WASHINGTON HUSKIES
Overview:
2006 was a big surprise performance for the Washington Huskies. Led by Senior quarterback Isiah Stanback, they started the year 4-2, and gave Oklahoma and USC all they could handle on the road. Things were looking good… and then Stanback got hurt against Oregon State, and everything fell apart. They started losing the close games, and bottomed out in an ugly home loss to a 19-point underdog Stanford team. Another Apple Cup upset win against the Cougars salvaged something going into the offseason, but can the Huskies bounce back?
Looking at the personnel, the answer appears to be no. They’ve graduated too many key players on both sides of the ball, and have too many obvious weaknesses, to think that this will be another surprise year.
Offense:
While U-Dub doesn’t look strong on offense, the running game should be decent. With 3 returning starters on the line, and the return of leading back Louis Rankin and the addition of talented young back JR Hasty, the Huskies should be decent on the ground.
However, the passing game doesn’t look as good. QB Carl Bonnell was bad last year, throwing 11 picks, and was a big reason those close games started going the other way. Washington seems likely to turn to young hotshot Jake Locker, but without any starting experience, and against a murderous schedule (especially early), it’s going to be a rough start for him. The receivers return a fair amount of experience, but lose their main weapon in Sonny Shackelford. If the new freshmen are able to contribute, this might be a good unit, but right now it looks average at best.
Defense:
The defense looks like it’s going to have some issues this time around. They gave up the most yards per game during Pac-10 play last year, and they lose five of their six leading tacklers.
Fortunately, the D-line looks like it should be all right. With three starters returning and a senior in Reffett to fill in the other hole, they shouldn’t get pushed around up front.
However, there are a lot of holes to fill in the back seven. They lose two key linebackers in White and Bomar, which will affect their run defense. But it’s the secondary which is the real concern, as they lose key contributors Dashon Goldson., CJ Wallace, and Matt Fountaine. That’s a really bad combination in a pass-heavy league like the Pac-10.
Potentially Huge Upset Win:
Call me crazy, but I wonder about Boise State. Despite the fantastic year they had in 2006, they’re replacing a bunch of key guys, including their QB and whole receiving corps. And their front seven has holes to fill as well. That could give a team that should be decent running the ball, like the Huskies, a shot.
And then, of course, is the Apple Cup. U-Dub has been underdogs each of the last 6 years in that game. And they’re 4-2 in that game over the last six years.
Potentially Huge Upset Loss:
Syracuse would certainly count as an upset loss, but the Orange is pretty bad, so that shouldn’t happen. Stanford also would count as an upset loss given most peoples’ expectations. That one seems entirely possible.
Bottom Line:
Last year aside, it's been a bad few seasons to be a Husky fan, and it doesn't look like this year will be much better. They’ve been recruiting a bit better, and they’re getting a bit younger, so they should eventually improve, but it’s really tough to see them approaching a winning record, especially with their schedule. Two or three wins is the projection.
WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS
Overview:
The past few seasons in Pullman have certainly been interesting. After a great 9-3 start to his tenure, coach Bill Doba has struggled tremendously, never again reaching a bowl and watching as his program has slowly moved lower and lower in the Pac-10. They’ve had injuries, they’ve had bad bounces, and in general it seems as if they’ve almost been cursed.
Last year seemed like it would finally break the curse, as the Cougars started 6-3 and needed only one win against a relatively light finishing schedule in order to get back into the postseason. Instead, they dropped three straight, including home losses to both Arizona and Washington. Moreover, in both of those home losses, they out gained the opposition and had a positive turnover margin!
So does the curse continue, and do the Cougars have another bad year, or can they turn it around? With what may be the league’s best quarterback (yes, you read that right) in Alex Brink, they may have a shot, especially if they finally start to catch the breaks instead of getting caught by them. However, too many questions, especially on defense, make a bowl game a long shot.
Offense:
The Cougars should have a very good passing game, led by a great QB in Alex Brink and receivers Michael Bumpus and Brandon Gibson. The line has to rebuild a bit, so pass protection might be a bit of an issue, but when things are working, this is an attack that can tear apart unprepared secondaries.
The running game is a work in progress, though. RB Dwight Tardy had a good freshman year, and definitely has promise for the future, and they’ve got solid depth with Hutsona and Woolridge. However, the O-line is rebuilding a bit, and a few of them also have injury histories, which could be a problem as the season wears on.
Defense:
On defense, Washington State needs to replace a tremendous amount of production, losing four of their top five and five of their top seven tacklers from last year. The only players returning who did much last year are linebacker Greg Trent and Safety Husain Abdullah.
Fortunately, they still do a fair amount of returning starters in the line. While production wasn’t high, they still do return three of four starters, so there could well be improvement on that front. A rebuilding linebacker corps isn’t good news, but Cory Evans did well in the time he had last year, so it’s not a totally new unit. All in all, the run D certainly won’t be great, but it ought to be OK.
The pass defense, however, is a very big question mark. Other than Abdullah, everyone in the secondary lacks much experience, which isn’t good against some of the outstanding receiver corps in the league. Moreover, they also lose most of the sacks from the line, and the loss of end Mkristo Bruce is a huge blow for them. This already wasn’t a great pass D, and it’s likely to slip a bit further this time around.
Potentially Huge Upset Win:
The traditional upset pick for the Cougars is a high level team visiting Martin in November, but we’ll stretch the timeframe a bit and look at UCLA. It comes after a bye for Wazzu and comes after the big Cal game for the Bruins, who traditionally drop a random game on the road. Ignore “revenge” (after all, the Bruins were 5-4 in the league last year), and take a look at the matchups. UCLA’s specialty is run defense, but the Cougars will be a passing team first. And since the Bruins will be run-oriented on offense, having talent in the front seven will come in handy. Is it a reach? Sure. But is it possible? Yes.
Potentially Huge Upset Loss:
Do you really need to ask? The Cougars have blown so many games against Washington when they’ve been the clear favorites that even though they’re once again the better team the Huskies are again the Apple Cup pick.
Bottom Line:
The Cougars are overall a decent team. Second-division, to be sure, but they won’t occupy the cellar, and they’ll be just good enough to scare, and maybe even knock off, one or two of the upper half Pac-10 teams. They’ll challenge for a bowl game, but will fall short once again.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
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