Scout.com: Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Sept. 1, Part 2

Pac 10 Fearless Predictions, Sept. 1, Part 2

By Richard Cirminiello

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Aug 25, 2007

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Previews and Predictions for the Week 1 Pac 10 Games.

Pac 10 Saturday, September 1

Houston at Oregon 3:30 PM
Why to watch: Okay, Oregon, which one is it? Are you the program that started last season 4-0 or the one that careened to an embarrassing 0-4 finish? Losers of at least five games in four of the last five seasons, the Ducks are no longer the darlings of the Pac-10. They’ve got plenty to prove in 2007, and enough playmakers on offense to answer their growing numbers of critics. The key this fall will be the development of QB Dennis Dixon, who regressed badly in 2006, but has the athletic ability to be the point man in a potent offense. Expect more touches for Jonathan Stewart, a beast of a back with All-America potential that was underutilized last season. If you think Houston will be rebuilding because Kevin Kolb has graduated, think again. While the road to a Conference USA title will be much harder without the franchise quarterback, the Cougars return 15 starters from a team that won ten games last year, including a dizzying array of skill position talent. Beating Oregon on the road will send a clear signal that Houston’s ready for the next chapter in its evolution under Art Briles.
Why Houston might win: Led by senior linemen Jeff Akeroyd and Dustin Dickinson, the Cougars will create running lanes for burners Anthony Alridge and Randall Antoine against a Duck defense that’s noticeably soft up front. Alridge, in particular, has the 4.2 jets to quiet the crowd at Autzen Stadium in a flash. If Oregon can’t do a better job of protecting the ball in 2007, it’ll be ripe for the picking, especially against an opportunistic and experienced program, such as Houston. This Cougar team has the overall speed to run with the Ducks.
Why Oregon might win: In the first start of his college career, it’s asking way too much of either redshirt freshman Case Keenum or sophomore Blake Joseph to go on the road and engineer an upset at Oregon. The starter will have great weapons in Jeron Harvey and Donnie Avery, but both receivers will have trouble finding space against a tough Duck secondary that features rising corners Jairus Byrd and Walter Thurmond, and hard-hitting rover Patrick Chung. The Cougar defense is good by Conference USA standards, but doesn’t have the size or the speed to shut down Stewart and Jeremiah Johnson on the ground, or 6-5, 240-pound pass-catchers Jaison Williams and Ed Dickson.
Who to watch: All eyes will be on the play of Dixon, whose radical inconsistency was a microcosm of the Oregon program last season. A fast start in the opener will silence his critics for the time being, while doing wonders for his self-confidence. The opposite could set the tone for a really rough season.
What will happen: Count on lots of offense and plenty of big plays from the special teams. With Kolb still on campus, this would be a huge landmine for the Ducks. Without him around, Oregon will survive behind a monster game from Stewart and in a departure from last year, a victory in the turnover battle.
CFN Prediction: Oregon 35 … Houston 23 ... Line: Oregon -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 3

Arizona at BYU 5:30 PM Versus
Why to watch: After winning 11 games and a Mountain West title last year, BYU is determined to raise the bar in 2007. Arizona’s Mike Stoops, on the other hand, might be looking for a job if he can’t lead the program to the post-season in his fourth year. The Wildcat head coach took a page out of the BYU blueprint in the off-season, looking to Lubbock and hiring a Mike Leach disciple to run his feeble offense. It’s worked so far for the Cougars, who hired Robert Anae away from Texas Tech three years ago, and Stoops is hoping Sonny Dykes can be just as successful in Tucson. It won’t happen overnight, but the healthy return of strong-armed Willie Tuitama will help with the transition. It’s a tall order, but BYU will be right back in the conference title hunt if it can solve its backfield issues, specifically at quarterback, where John Beck has graduated. The heir apparent is Max Hall, who shares some of Beck’s cerebral qualities and actually prepped at the same high school, yet will be taking his first college snaps Saturday night. He didn’t stick around Arizona State long enough to play for a Territorial Cup, but beating Arizona in his debut won’t be any less satisfying.
Why Arizona might win: Hall’s first live action in four years will come against one of the Pac-10 best all-around defenses. That’s a recipe for short drives and turnovers. The Wildcats are especially strong in the back seven, led by all-league LB Spencer Larsen and Antoine Cason, an elite corner capable of completing walling off half the field. If Hall doesn’t get help from a rebuilt running game, he’ll have a hard time moving the ball through the air. This isn’t the team you want to start your career against.
Why BYU might win: It’s going to take a while before Arizona feels truly comfortable in an offense that’s a stark contrast from last season and doesn’t quite fit the team’s personnel. Until Tuitama and his young receivers are on the same page, expect lots of miscommunication and a fair amount of turnovers. BYU has the experience and opportunistic tendencies, especially at linebacker, to turn those mistakes into points. Don’t underestimate how tough it is to win in Provo, where head coach Bronco Mendenhall has made a special point of making sure the Cougars play up to their potential.
Who to watch: With BYU star tight end Jonny Harline gone, Hall needs to find a go-to receiver this weekend and beyond. Now that he’s returned from a two-year Church mission, WR Austin Collie is more than capable of filling the void if he can be consistent. Now a solid 6-2 and 210 pounds with deep skills, he was a find as a true freshman in 2004, hauling in 53 passes for 771 yards and eight touchdowns. On the other side, this is when Tuitama has to shine. Everyone has been waiting for him to become the superstar he appeared to be growing into two years ago, and a win here in the new offense would go a long way to setting the tone for the season.
What will happen: Both defenses will be noticeably ahead of the offenses, resulting in a low-scoring game for the second straight year. If won’t be a heart-stopper like last season, when the Wildcats pulled out a tough one with a bomb of a field goal, but it’ll be tight. BYU will win a battle of turnovers and field position, as Arizona shows serious growing pains with Dykes’ new offense.
CFN Prediction: BYU 23 … Arizona 16 ... Line: BYU -6
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 3
Final Score:

San Jose State at Arizona State 10:00 PM
Why to watch: Arizona State will begin the Dennis Erickson era with a sneaky-tough visit from a San Jose State program led by head coach Dick Tomey, the former Arizona head coach who produced one of 2006’s most stunning turnarounds. Erickson has a track record of impatience when rebuilding, and enough key returners on both sides of the ball to be the next best thing to USC in the Pac-10. How quickly the Sun Devils can escape mediocrity will depend heavily on the maturation of QB Rudy Carpenter, who struggled last year, appearing to try to do too much, after leading the nation in passing efficiency as a freshman. He’ll have the luxury of being surrounded by all-league RB Ryan Torain, a slew of veteran linemen, and an improving receiving corps that should make the offense explode. On the other side, the Spartans are looking to build on a nine-win season and come up with a huge win that could define the Tomey program. Many of the key pieces are back; this could be a lot better than it might appear.
Why San Jose State might win: Balanced offenses will move the ball on the Arizona State defense during stretches. The Spartans have a balanced offense. The combination of Adam Tafralis’ passes and the running of Yonus Davis and Patrick Perry will be a handful for a Sun Devil defense that’s a tad soft on the inside and potentially vulnerable through the air. The Spartans, particularly CBs Dwight Lowery and Christopher Owens, have become thieves under Tomey, so Carpenter needs to be extra careful with his reads. The SJSU defense will be ultra-aggressive trying to screw things up.
Why Arizona State might win: While the Spartans are a feisty bunch on defense, they lack the size and strength to hold up against a very physical and savvy Sun Devil line. Led by all-leaguers Mike Pollak and Brandon Rodd, ASU has six linemen with starting experience, who’ll keep Carpenter from having to leave the pocket and give lots of room for Torain to rumble for first downs. The skill guys get the headlines, but this game will be won at the line of scrimmage. By the fourth quarter, the Sun Devils should have the Spartan defensive front worn down.
Who to watch: Carpenter’s sophomore slump wasn’t all his fault. He got help from a young group of receivers that dropped too many passes and didn’t make enough big plays. That’ll change in 2007 with the development of Michael Jones on the outside and Kyle Williams in the slot, both of whom flash game-breaking skills. At 6-4 and 208 pounds, Jones has the size and ups to create a fascinating duel with Lowery. It would be extremely good for Carpenter to be sharp right away considering Colorado and its nasty defense is up next week.
What will happen: Alright, it was Stanford, but San Jose State bagged a Pac-10 opponent in 2006, so don’t expect it to be intimidated by the trip to the desert. This will be a competitive game past halftime, when Torain will take over, play keep away with the Spartans, and finish with a couple of scores and 150 yards of total offense.
CFN Prediction: Arizona State 31 … San Jose State 17... Line: Arizona State -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 2.5
Final Score:

Idaho at USC 10:15 PM FSN
Why to watch: Let’s just see how good this No. 1 ranked USC team really is. Of course the Trojans are supposed to win easily against an overmatched Idaho team led by new head man Robb Akey, but if this is really the dominant team it’s supposed to be, it needs to flex some early muscle before going to Nebraska in two weeks. This is a chance to see not just USC’s wave of proven stars in action, but also some of the rookies, such as RB Joe McKnight, if he’s healthy, and DE Everson Griffen, as benches empty early in a one-sided rout. For future purposes, special attention should also be given to C Matt Spanos, who’s replacing All-American Ryan Kalil, and the bevy of big, young receivers vying to replace Dwayne Jarrett and Steve Smith. It’s not like the Trojans’ need the advanced scouting, but defensive coordinator Nick Holt was Idaho’s head coach in 2004 and 2005, and recruited a number of the program’s current players. For the third time in the last four years, the Vandals will be breaking in a new head coach with Akey, the former Washington State defensive coordinator, all too familiar with the Trojans. Although he inherits a decent foundation on defense with CB Stanley Franks and LB David Vobora, a pair of NFL prospects, the coach will need unexpected help from the offense to match last year’s 4-8 record.
Why Idaho might win: Or, why Idaho might earn a moral win and cover the spread. The Vandals have a seasoned back seven and genuine playmakers in Franks and Vobora that can make a few third down stops and force the Trojans to punt more than they’re accustomed. The USC offense is loaded, but with a couple of new starters on the line and at receiver, it could be a few weeks before it’s a well-oiled juggernaut. As long as they get a little bit of early confidence, the Vandals might make this interesting for a few quarters.
Why USC might win: Aside from the obvious and astronomical gap in talent between the two programs, Idaho will be using a redshirt freshman quarterback named Nathan Enderle against the vicious USC defense. Uh-oh. As debuts go, it just doesn’t any more daunting than a trip to the Coliseum to face Sedrick Ellis, Rey Maualuga, Taylor Mays, and the rest of the Trojan D which appears to be the best in the Pete Carroll era. The USC second team would start for Idaho.
Who to watch: With Vidal Hazelton nursing a groin injury and Jamere Holland off the team, WR David Ausberry’s importance within the USC offense has been amplified since the start of fall camp. In fact, he’ll probably start along with Patrick Turner, giving Booty a pair of 6-5 targets to work with. Also in the spotlight will be the USC running game, that’ll try to figure out which of the sensational prospects are ready to be the stars. Call this game a bit of an audition.
What will happen: Fueled by a slew of turnovers, the Trojan defense will outscore the Vandal offense this weekend. In the equivalent of an exhibition game, Carroll and his staff will be thinking about the trip to Nebraska by the first couple of drives of the third quarter.
CFN Prediction: USC 52 … Idaho 9... Line: USC -45
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 1.5
Final Score:

Pac 10 Week One Fearless Predictions, Part 1