ARIZONA WILDCATS
Overview:
In each of coach Mike Stoops’ three seasons so far, the Arizona Wildcats have been the trendy pick to make a move up in the standings. And in each year they have failed to do much, with back to back 3-8 campaigns followed by a 6-6 mark last year. After so many disappointments, the buzz is finally just about gone from the program, as almost everyone has them finishing in the lower half of the league, in a low-end bowl at best.
But should people really be so down on this team? They’ve got a fantastic defense, and their offense should be improved. This could very well be the year they make the move that people have been expecting the last two years.
Offense:
This has been U of A’s Achilles Heel the past few years. They haven’t run well, they haven’t passed well, and they’ve coughed it up for too often. However, this year might be a different story. They brought in a new OC who’s had experience with Texas Tech’s spread, they have a more experienced QB in Tuitama who’ll make fewer mistakes, they have a decent receiver corps, and they have an experienced line to take the heat off.
What they don’t have is a running game, since none of their returning guys have done anything, and they don’t have any strong recruits coming up either. Still, it’s not like they had much of one the past few seasons either. At least now they should be decent somewhere on offense.
Defense:
This is without a doubt the strength of this team. They have one of the best players in the league in corner Antoine Cason, they have a really good linebacker in Spencer Larsen, and they have a good end in Louis Holmes. But it’s more than just that. They’re loaded with experience in this unit, with 9 starters returning, and will be especially strong against the pass, thanks to one of the best corner pairs in the country, Cason and Fontenot.
Against the run, they’ve been a bit more erratic, as LSU and Oregon dominated them on the ground, and a few other teams found a lot of success against them as well. But with 6 of the front seven returning, and the one hole being plugged by a solid juco linebacker, they should be a lot better on the ground.
Overall, this is going to be an extremely solid defense. USC’s defense is very hyped (for good reason), but by season’s end, there’s a reasonable chance that this unit may well prove to be even better.
Potentially Huge Upset Win:
Cal. The Bears look to be a passing team with some questions at secondary and could be an idea matchup for Arizona to exploit. “Revenge” may be a factor, but with a bigger game at Autzen the next week, don’t expect the Bears to be emphasizing this game any more than usual.
Potentially Huge Upset Loss:
New Mexico. One week before the cal trip, this game could be a major trap, especially with the Lobos solid on defense and in the running game.
Bottom Line:
There’s no reason to think this won’t be a bowl team, as they’re more experienced and have a much nicer schedule after swapping in New Mexico for LSU. They aren’t good enough to crack the very top of the league, but seven or eight wins is a pretty reasonable target for this team.
ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS
Overview:
Over the past few years, ASU has had a very consistent identity: great passing game, mediocre everywhere else, and lousy on the road. Now under a new head coach, they are looking to form a new identity and move upwards in the Pac-10 pecking order.
Indeed, Dennis Erickson is well-known for being able to turn teams around, so there’s plenty of hope that things will get better soon. However, with some major roster issues, especially on defense, year one of the Erickson era is likely to be a rebuilding effort.
Offense:
The good news is that ASU has finally put together a good running game. They have a solid O-line, and Ryan Torain is a budding star.
However, the passing game may be an issue. Quarterback Rudy Carpenter struggled at times last year, and now he loses his favorite target in tight end Zach Miller. And while the rest of the receiving corps returns, no one in this group particularly stood out. And if they do end up using a lot of 3-WR sets, it’s only going to put more pressure on this group.
Defense:
The secondary should be a bit less of a problem, as they still have Barrett. But they don’t have anything close to a shutdown corner, which is going to be a big problem against some of the teams they’ll be playing. Overall, there’s enough talent that they won’t be too bad, but they aren’t going to scare anyone either, and they’ll struggle against anyone who has either a really good passing game or a really good running game.
They return two of the four D-line starters, although Luis Vazquez should fit in well at end. Linebacker is another story, though. They lose two of the three starters, and Mike Nixon hadn’t been particularly productive last year. It’s true that the new guys had been part of the rotation in 2006, but they haven’t seen enough action, or done well enough while they were there, to project anything other than a dropoff.
The secondary should be a bit less of a problem, as they still have Barrett. But they don’t have anything close to a shutdown corner, which is going to be a big problem against some of the teams they’ll be playing. Overall, there’s enough talent that they won’t be too bad, but they aren’t going to scare anyone either, and they’ll struggle against anyone who has either a really good passing game or a really good running game.
Potentially Huge Upset Win:
Cal might be possible, since it’ll be Homecoming, ASU will have a week off before, and it comes after two nasty games for the Bears.
Potentially Huge Upset Loss:
It’s still ASU, so anything on the road qualifies. Don’t be surprised to see them split their road trip to Stanford and Wazzu, especially since both should have pretty good passing games.
Bottom Line:
Erickson is a talented coach, but there are too many holes to fill to expect this team to make noise in the Pac-10. With another year or two of recruiting, this team will be better, but this just isn’t going to be their year. A soft OOC schedule gets them to a bowl game, but it won't be a good one.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
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