M-West Fearless Predictions, Sept. 1, Part 2

Previews and Predictions for the Week 1 Mountain West Games, Part 2

Mountain West
Air Force | BYU | Colorado State | New Mexico
San Diego State | TCU | UNLV | Utah | Wyoming

Mountain West Week One Fearless Predictions
 

Mountain West Saturday, September 1

South Carolina State at Air Force  2:00 pm
Why to Watch: It’s a new era for Air Force football as Troy Calhoun takes over for Fisher DeBerry to pump some life into the program. While the attack will still incorporate some of the option, the former Houston Texan offensive coordinator will mix things up a bit, and it’ll need time to figure out what it’s doing. It needs to get going now before dealing with a road trip to Utah next week. South Carolina State should be more than just a pushover with a good run defense that could stuff the Falcons for stretches.
Why South Carolina Might Win:  SCSU RB DeShawn Baker is a 100-yard runner waiting to happen with the motor to take advantage of the mediocre Falcon defensive front.  The Bulldog defense can tackle and is more than physical enough to hold up all game long if the Air Force offensive line is ready to roll. Basically, Calhoun has to teach everyone some new tricks.
Why Air Force Might Win:  Though there is a promise of more passing with Tom Horton’s addition to Air Force, it’s clear that the offense will still run the ball, and that’s a good thing.  The Bulldogs can hit, but they won’t be able to handle the precision of the Air Force attack when it plays around with the option.  SCSU can play well with teams that like to gut a defense up the middle, but Air Force likes to sprint wide and their secondary doesn’t have the necessary ability to keep up and tackle.  Although Air Force’s defense is slower than last year’s, it should be able to keep both Baker and QB Cleveland McCoy from pushing the ball deep. Stop the run, and you’ll stop the Bulldogs.
Who to Watch: Baker is the key to the game. He cranked out 1,289 yards and nine touchdowns with a nice blend of skills, highlighted by a run of six 100 yards games in the final seven, and he’ll be the workhorse the Falcons have to key on. If he’s cranking out five yards a carry, Air Force will be in trouble. For the Falcons, QB Shaun Carney has to bridge the gap between coaching staffs and styles. He’s a reliable veteran who can throw well, but it’ll be his running that’ll bail out the offense time and again. However, if he’s the offense, and no one is helping him out, it’s uh-oh time. The Falcons needs to unearth a few weapons before diving into Mountain West play.
What Will Happen: If you’re looking for the one possible upset between the college football classes, this might be it. The Air Force offense isn’t exactly going to be pretty, but it’ll be effective enough to get by in a hard-fought battle.
CFN Prediction: Air Force 31 ... South Carolina State 17 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 2

Virginia at Wyoming 2:00 PM
Why to Watch:  Rarely do ACC teams, or any other eastern bound teams for that matter, travel west for a non-conference game, but the Wahoos get on the plane for Laramie for a rare appearance at a MWC stadium.  This is a critical season for both programs and a win in the opener could lead to a much needed bowl berth. Simply put, Virginia can’t lose this game if it has any reasonable hopes for a winning season. Wyoming has been sensational, at times, at home under Joe Glenn and will treat this like a BCS game.
Why Virginia Might Win:  A multi-dimensional quarterback.  Virginia struggled to find a replacement for former quarterback Marques Hagans, but once Jameel Sewell took over, the Wahoos improved offensively.  Sewell’s ability to get out of the pocket and out on the perimeter will put the Cowboys’ defense in major trouble. The Cavalier defensive line should be able to dominate the mediocre UW offensive front. The more pressure on Karsten Sween, the better. He’ll make mistakes trying to make things happen.
Why Wyoming Might Win:  Playing at home, in the high altitude, gives the Cowboys a distinct advantage, especially against a team unfamiliar with playing in the thin air.  The Cowboys have deep ball threats, Hoot Marsh and Michael Ford, that can stretch the field and put pressure on a good, but retooling, Virginia secondary.  The Cavaliers won’t throw much, so the good UW linebacking corps should be able to tee off against the run.
Who to Watch: Virginia’s star defensive end Chris Long is flat out fun to watch, and he needs to be in Sween’s face all game long.  Relentless, passionate and disruptive, he’s being hailed as a potential top ten draft pick and could set the tone for a huge season, and generate a national buzz, if he plays like he’s supposed to.
What Will Happen: Sewell might get hot early, maintaining ball control with short and intermediate passing, but Wyoming will play at another level. After a tight first half, the Cowboys will clamp down on the Cavalier passing game and come up with two key turnovers to pull off the home upset.
CFN Prediction: Wyoming 23 … Virginia 20   Line: Virginia -3
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 2.5
Final Score:    

Baylor at TCU  6:00 PM
Why to watch: If TCU is to remain the trendy pick to be this year’s Boise State, it has to neatly dispose of Baylor and start getting ready for next week’s monumental trip down I-35 to face Texas.  Ranked No. 22 in both major pre-season polls, the Horned Frogs will be playing with a target on their backs throughout the season.  To be sure, there are holes to fill on offense, but RB Aaron Brown has a high ceiling, and the all-to-the-ball defense has the parts to be downright impervious for a second straight year.  Just how special the 2007 season becomes will depend heavily on the development of QB Andy Dalton, a rangy redshirt freshman who’ll be replacing the ultra-steady Jeff Ballard.  For what feels like the 20^th year in-a-row, Baylor is rebuilding, and looking up at a very deep Big 12 South.  The situation at quarterback is a mess, a real problem in the spread attack, and the running game will try to pick up the pieces after finishing last in the country in 2006.  Sophomore LB Joe Pawelek is a bright spot, but Baylor would need ten more players like him to get into the bowl discussion.
Why Baylor might win: The Bears get a break by facing a young quarterback that has unproven receivers and will be playing in his first game at this level.  With Pawelek and Nick Moore at linebacker, and Dwain Crawford and Jeremy Williams at safety, Baylor can pay less attention to the pass while focusing on stopping Brown.  Despite being a heavy favorite, TCU doesn’t have the offensive experience to run away and hide in this game.
Why TCU might win: The Frog D is every bit as good as advertised.  Nine starters are back, including the sensational pass-rush tandem of Tommy Blake and Chase Ortiz, from a unit that was No. 2 in total defense last year.  Expect the Bear passing game to sputter and cough under the intense pressure from the outside. With so much uncertainty at quarterback in Waco, and a non-existent running game, no one should be surprised if TCU hurls a shutout Saturday evening.
Who to watch: At least for the time being, Brown will be the most important—and exhausted—member of the TCU offense.  No longer a part of a committee, he’s got the talent as a runner and receiver to explode this fall, and even be a deep, deep Heisman sleeper if the Frogs keep winning. Even with the focus on the running game, all eyes will be on Dalton. His early development will be one of the keys to the Mountain West race. Everything is in place for TCU to be special, but it’ll all fall apart if Dalton isn’t decent.
What will happen: One Big 12 team down, and one to go.  With the defense predictably leading the way and creating turnovers, TCU will never be threatened.
CFN Prediction: TCU 30 … Baylor 13 ... Line: TCU -21
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 2

New Mexico at UTEP  10:00 PM
Why to Watch: New Mexico has a lot of respect to regain.  A victory against UTEP won’t exactly do it, but it’ll be a lot better than the start of last season when the Lobos lost to Portland State, and finished up with a loss San Jose State in the New Mexico Bowl, they need to come out with a big win in the border battle before dealing with in-state rival New Mexico State next week. UTEP also knows a little bit about disappointment, becoming a perennial dud under Mike Price despite lofty expectations. This year’s Miner team is flying under the radar, and that’s a good thing. A win would do wonders before facing road games at Texas Tech and New Mexico State over the following two weeks.
Why New Mexico Might Win: The Lobos should be able to pound the ball with a big line and a good stable of backs, led by Rodney Ferguson. UTEP’s biggest weakness, at least to start the season, will be the defensive line that’ll welcome in a slew of new starters to blend in with a still-developing linebacking corps. UTEP will eventually be solid on both sides of the ball, but the team needs seasoning. A lot of seasoning. The Lobos should be able to pound their way to the win.
Why UTEP Might Win:  Will New Mexico play up to its potential? There are loads of athletes on the defensive side of the ball, and the offense has the players in place to eventually pound the ball at will with the running game and be efficient through the air, but it never really came together last season, and it’s unlikely everything will be jelled in the season opener. If the Lobos get up early, UTEP still isn’t out of it thanks to a big passing game. But if New Mexico gets behind, even with a great receiving corps, it might not have the polished air attack to mount a comeback.
Who to Watch: After a long off-season of trying to find the replacement for Jordan Palmer, UTEP’s quarterback will be … by committee. Lorne Sam, the former Florida State Seminole, is a big, athletic talent who’ll see time at receiver here and there when he’s not under center. He’ll split time with redshirt freshman Trevor Vittatoe, who has all the tools and could be the electrifying playmaker the program can build around for the next four years.
What Will Happen: UTEP will eventually be excellent, but it’s going to take half the season before the team starts to shine. New Mexico will pound its way to the win, while getting a few big plays from the passing game along the way.
CFN Prediction: New Mexico 24… UTEP 20 ... Line: New Mexico -3
Must See Rating: (5 Hef wants you to take his place on The Girls Next Door, but you can’t because you have to watch this game - 1 Cavemen) ... 2.5

Mountain West Week One Fearless Predictions