WAC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 24

Previews and Predictions for the Week 13 WAC Games.

WAC  
Boise State | Fresno State | Hawaii | Idaho | Louisiana Tech
Nevada | New Mexico St | San Jose State | Utah State

WAC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
 Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Dec. 1   

How are the picks so far? SU: 50-5 ... ATS: 34-12-1

WAC Game of the Week

WAC Friday, November 23rd

Boise State (10-1) at Hawaii (10-0)  9:00 PM ESPN
Why to Watch: This might not be Missouri vs. Kansas … it might actually turn out to be bigger. This is for the WAC title, yes, but also for a shot at a BCS bowl berth, especially since the powers-that-be in that universe recently had to loosen the requirements for those coveted five bowls, out of fear that the big leagues might not qualify enough schools naturally for inclusion. Even without that, it’s possible the Warriors would merit a spot, provided they beat the Broncos and then take care of Washington next weekend. The big question for Hawaii is whether QB Colt Brennan, who suffered a concussion two games ago and threw just two passes in last week’s win over Nevada, will be given clearance for full participation. If so, expect homestanding Hawaii to unleash its full attack on BSU, which will counter with great offensive balance and a surprisingly good defense. For all of you who expected a big island coronation back at the beginning of the season – especially when Boise State stumbled against U-Dub – don’t be fooled. The team is humming on all cylinders and playing as well as it did throughout last year. The Broncos have won nine straight with a balanced attack and a defense that’s coming through clutch time and again.
Why Boise State Might Win: Even though backup runners D.J. Harper and Jeremy Avery have been felled by ankle injuries (Harper is out, while Avery is questionable), the healthy return of Ian Johnson (bruised kidney) has kept the Bronco ground game going with one of the strongest rushing attacks the Warriors have faced all year. Johnson returned with two straight 100-yard games and offers the perfect counter to QB Taylor Tharp, who has been razor-sharp over the last few weeks. Since Hawaii surrendered 140 yards last week to Luke Lippincott of Nevada, expect big things from Johnson. Tharp, meanwhile, has moved steadily away from former starter Jared Zabransky’s shadow. The BSU defense doesn’t get nearly as much attention as its spread offense counterpart, but it is ranked 12^th nationally against the pass. BSU won’t stifle Brennan and the Warrior receivers, but it will be able to slow them down a bit.
Why Hawaii Might Win: Coach June Jones may have taken a chance last week by sitting Brennan all but a couple plays, but he knew how important it was to have his senior slinger as close to full strength as possible for this one. With Brennan, Hawaii puts enormous pressure on defenses all over the field. Without him, it scored just 28 points against a generous Nevada team and needs a late field goal to stay unbeaten. Hawaii isn’t going to fool anybody with the run, and why should it? When pressed, the BSU secondary has had problems. Hawaii isn’t all about offense, although that’s the biggest part of the Warrior personality. This year’s edition is ranked 32^nd nationally in total D and has allowed a respectable 23.5 ppg, not bad at all in the still-wacky WAC.
Who to Watch: Up until last week, freshman Austin Pettis was a reliable possession receiver, known more for his short work than any field-stretching power. But against Idaho, Pettis caught eight passes for 139 yards and scored three touchdowns. It was the third strong effort with 23 passes and scored five times during the stretch. For the year, Pettis has 35 catches as a new go-to option for Tharp, who threw for 282 yards and four scores last week.
What Will Happen: The Broncos’ overall offensive balance proves too much for the Warriors, who can’t stop BSU and are unable to keep up against a defense, which keeps them under control.
CFN Prediction: Boise State 34 … Hawaii 28 ... Line: Hawaii -4
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...4.5

WAC Saturday, November 24th

Utah State (1-10) at Idaho (1-10)   3:30 p.m
Why to Watch: After brutal years for each, closing out with a win would mean the world. Idaho is still building under Robb Akey, and needs the win as something to build off of this off-season, while Utah State might be undergoing a change unless Brent Guy can pull off a second straight win. The Aggies come in on a bright note after beating New Mexico State last week for its first win of the year. Idaho, meanwhile, has lost nine in a row and can’t lose at home to one of the nation’s worst teams. Each team needs to prove that things have improved over the course of the season.
Why Utah State Might Win: The Aggie ground attack, which had been relatively moribund all year, showed up last week in relatively fine fashion. Not that USU is going to pile up 400 yards a game rushing, but Utah State comes in with a little hope that it might be a balanced attack. QB Leon Jackson has gone four straight games without an interception and had two touchdown passes last week against NMSU. Although the Aggies have given up a lot of points this year, they surrendered just 17 last week against a potent New Mexico State team and face a Vandal team that has struggled to score this year.
Why Idaho Might Win: The Vandals will rely heavily on Deonte Jackson, who rushed for 84 yards last week against Boise State and has 1,100 on the year. Expect Idaho to go hard at Utah State’s 90^th-rated rush defense. The Aggie ground attack experienced a resurgent last week, but linebacker David Vobora has 136 tackles and will be tough to overcome. The Vandal special teams are paced by Shiloh Keo, an excellent punt return specialist.
Who to Watch: Last week’s 78-yard output against New Mexico State wasn’t enough to land Dervin Speight on highlights shows, but the redshirt freshman did post his second-highest ground total of the year. Speight hit San Jose State for 99 earlier this year and has 447 yards on the ground this season. Together with Curtis Marsh, another freshman who had a season’s-best 67 yards and a score, Speight gives USU hope for the game against Idaho and for the future.
What Will Happen: Utah State’s momentum carries over in a game that should boast a lot of points, due to some shabby defenses.
CFN Prediction: Utah State 31 … Idaho 28 ... Line: Idaho -2
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...1

Kansas State (5-6) at Fresno State (6-4)  3:30 PM ESPN
Why to watch: Fresno State likes to think of itself as a sort of giant killer, but it's now more than five years removed from its 2001 season when it beat Colorado, Oregon State and Wisconsin and it hasn't pulled off too many impressive regular season wins since. It beat Kansas State in 2004, but that was when the program was well into its descent from the Big 12 title days. With two games left to play, a good season can become a great one with a win over the Wildcats and a win at New Mexico State. For KSU, a win means bowl eligibility after a 13th game appeared to be a sure thing just a few weeks ago. After starting out a decent 5-3 with a win over Texas and good showing against Auburn and Kansas, the Wildcats were shocked at Iowa State, got 73 hung on them by Nebraska, and couldn't handle the Missouri machine. A win would be the team's second road victory of the the year with the other coming in Austin.
Why Kansas State might win: Fresno State doesn't turn the ball over too often, but it never forces mistakes, either. To beat Kansas State, the Bulldogs can't get into any kind of a shootout, they don't have the firepower, so they're going to have to win the turnover battle. Don't hold your breath; FSU is 106th in the nation in turnover margin. This isn't a strong, consistent Bulldog passing team so field position will be at a premium. Fresno State usually wins that battle with a tremendous return game, but Kansas State will negate the advantage with the nation's top-ranked punt return unit and the eighth best punting game.
Why Fresno State might win: KSU QB Josh Freeman will be under as much pressure as he's had to face all season long. The Wildcat O line has done a terrific job of keeping its star clean for most of the year, but Fresno is great at manufacturing ways to get into the backfield. That pressure has helped a secondary that's done a great job all year long turning into one of the WAC's best. It got nailed for 491 yards in a shootout with Nevada, and gave up 410 yards to Hawaii, but that's WAC football. KSU should get its yards, but the Bulldogs will win their share of battles when the ball is in the air.
Who to watch: Fresno State sophomore A.J. Jefferson took over the kickoff return duties the fourth game of the season and has put together an All-America campaign ever since averaging 35.8 yards per try. Great from the start, he stepped up over the last two games averaging 52.7 yards per return with a touchdown in the win over Utah State, and averaging 35 yards a pop in the loss to Hawaii.
What will happen: Fresno State will play at another level with a big name coming to its house. Kansas State will get its passing yards, but not enough of them as the Bulldogs will be more physical, sharper, and tougher in the fourth quarter.
CFN Prediction: Fresno State 27 ... Kansas State 24 ... Line: PICK
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...2.5

Nevada (5-5) at San Jose State (4-7)   4:00 PM GamePlan
Why to Watch: A pair of odd seasons move toward their conclusions Saturday, when Nevada’s hard-luck Wolf Pack, which dropped two-point decisions to both WAC powers, Hawaii and Boise State, tangles with a Spartan team that scored 51 points two weeks ago and just 30 in the other three games during its most recent four-game stretch. The Wolf Pack has been fairly resilient despite injury problems and has been a strong offense all year, while SJSU followed up last year’s bowl campaign with a somewhat erratic performance on both sides of the ball.
Why Nevada Might Win: Even though Colin Kaepernick struggled some last week, he has done a fine job (14 TD, 3 interceptions) as a fill-in under center this year and will make the most of Marko Mitchell through the air. Meanwhile, Luke Lippincott posted his fifth consecutive 100-yard effort last week and appears to be uncontrollable in most situations. Expect the Wolf Pack to take full advantage of the generous Spartan defense and continue its pattern of simply trying to outgun opponents. If all the parts are working, Nevada has an attack that SJSU can’t keep up with.
Why San Jose State Might Win: QB Adam Tafralis has been hot of late, throwing for 369 yards and a score against Louisiana Tech and 317 yards the week before, against NMSU. He and Kevin Jurovich, who has caught 21 passes during the past two weeks and scored twice, are the backbone of an impressive passing game. SJSU’s plus-12 turnover margin could be a good factor, as could an improving run defense, led by senior linebacker Matthew Castelo.
Who to Watch: Junior Christopher Owens was a contributor in the SJSU defensive backfield in 2005-06, but this season, he has become a stalwart and is a big reason the Spartans enjoy such a large turnover margin. Owens has 74 tackles and six interceptions, including two picks in his last three games. Owens has also defended three passes and made 2.5 tackles for loss. His best game came against Hawaii, when he made 15 tackles, picked off a pass and knocked away two others.
What Will Happen: Nevada has too much firepower for a generous SJSU defense and a Spartan attack that won’t keep up.
CFN Prediction: Nevada 31 … San Jose State 20 ... Line: Nevada -3.5
Must See Rating: (5 The inside of your eyelids after eating two pounds of turkey  - 1 The inside of a gym with every 120 calories equaling a mile on the treadmill) ...2