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CFN Three-Year Program Ranking - 26 to 39

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 16, 2007


CFN's 2007 Three-Year Program Rankings and Analysis ... Teams 26 through 39

Three Year Program Analysis

Teams 26 to 39

Program Rankings
Scoring System  
1 to 10 | 11 to 25
40 to 59 | 60 to 79
80 to 99 | 100 to 119
By Category
APR | Attendance

Bad Losses
Best Leagues
By Conference
Conf. Win %
Draft
| Elite Wins
Quality Wins
| D-I Wins

Quick Explanation of Scores
- Attendance: Home attendance average over the last three years divided by 10,000. Avg. Score: 4.32
- APR: The most recently released Academic Performance Rate. Avg. Score: 5.66
- Quality Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with a winning record. Avg. Score: 5.56
- Total Wins: Wins over D-I teams. Avg. Score: 17.13
- Players Drafted: Number of players drafted divided by two. Avg. Score: 5.85
- Conference Win %: Conference winning percentage times 10. Avg. Score: 5.00
- Elite Wins: Wins over D-I teams that finished with two losses or fewer, or on the road over teams that finished with three losses or fewer. Add an additional 0.5 for an Elite Win over a two-loss team on the road. Avg. Score: 0.80
- Bad Losses: Losses to teams that finished with four wins or fewer, or any loss to a non-D-I team. Subtract each loss from the overall total. Subtract an additional 0.5 for each bad loss at home. Avg. Score: 1.22
-
Detailed Explanation of the Scoring System and Categories


26. TCU
Score:
54.17
2006 Ranking:
23   2005 Ranking: 25
2004 Ranking:
27   2003 Ranking:
34

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.09 8 6 26 7 0 0 7.08 54.17

Program Analysis: It seems like TCU should be higher, but there was the clunker of a 2004 season bringing things down. When that doesn't count towards next year's rankings, and this year's expected big season does, the Horned Frogs should rocket up to around the top 10. The APR is tremendous and the Draft Score will go up, as will the Conference Winning % and Quality Wins. Most importantly, there should be well over 30 D-I wins in next year's rankings.


27. Virginia

Score:
54.01
2006 Ranking:
22   2005 Ranking: 18
2004 Ranking:
33   2003 Ranking:
33

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
6.01 8 14 20 8 0 0 5.00 54.01

Program Analysis: Being smart helps. The good APR overcomes winning just half of ACC games, but most impressive is the Draft Score with the most players taken from the non-top 25 teams, and 11th overall. Unfortunately, the talent hasn't necessarily translated into enough victories, even with a solid eight Quality Wins. It'll take a big season to prevent a drop, with an 8-4 2004 season off the books next year.


28. Nebraska

Score:
52.42
2006 Ranking:
28   2005 Ranking: 35
2004 Ranking:
16   2003 Ranking:
9

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
8.01 6 12 19 8 0 0 5.42 52.42

Program Analysis: Nebraska might not be back to being Nebraska, but head coach Bill Callahan appears to have the pieces in place for the best passing attack in the school's history. While that's not saying much, it'll be a shock if the Huskers aren't in the top 25 next year. The Attendance Score will be stead forever, the Draft Score is great, but only winning 54% of Big 12 games isn't going to cut it around Lincoln.


29. UCLA

Score:
52.32
2006 Ranking:
35   2005 Ranking: 44
2004 Ranking:
42   2003 Ranking: 42

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
6.32 4 8 23 9 1 1 6.00 52.32

Program Analysis: UCLA might still play second-fiddle to USC, but the program has done well under Karl Dorrell and appears ready to make a huge leap. The APR, for a school as good as UCLA, should probably be better, and there should be more Quality Wins. Basically, the numbers across the board are solid, and they all add up. The Elite win came over the Trojans last year, and the Bad Loss came to Arizona in 2005.


30. Alabama

Score:
49.58
2006 Ranking:
32   2005 Ranking: 30
2004 Ranking:
24   2003 Ranking: 21

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
8.50 4 12 21 6 1 1.5 4.58 49.58

Program Analysis: The 4-9 2003 season was off the books, and Bama only moved up a few spots thanks to a Bad Loss at home to Mississippi State last year. That needs to change under Nick Saban, and at the very least, along with beating Auburn, the SEC performances have to better after only winning 46% of conference games. The Draft Score is good, but the APR is lousy. Of course, it's all about wins for Saban.


31. Texas Tech

Score:
49.41
2006 Ranking:
29   2005 Ranking: 21
2004 Ranking:
40   2003 Ranking:
53

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.16 5 7 22 7 1.5 1 6.25 49.41

Program Analysis: A consistently solid program over the last five years, Texas Tech took a little bit of a dip, but not much. Winning 63% in the Big 12, considering the Red Raiders play in the South, is impressive, as was the Elite Win over California in 2004. Unfortunately, that won't count in next year's rankings, while the Bad Loss to Colorado will stick for the next two years. On an interesting note, for as good as the team has been in recent years, there hasn't been a ten-win season since 1976.


32. Texas A&M

Score:
48.59
2006 Ranking:
54   2005 Ranking: 41
2004 Ranking:
50   2003 Ranking: 29

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
7.67 4 5 19 9 1 0 5.42 48.59

Program Analysis: After years of mediocrity in the rankings, the Aggies finally moved up within range of the top 25 after losing the 4-8 2003 season and gaining last year's nice 9-4 campaign. The Attendance Score is great, but the Draft Score is stunningly average for a program of this size. As good as things have looked lately, winning 54% of Big 12 games isn't what Aggie fans had in mind when Dennis Franchione was hired.


33. BYU

Score:
47.80
2006 Ranking:
65   2005 Ranking: 72
2004 Ranking:
56   2003 Ranking:
45

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.91 5 5 21 6 1.5 1.5 7.39 47.80

Program Analysis: Bronco Mendenhall has brought BYU back after years of mediocrity after the fall out from the end of the Gary Crowton era. The APR is strong, remembering that many players go off on Church missions and take a while to graduate, and the 74% winning clip in Mountain West play is terrific. The Elite win came at TCU last year, while the Bad Loss came at home to UNLV in 2004. Expect a spot in the top 25 next year.  


34. Navy

Score:
47.54
2006 Ranking:
51   2005 Ranking: 75
2004 Ranking:
101   2003 Ranking:
109

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.25 10 0 24 3 0 0 7.30 47.54

Program Analysis: The Draft Score won't register anything and there will rarely be an Elite Win, but Navy has been able to crank out 24 D-I wins over the last three years and, as always, has a perfect APR. Head coach Paul Johnson has created something special, and it should all continue with, arguably, the best offensive backfield the program has had in decades.


35. Maryland

Score:
47.50
2006 Ranking:
33   2005 Ranking: 19
2004 Ranking:
13   2003 Ranking:
18

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.42 7 7 18 9 0 0 4.58 47.50

Program Analysis: The Terps achieved a lofty status under Ralph Friedgen for a few years, dropped last year, and took a further dip this season despite a strong 9-4 season. Losing the 10-3 2003 campaign from the mix caused the drop, but the talent is there for a big year and moving back up. First, Maryland has to win more ACC games after coming up with just 46% in ACC play over the last three years.


36. South Carolina

Score:
46.36
2006 Ranking:
56   2005 Ranking: 58
2004 Ranking:
45   2003 Ranking:
37

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
7.86 3 7 20 7 0 0 5.00 46.36

Program Analysis: Considering South Carolina is one of the SEC's best academic institutions, the APR Score is surprisingly bad. The good Attendance Score, and 20 wins, helped the Gamecocks move up, but the only way they'll get higher is with more wins in SEC play. Now that Steve Spurrier has his recruits in place, the sky's the limit.


37. Arizona State

Score:
45.65
2006 Ranking:
48   2005 Ranking: 47
2004 Ranking:
67   2003 Ranking: 55

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
5.95 2 7 22 7 1 1 5.20 45.65

Program Analysis: Interestingly enough, ASU is the highest, by far, that it's been in the five years since these rankings have been created, yet it was the end of the Dirk Koetter era with Dennis Erickson coming in. Winning 52% of Pac 10 games doesn't cut it, but the rest of the scores are just good enough to be in range of the top 25. The Elite Win came over Iowa in 2004, and won't be part of next year's rankings, but neither will that year's Bad Loss to Arizona.  


38. Oregon State

Score:
45.58
2006 Ranking:
56   2005 Ranking: 58
2004 Ranking:
45   2003 Ranking:
37

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
3.98 3 7 20 9 2 1.5 5.60 45.58

Program Analysis: With a 10-4 2006, Oregon State got a boost up to its highest ranking since 2003. While the schedule is tough this year, the team is among the best in recent years and should help keep the ranking high. The Elite Wins (USC and Hawaii last year) offset the Bad Loss to Arizona in 2005. The APR Score is lousy, and the Attendance score isn't special, but the Beavers should be in the top 30 next year, barring a disappointment.


39. Southern Miss

Score:
45.53
2006 Ranking:
30   2005 Ranking: 40
2004 Ranking:
46   2003 Ranking:
43

Attendance Score APR Score Draft Wins Quality Wins Elite Wins Bad Losses Conf. TOTAL
2.86 9 2 21 5 0 0 6.67 45.53

Program Analysis: Continued greatness in Conference USA play, and a wonderful APR, keeps Southern Miss high, but the overall ranking slipped after losing a 9-4 2003 season. Considering the success, the Draft Score is low, and there aren't a lot of Quality Wins, but head coach Jeff Bower has a power that should keep rolling this year.