CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS
Overview:
California enters 2007 looking to improve upon a 9-3 2006 campaign that has generally been considered a disappointment. And with a few really good playmakers on offense, there’s hope in Berkeley that the Bears will be able to once again be a factor in the Pac-10 race. However, due to the loss of too many key players, that isn’t going to happen this year.
This should remain a very strong team, and they’ll make some serious noise in 2008 and 2009, but with one of the youngest rosters in the country there are going to be some growing pains this year.
Offense:
Cal has without a doubt one of the most dangerous passing games in the country, perhaps even this single best if things shake out well. They have a fantastic receiver in Jackson as well as two other very talented guys in Hawkins and Jordan. They have a quarterback who was solid last year and ought to improve this year. And they have a line that did well in pass protection and should enjoy similar success.
The running game isn’t as good, though it should still be solid. The O-line had some issues with run-blocking, especially against the better defenses they faced (Tennessee and USC controlled the line of scrimmage, a big part of why those games were so lopsided). It’s tough to see major improvement in that area, especially after losing two starters. Adding to their problems is the loss of Marshawn Lynch. He was a fantastic playmaker for the Bears, and while Forsett is a capable replacement, a sizable drop-off is almost inevitable.
Defense:
This could be a problem area for Cal. Last year’s unit underachieved a lot, and now they need to cope with the loss of three of their leaders in Bishop, Hughes and Mebane, plus some other important contributors. If they can get back to playing at their talent level, they’ll be good again, but if whatever was off last year stays off, they’re going to have some issues.
The front seven especially looks vulnerable. This used to be a big team strength, but they’re clearly rebuilding right now, which makes them vulnerable to strong running teams. The D-line loses three of four, and the linebackers lose two big contributors in Bishop and Pimentel. The secondary should be decent, though no one has yet stepped up to lead that unit, and it’s tough to see how they’ll respond to losing such a great corner in Hughes. Moreover, having a pair of inexperienced defensive ends will hurt the pass rush, which means that their pass defense overall won’t be so good either.
Potentially Huge Upset Win:
USC. It’s not at all impossible. If the Trojans have some offensive issues (possible at this point), then Cal may be able to pull it out by bombing away and getting a few home runs.
Potentially Huge Upset Loss:
Arizona. The alarm bells are going off in a major way here. The Wildcats have a great secondary, which would neutralize Cal’s biggest strength. Plus, playing in September gives an edge to the more veteran Wildcats.
Bottom Line:
This is a young team, so there will be some growing pains and they’ll take a small step back this year. But this will still be a tough, tough team to beat. Anything below 8-4 would be a major surprise.
STANFORD CARDINAL
Overview:
This is a really weird team to try and peg. Last year they were absolutely, positive terrible… and yet they were also the victim of an almost perfect storm of bad breaks. They lost 71 starts to injury or suspension, by far the highest in the country, and their three best players (QB and two WR’s) were hurt, one for nearly the whole year. They had a -11 turnover margin, and they had the third worst offensive yards per point and about 20th worse defensive (stats from Phil Steele). Basically, anything which could go wrong, did go wrong. And with 16 starters returning, it seems certain they’ll be better. But will “better” mean more wins or just losses that are less embarrassing?
Offense:
There’s some good news here. They’ve got a pair of outstanding receivers in Bradford and Moore, plus a decent third guy in Sherman. And they’ve got a talented young running back in Gerhart. And they’ve got a senior quarterback in Ostrander who shouldn’t be terrible. But…
The O-line still stinks. This unit has been a sieve for years, and there’s no reason to think that things will be different this year. Yes, they return some experience, but they’ve been so bad I don’t think it’ll much matter. This, more than anything else, is the reason they’ve run for less than 100 yards per game each of the past few years. And if the line turns out to be really bad (possible), they’re likely in for yet another season full of big hits and nasty injuries.
Defense:
This looks like another problem area for the Cardinal. With a year of experience, a lot of the guys who struggled last year will be better, but the loss of Okwo and Hooper will hurt.
Moreover, this group was an absolute disaster against the run last year, as there was only one game where they held the opposition to less than 100 on the ground. Even worse, if you round up the Oregon game (actually 298 yards), they had as many games where they gave up 300+ yards on the ground as games where they gave up less than 200! That’s not just bad, that’s the stuff of legend. Fortunately, they do return six of their front seven, and they did improve over the course of the year against the run. So it’s fair to say they won’t be truly awful again, though things still don’t look great.
The passing defense should be a bit better, as they return both starting corners and both starting ends. Again, they aren’t going to scare anyone, but they look like they ought to be decent, which would be an improvement.
Potentially Huge Upset Win:
This is largely a timing thing, but I can’t help wondering about TCU. They have a big game against Utah five days later, which could take away from their readiness. Moreover, they’ve got a mixed record against good passing teams, especially on the road, and they’ve got some serious rebuilding to do on offense. If they’re really good enough to be a BCS-buster, this will be a rout, but if not, Stanford might actually have a shot.
Potentially Huge Upset Loss:
San Jose State is the only game that would be an upset loss. And since they’re improving under Tomey, they will certainly have a shot, as long as they stop their usual underachieving on the road.
Bottom Line:
Stanford will be better, but they won’t be good. Two or three wins, unless they’re really lucky or really unlucky.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com