how bad it has gotten for the Vandals: Ashley, who is splitting time with Nooy in relief of Nathan Enderle (hand surgery), wasn’t even a true QB at Paris (TX) HS. He’s listed on the Vandal roster as a quarterback and defensive back and might even play some receiver before he ends his time in Moscow. Ashley was 8-of-15 for 92 yards and a score last week and figures to get every opportunity to develop some momentum this week, as the Vandals await Enderle’s return.
What Will Happen: The Vandals will be able to run it, but they can’t keep up with Nevada’s more balanced attack.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 31 ... Idaho 20 .. Line: Nevada -17
Must See Rating: (5 America's Most Smartest Model - 1 Marie Osmond on DTWS) ... 1.5

WAC Sunday, Oct. 28

New Mexico State (4-4) at Hawaii (7-0)  12:05 a.m.
Why to Watch: Kick back, relax, and enjoy the fireworks. Hawaii threw it 75 times in its last game, while the Aggies put it up 49 times in the win over Idaho last week, and that’s the norm. Get ready for a four-hour game and plenty of points in what promises to be one of the wildest shootouts of the year. Hawaii, of course, wants to continue its climb up the BCS standings, with the hope of gaining a big-time bowl berth, while the Aggies would love to spring an upset that puts them closer to bowl eligibility. This would easily be the biggest win over the Hal Mumme era at NMSU, while things get tougher for the Warriors after this week and need to get past this and move one.
Why New Mexico State Might Win: The marquee name in this race is Colt Brennan, of course, but don’t forget about Chase Holbrook, who was 36-of-49 for 404 yards (his third 400-plus effort of the year) and three touchdowns. He has mastered Mumme’s go-go system and has plenty of prime targets, most notably Chris Williams, at his disposal. And though Hawaii leads the nation in scoring, Brennan did throw four picks against San Jose State two weeks ago, which put the Warriors in a hole. With ten interceptions on the year, he is not infallible. NMSU is one of the few teams built to keep up with Hawaii.
Why Hawaii Might Win: Brennan may have tossed four interceptions, but he led the comeback against the Spartans and is never out of a game. He has four receivers with at least 40 receptions this year, making the Warriors practically impossible to stop when things get on a roll. And though the Aggies can pile up the passing yards, Hawaii is ranked 17th in the nation in pass efficiency defense, led by Myron Newberry (four interceptions). The Aggies haven’t always been on this year and has gone in the tank from time to time.
Who to Watch: If you’re looking for an X factor, look no further than Tonny Glynn, NMSU’s sophomore running back. Glynn isn’t exactly tearing it up on the ground, because the Aggies throw so much, but he had 88 yards on 11 carries last week and scored two touchdowns. For the year, Glynn has gained 390 yards and scored three times, while averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He hasn’t topped 100 yards yet but hit 92 against New Mexico. Glynn won’t be getting it 25 times a game, but he could keep Hawaii off balance.
What Will Happen: Set the over-under on passes at 95 and expect a big shootout that the Warriors win.
CFN Prediction: Hawaii 52 ... New Mexico State 27 .. Line: Hawaii -28
Must See Rating: (5 America's Most Smartest Model - 1 Marie Osmond on DTWS) ... 2.5