Bring up the Big Ten
this off-season and you’ll get two topics of discussion: the schedules
and the perceived lack of speed. While it might be the granddaddy of the
conferences, it has a lot to learn from the younger, hipper leagues when
it comes to scheduling, and to some, fielding teams with fast players.
Schedule-wise, forgetting the mega-gap between the end of the Big Ten
season and the bowls (Ohio State beat Michigan on November 18th
and didn’t play Florida until January 8th), the league that
can’t add up its own teams continues to have a big problem with the
configuration of the slates.
Having eleven teams makes it realistically impossible to have a
round-robin schedule like the Pac 10 (no way the Big Ten teams are going
to give up the cash cow of a third non-conference game), and not having
twelve prevents the league from splitting into two divisions and
settling things with a title game. Therefore you have a situation like
last year when Wisconsin and Ohio State didn’t meet, and Purdue didn’t
have to play Ohio State or Michigan.
Talk about your unfair draws, Iowa, a very good team, but not an elite
one, doesn’t have to play the Buckeyes or the Wolverines meaning it’ll
be right in the hunt for the Big Ten title, while other teams miss some
of the lightweights. That still won’t change.
Team That'll Surprise
Northwestern. It’ll be back to a bowl after a tragic season with a more
mature coaching staff, a more experienced team, and just enough talent
on both sides of the ball to get to six wins. As long as there aren’t
any gags against Northeastern, Duke and Eastern Michigan, and if the
Wildcats can pull off winnable home games against Nevada, Minnesota and
Indiana, they’ll be in.
Team That'll Disappoint
Michigan State. Wait a year. For Spartan fans hoping to end the yearly
craziness and bizarre collapses, this season could be even worse in Mark
Dantonio’s first year. The team needs to be rebuilt, remade and reborn,
and it’s going to take at least a season to make it happen. The schedule
doesn’t help out with three road games in the final five with the two
homes games against Michigan and Penn State. Indiana will beat someone
with a pulse at home, and MSU is a safe bet for the upset.
Offensive Player of the Year
RB Mike Hart, Sr. Michigan – It’ll be a fight to the finish as Michigan
QB Chad Henne, WR Mario Manningham, and Wisconsin RB P.J. Hill all fight
it out for the honor. Hart, as long as he stays healthy, will rumble for
100 yards at will with defenses also having to deal with the Wolverine
passing game.
Defensive Player of the Year
LB Dan Connor, Sr. Penn State – Paul Posluszny wasn’t the only
productive Nittany Lion linebacker over the last few years. Overshadowed
so far, Connor will finally be in the spotlight as the league’s premier
defensive player. Don’t be shocked if Linebacker U. has yet another
Butkus Award coming its way.
5 Big-Time Players Who Deserve a Bigger Spotlight ...
1. CB Jack Ikegwuonu, Jr. Wisconsin
2. WR Dorien Bryant, Sr. Purdue
3. LB J Leman, Sr. Illinois
4. DE Willie VanDeSteeg, Jr. Minnesota
5. OG Adam Kraus, Sr. Michigan
Coach on the Hot Seat
Lloyd Carr,
Michigan – Hey Lloyd, thanks for that national title a decade ago. All
those Big Ten titles have certainly been fun, and starting 11-0 and
missing a national title shot by a whisker certainly showed how good the
program still is …now win another championship. Oh yeah, and you’d better not lose a fourth
in a row to the Buckeyes. (To those fickle Maize and Blue fans
hoping soon for a coaching change in the near future: be careful what
you wish for.)
5 Non-Conference Games the Big Ten had better take, very, very
seriously
1. Ohio State at Washington, Sept. 15
2. Ball State at Illinois, Sept. 20
3 Purdue at Toledo, Sept. 1
4. Appalachian State at Michigan, Sept. 1 – (Don’t laugh … there’s a
two-time defending national champion in the house and it’s not the one
in blue.)
5. North Dakota State at Minnesota, Oct. 20 – (You’re still laughing …
it took a blocked kick for the Gophers to avoid being upset by the Bison
last year.)
5 Best Pro Prospects
1. OT Jake Long, Sr. Michigan
2. LB Dan Connor, Sr. Penn State
3. CB Jack Ikegwuonu, Jr. Wisconsin
4. CB Malcolm Jenkins, Soph. Ohio State
5. TE Travis Beckum, Jr. Wisconsin
5 Biggest Shoes to Fill
1. Todd Boeckman, Antonio Henton or Robbie Schoenhoft for Troy Smith, QB
Ohio State
2. Jake Bscherer for Joe Thomas, OT Wisconsin
3. Tyrell Sales for Paul Posluszny, LB Penn State (actually, Sales is
likely to step in for Dan Connor, who’ll move to the middle to take over
for Posluszny)
4. Brandon Harrison for Leon Hall, CB Michigan
5. Brian Robiskie for Ted Ginn, Jr. WR Ohio State
5 Bold Predictions
1.
Michigan’s offense won’t be unstoppable like most will expect, but it’ll
be wickedly effective as it rolls to a 10-0 start. Forget the problems
with number two receiver Adrian Arrington and the knee injury to key
running back Kevin Grady, the Wolverine offense will still bomb away at
will thanks to the offensive line, Mike Hart, Marion Manningham, and the
underappreciated Chad Henne.
2. Michigan State won’t bounce back. It’s not like John L. Smith
couldn’t coach (remember, he set the foundation for the Louisville
powerhouse), but he wasn’t the right fit. Mark Dantonio is an excellent
coach who’ll soon make the Spartans above average again, but it’s not
going to happen this year. In fact, MSU will finish somewhere in the
bottom three.
3. Penn State will be in the title hunt until the very end. And Anthony
Morelli will be terrific. The defense will be its typical nasty brick
wall, and just enough of a running game will emerge to keep the offense
rolling. Losses to Michigan and Wisconsin will keep the Nittany Lions
from the Big Ten title, but they’ll be close.
4. Iowa will rebound, at least record-wise. Drew Tate might be gone and
no one is thinking about the Hawkeyes when it comes to the Big Ten
championship, but they’ll come up with ten wins (helped by missing Ohio
State and Michigan).
5. Illinois still won’t be all that good. This year. Everyone will have
a nervous eye on the Illini after a few amazing recruiting classes, but
it won’t be until 2008 when the young talent will finally be experienced
enough to start winning consistently. There will be a big upset or two
this season, but it’s not going to be the breakthrough year many will
expect.
What Will Happen
- Wisconsin will get out to a 9-0 start before losing to Ohio State
in Columbus. The Badgers will bounce back to hand Michigan its first
defeat of the year before beating Minnesota in the season-finale to go
11-1 and off to the Rose Bowl. Michigan will also finish 11-1 (helped by
a win over Ohio State).
- Ohio State will start out hot thanks to its defense, and then will
suffer a collapse at Purdue in a shootout. Losses at Penn State and
Michigan will make Jim Tressel’s team an also-ran (but it’ll bounce back
in a big way in 2008).
- Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, Iowa, Ohio State, Purdue,
Northwestern and Minnesota will go bowling.