Thursday Night Throwdown - LSU vs. MSU

LSU heads to Mississippi State to open the SEC season, while Oregon State hosts Utah, and many other match-ups in the biggest Thursday in college football!

THURSDAY NIGHT THROWDOWN

8-30-07
All Times Eastern

THE MAIN EVENT
LSU at Mississippi State

Time: 8:00
TV: ESPN
Line: LSU by 18.

Importance of the game to LSU: For the Bayou Bengals, every game is critical. They are considered by many to be the number two team in the country, behind USC. That makes winning every week all that much more important. With home dates against Virginia Tech and South Carolina looming before the month is out, and Florida coming calling in October, getting all the kinks out of the way early is critical. The road games this year after this one are Tulane (September 29), Kentucky (October 13), Alabama (November 3) and Ole Miss (November 17). This is not exactly a Murderer’s Row road schedule. This environment will be as hostile as any that they play in all year. A Thursday night road game on national television in a place where the cowbells are sure to be clanging is enough to rattle any team.

Importance of the game to Mississippi State: Simply put for Sylvester Croom, it is win now or go home. The bowl drought has reached six years, and the last three (under Croom) have produced just nine wins. Now, two of those were rousing wins over Alabama and Florida, so the quality wins are there. The Bulldogs need a nationally televised game like this one to show that they can be contenders this year in the SEC West…at least for a bowl game. With Tulane, Jacksonville State, and UAB on the schedule, the key is going to be if they can find a way to win a couple of SEC games that they shouldn’t to squeeze into a bowl game. There is no time like the present.

Quote from Les Miles, LSU head coach: “I'm fortunate to coach at a place where we understand expectations, enjoy 'em, and look forward to a great season. I think the schedule is one where you better start fast. Thursday night, on the road, SEC, you're playing Mississippi State, first TV game, you better be ready. I think Coach Croom is returning a very talented team. Certainly it will be a case we'll need to start fast.”

Quote from Sylvester Croom, Mississippi State head coach: “They’re not going to enjoy going out there everyday in this heat, but it separates the players on the team. Fatigue will separate the real players from the others.”

BREAKDOWN:
LSU Offense vs. Misssissippi State Defense: Matt Flynn is the third most well known quarterback in the country that did not start a game last season. (Tim Tebow from Florida and Jimmy Clausen from Notre Dame are the others.) He put up some nice numbers against Miami in the Peach Bowl two years ago, but this will be all different. He will be in a hostile environment taking on a good SEC defense. With both starting receivers gone, it would normally be a time to be concerned if you are a new quarterback. Not so at LSU, where Early Doucet is projected as one of the best receivers in the country this season. He finally gets an official starting job, after catching 59 balls four eight touchdowns a year ago. The left side of the line returns, but the right side will be all new. The running game will be by committee early in the season, with Jacob Hester, Keiland Williams, Charles Scott, and Richard Murphy all looking like they could get playing time. The Mississippi State defense was a bright spot a year ago, finishing 41st in the country in total defense, despite finishing 83rd in scoring defense. The defensive line will return just one starter, but he’s a solid one. Titus Brown is an excellent end, who recorded 7.5 sacks a year ago. Jamar Chaney is a solid middle linebacker, and Gabe O’Neal has also shown signs of being a solid linebacker. Derek Pegues had four interceptions a year ago, and is making the move to safety this year. This defense is capable of keeping the Bulldogs in almost every game they play. With the noise level being what it’s going to be, the key may be just how Flynn holds up under the pressure. If Brown and the Bulldog defensive line can get some pressure on Flynn, they could make his this start one he’d like to forget. If the Tiger offensive line gives him time to throw, then the Tigers should move the ball.

LSU Defense vs. Mississippi State Offense: Mississippi State will rely heavily on Michael Henig on the offensive side of the ball. Henig improved late last season, as did the Mississippi State offense. The Bulldogs were shut out in their first two games against South Carolina and Auburn. In their remaining six SEC games (LSU, Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, and Ole Miss), they averaged 21.2 points per game. With Henig back, along with four offensive linemen to protect him, hope abounds. The receivers are deep, with Tony Burks, Lance Long, Aubrey Bell, Jamayel Smith, Brandon McCrae, and Co-Eric Riley all being playmakers from the position. The running game should be lead by Anthony Dixon, who is a very capable back that has shown in spurts what he is capable of. This offense should be much better this year. LSU returns one of the top defenses in America, and they have eight starters back. Tyson Jackson returns at one defensive end spot, where he recorded 8.5 sacks a year ago. Glenn Dorsey has also spent a lot of time in opponent’s backfields. The secondary is the most inexperienced part of the defense, breaking in two new starters. Craig Steltz tied for the team lead in interceptions a year ago, but is technically a new starter, while Jonathan Zenon also had four interceptions and Chevis Jackson is a shut down corner. Still, the linebackers may be the stars of the defense, with Luke Sanders, Darry Beckwith, and Ali Highsmith all back. They should be a force to be reckoned with this year. If Henig and company can just move the ball consistently and keep the field position turned in their favor, then that will be a success against this defense, and possibly they could score a few more points than people think.

Prediction: This game looks like a mismatch in a lot of ways. However, Mississippi State’s offense is much better than people want to give it credit for. In this situation, the Bulldogs will play far better than they are expected to. The crowd will be frenzied, the pressure will be on Flynn to perform on the road in the SEC, and it is opening night for the number two in the country. There is a lot of pressure on LSU to win and win impressively. If Mississippi State can just get first downs on offense, keep LSU pinned deep in their own territory as much as possible, rely on that offensive line to open up holes for Dixon to keep the chains moving, and then hope for a couple of big plays from the passing game, then they really could win this game. LSU having to go a long field will be very difficult. Still, LSU is just too much. It’s hard to expect Mississippi State’s offense to get much going. LSU wins a closer one than a lot of people think. LSU 27, Mississippi State 14.

THE UNDERCARD

Tulsa at Lousiana-Monroe (7:00, ESPN2): This game may be more interesting than people will give it credit for. Tulsa has a new coach in Todd Graham, but a solid team that won the Conference USA championship just two years ago. Louisiana-Monroe has 18 starters back from a team that went 3-4 in the Sun Belt and lost to Kentucky and Kansas by a combined four points a year ago. Calvin Dawson is a nice running back fort the Warhawks and Kimson Lancaster is the man on offense. All five starters return on the offensive line. Josh Thompson is back as the heart and soul of the defense at rover. The defensive line returns several players with significant starting experience. Tulsa has just three starters back on offense, lead by Paul Smith at quarterback, and just one offensive lineman. Courtney Tennial appears to be a solid running back who should make big things happen. Chris Chamberlain and Nelson Coleman are two of the best linebackers in Conference USA. The Golden Hurricane are favored in this one, but playing at ULM, the Warhawks will spring the upset, as this is a tough spot for Tulsa to be breaking in a new offensive line. Louisiana-Monroe 23, Tulsa 21.

Buffalo at Rutgers (7:00): This game is not terribly intriguing, unless you are interesting in seeing what kind of yards Ray Rice can grind out against the 109th ranked rushing defense from a year ago. Another thing to watch in this game is how Mike Teel looks at quarterback for the Scarlet Knights. His development is the key for the Rutgers offense to be more balanced and make them a serious contender in the Big East for this year. The offensive line returns three starters, so some game experience won’t hurt them. The defense will be lead by Eric Foster at tackle. The secondary is also a strength. Buffalo should have a strength in the running game with James Starks at running back and four solid offensive lineman returning. Trevor Scott is the best player from the defensive end spot. This game should be nothing more than a tune-up for Rutgers. The development of Mike Teel may be the most exciting thing to watch in this game. Rutgers 56, Buffalo 7.

Miami, OH at Ball State (7:00): It’s the conference opener for two MAC teams, as the winner will jump out to an early lead in their division in the MAC. The RedHawks have four offensive linemen back, and they are hoping to open up holes for Brandon Murphy to run through. If he can stay healthy, then that should provide time for Mike Kokal to throw, something he did not have last year when he was sacked 49 times. The receivers are basically inexperienced. The defense will be lead by Joey Hudson, a solid middle linebacker. Clayton Mullins is another nice linebacker for Miami. For Ball State, a lot of the offense centers around Nate Davis and his solid skill set at quarterback. Darius Hill is an excellent target at tight end, while Dante Love is a speedy wide receiver. They return four starting offensive linemen. The defense ranked 115th in the country a year ago in total defense. Trey Lewis will try to help change the face of the defense and get things going for the Cardinals. Expect this one to be a bit of a shootout. With the Cardinals at home, Davis should help Ball State take care of business in a very entertaining opening game. Ball State 38, Miami, OH 35.

Southeast Missouri State at Cincinnati (7:00): Cincinnati will be looking to get the Brian Kelly era off on the right foot against a far inferior opponent. Dustin Grutza and Ben Mauk have been battling for starting quarterback duties, and the winner of the duel will get their hands on Kelly’s intricate passing offense. It appears that will be Mauk. Greg Moore is also a solid running back for the Bearcats. The defense was solid a year ago, and returns eight starters., including Haruki Nakamura, Mike Mickens, and Terrill Byrd. The defense should be solid while the offense tries to comprehend and understand the complex new offense. Southeast Missouri State is coming off a 4-7 season, but are lead by preseason All-Ohio Valley Conference linebacker, Adam Casper. They gave up just over 27 points per game, and scored 18. They like to run the ball, and Tim Holloman is a good running back. Still, the Redhawks must improve on the offensive side of the ball and keep the ball away from opposing offenses to keep the defense from getting worn down. The Bearcats should be a solid team and are getting ready for next Thursday’s showdown with Oregon State. This is a good first game. Cincinnati 45, Southeast Missouri State 6.

Murray State at Louisville (7:30, ESPNU): The beginning of the Steve Kragthorpe era in Louisville will at least get started to a nationally televised audience. Brian Brohm is of course the key piece to the offense from the quarterback position. He’ll be throwing to one of the best duos of receivers in the country in Mario Urrutia and Harry Douglas. The fun thing to watch may be to see the running game, lead by Anthony Allen and George Stripling. Allen should see most of the carries, and his ability to carry the ball in the new offense is a real key to the team. The defense also needs to show improvement under Kragthorpe. They need to prove they can stop the run. Willie Williams (a junior college transfer) could step in and pay immediate dividends. The Racers have Nathan Williams, one of the top defensive players in the Ohio Valley Conference, at linebacker. Zach Barnard is the team’s quarterback. Last year, they scored just under 18 points per game and allowed just over 35. They have lost 19 of 22 games overall, and haven’t won an OVC game in two years. The Racers are improving, but they are no competition for Louisville. The Cardinals can name their score. Louisville 63, Murray State 10.

Kent State at Iowa State (8:00): This could easily be one of those early season MAC upsets of a BCS conference team. Iowa State is totally rebuilding, while Kent State is one of the favorites in the MAC. How bare was the cupboard left with Dan McCarney leaving Iowa State? Things do not look so good for Gene Chizik’s first year as Cyclones head coach. Bret Meyer is a senior quarterback who can connect with senior receiver Todd Blythe to be one of the most dangerous combos in the Big Twelve. That will happen if the offensive line (with just one returning starter) and the running game (which is in bad need to become a legitimate threat) can keep the defenses from keying on that play alone. Alvin Bowen is a man among boys on defense…and the boys may be the ones playing around him. They ranked 105th in scoring defense a year ago, and return just five starters. However, the question is if they can slow down the Golden Flashes, not the Oklahoma’s and Nebraska’s (which will come later). Julian Edelman is a threat to run and throw the ball from the quarterback spot. With four offensive linemen back, he should have time to do both…and also hand the ball off to Eugene Jarvis. The defense returns nine starters, including linebacker Kevin Hogan. The Flashes are most people’s pick to win the MAC East, and amazingly, they are still relatively young. They were 1-10 two years ago, 6-6 last year, and are looking for big strides this year. A win like this would do wonders for them. With trips to Kentucky and Ohio State ahead on their schedule, they’ll have other chances, but this is their best shot at a BCS team this year. Look for them to take advantage of the inexperienced Cyclones and sour Chizik’s debut. Kent State 27, Iowa State 21.

UNLV at Utah State (8:00): These two teams are expected to finish at or very near the bottom of their two conferences, the Mountain West and WAC, respectively. Still, a win here could springboard the winner to a nice start and maybe something a little bit more. Mike Sanford is feeling the pressure to win now at UNLV. It looks like Beau Bell is back to being healthy, and one of the top linebackers in the Mountain West, which is huge for UNLV. The Rebels offense will rely on the athleticism of the wide receivers, with Aaron Straiten, Casey Flair and Ryan Wolfe all being excellent targets. If Rocky Hinds can stay healthy at quarterback, the offense should be improved. Utah State ranked 114th in total offense and 116th in total defense last year, while ranking 117th in both scoring offense and defense. Those are bad numbers. The defense should be better, lead by linebackers Paul Igboeli and Devon Hall. Kevin Robinson is one of the top receivers in the WAC for the Aggie quarterback (likely Leon Jackson III) to throw to. All in all, this is a game where neither team looks particularly good right now, but both are trying to build for a brighter future. Look for UNLV’s to start a little brighter. UNLV 24, Utah State 20.

Southeastern Louisiana at New Mexico State (8:00): The Hal Mumme Offensive Show continues for New Mexico State in their opener. As it does with all of Mumme’s teams, this one starts on offense, where Chase Holbrook will put up one of the best statistical years in the country. Chris Williams and AJ Harris are two of the top receivers in the WAC. They also return four offensive lineman, making this offense particularly dangerous. The defense must get better, and it looked a little better in the spring, raising hopes for the Aggies. Still, they were 105th in the country a year ago in scoring defense, and 99th in total defense. Those are bad numbers. Jay Lucas leads the running game for Southeastern Louisiana, while Tommy Connors is a stud in the secondary. They both made preseason All-Southland Conference first team. The Lions went 2-9 a year ago, including a 30-15 loss to New Mexico State on opening night a year ago. They gave up nearly 32 points per game, and scored 16.5 points per game. The Aggies need this win and the win against Arkansas-Pine Bluff on September 29 to have any shot at .500 and a bowl. They will play much better this year than they did last year against Southeastern Louisiana. New Mexico State 56, Southeastern Louisiana 24.

Weber State at Boise State (9:05): Boise State won a BCS game a year ago, and now are looking to build on that beginning with this one against Weber State. Ian Johnson is a darkhorse for the Heisman Trophy for the Broncos. He had a great game against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl to jump onto everyone’s radar, but the fact is, that he was nearly unstoppable for the vast majority of last year. Bush Hamdan and Taylor Tharp both should see action at quarterback. Marty Tadman has twelve career interceptions out of the Bronco secondary, while Mike T. Williams and Nick Schlekeway are two of the better defensive ends in the WAC. Weber State went 4-7 a year ago, and scored just over 18 points a game, while allowing just over 24. They played six games decided by a touchdown or less a year ago, and went 3-3 in those games. They also played Colorado State in the first game of the year, and were down just 16-6 in the third quarter, before losing 30-6. Trevyn Smith is a solid running back for the Wildcats that averaged over five yards per carry a year ago. Rio Stotler leads the team on the defensive line. Boise State is really just warming up for their trip to Washington next Saturday, and need to get the quarterback situation figured out in this one so that they can be sharp for the Huskies. That means this one may be closer than it should be, as they will use this as a glorified scrimmage. It will be surprisingly close at halftime, before the Broncos pour it on in the second half. Boise State 45, Weber State 14.

Utah at Oregon State (10:00, FSN): This may truly be the game of the day. It’s a late one, but one worth staying up to watch. Utah will be lead by Brian Johnson at quarterback, who missed last year due to injury. He will look to pick things back up where he left off. Matt Asiata and Darryl Poston are being counted on in the running game. Brent Casteel is one of the top receivers in the Mountain West, and four offensive linemen return. The defense is lead by Steve Tate and linebacker Joe Jiannoni. Louie Sakoda is being mentioned as one of the top kickers in the country. The quarterback battle at Oregon State is intense, as Lyle Moevao, Sean Canfield, and Ryan Gunderson all are vying for the starting job. One needs to step into the role and develop into the team’s leader, as this position is one of the few left vacant. Yvenson Bernard will run the ball, and the wide receivers (whether Sammie Stroughter plays or not) are solid playmakers. Four offensive linemen also return from a year ago. The defense is lead by Dorian Smith, Derrick Doggett, and Joey LaRoque. Alexis Serna is one of the top placekickers in the country. This team has all the makings of a potential contender in the Pac Ten. The Beavers head on the road to take on Cincinnati next Thursday, so a win here is a must to get things off on the right foot. This game looks to be a very interesting game, and both teams should be crisp, with both teams returning a lot of starters, particularly on offense. It looks like Oregon State should win at home against Utah, but this one will be closer than Beaver fans are hoping for. Oregon State 28, Utah 20.

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