Mountain
West
Air Force
|
BYU
|
Colorado State
|
New Mexico
San
Diego State |
TCU
|
UNLV
|
Utah
|
Wyoming
MWest Fearless Predictions
Sept. 1 | Sept. 15 | Sept.
22 |
Sept. 29
Oct. 6 | Oct.
13 |
Oct. 20 | Oct.
27 |
Nov. 3 | Nov.
10 |
Nov. 17 | Nov.
24
How are the picks so far? SU: 7-1 ... ATS:
3-3-1
Mountain West Fearless Predictions, Week
Two, Part 1
|
Mountain West Saturday, September 8 |
Air Force (1-0) at Utah
(0-1) 6:00
PM
Why to watch: Things
couldn't have gone any better for Air
Force last week in a 34-3 win over South
Carolina State, and they couldn't have
gone any worse for Utah in a 24-7 loss.
The Utes hung tough against the Beavers,
but struggled after losing top RB Matt
Asiata for the year with a broken leg,
and star QB Brian Johnson for a few
weeks with a separated shoulder. With
UCLA to come next week, Utah must win
its Mountain West opener to likely avoid
an 0-3 start. Yeah, Air Force might have
beaten a bad FCS team, but it was still
a good showing for new head coach Troy
Calhoun and the new offense. With TCU
and BYU to follow, a win over Utah would
generate a big Mountain West buzz before
those showdowns.
Why Air Force might win:
Utah isn't the same team without
Johnson. Backup QB Tommy Grady is a
veteran in the system, but he doesn't
have Johnson's mobility, and as shown
with a 9-of-24, 59-yard
performance in relief against Oregon
State, he's got a lot to prove. Air
Force has a good enough linebacking
corps to keep the average Ute ground
game from controlling the action, so if
Grady isn't on, Calhoun has a great shot
at his second win in as many tries.
Why Utah might win: Utah
isn't South Carolina State. The Ute
receiving corps wasn't able to do much
against Oregon State, but it should be
able to rip up a Falcon secondary that's
going to struggle with big, talented
targets. If Air Force can't generate any
consistent pass rush, and Grady has
time, there will be several big pass
plays. Utah can get back into the game
if Air Force gets up, but Air Force
likely won't be able to make a comeback
if the Utes take a big early lead.
Who to watch: Basically, Utah
lost its two offensive stars it was
going to build around. Asiata was a star
JUCO recruit who was expected to do big
things for the Utah running game. Ray
Stowers got the bulk of the work late
against Oregon State, but was only able
to manage 26 yards. Utah needs some
balance to help out Grady, and the
powerful Stowers, who isn't going to
make anyone miss but will run over
people.
What will happen: Air
Force will find the road a bit tougher
this week. Shaun Carney and the Falcons
will come up with more of a passing game
than normal, but the Ute defense will
take away the ground attack. Grady will
bounce back with a big performance.
CFN Prediction:
Utah
26 ... Air Force 16
... Line: Utah -8
Must See Rating: (5
Mad Men - 1 Chelsea
Lately) ... 2.5
Final Score:
San Diego State (0-0) at
Washington State (0-1)
7:00 EST
Why to watch:
For almost three quarters,
Washington State hung with
seventh-ranked Wisconsin in
Madison before fading in the
42-21 loss. While no one in
Pullman cares to hear about
moral victories anymore, the
Cougars held up relatively in a
game they weren’t supposed to
win. Beginning with this week’s
annual pilgrimage to Seattle,
the key over the next two weeks
will be to pick up a couple of
wins and iron out some glaring
defensive breakdowns before
Pac-10 play begins. Wazzu won’t
have access to any recent film
of this week’s opponent since
San Diego State was idle last
weekend. Now in their second
season under Chuck Long, the
Aztecs will lean on the offense
early on as the defense adjusts
to wholesale changes. A Pac-10
road game will be a great
barometer of whether the program
is making any progress after
going a disappointing 3-9 in
2006.
Why San Diego State might win:
The Aztecs’ best reason for
optimism in 2007 is that
strong-armed QB Kevin O’Connell
is healthy again, and his
receiving corps has the size and
experience to be a very tough
assignment. Last year’s top
pass-catchers, Brett Swain and
Chaz Schilens, along with
converted quarterback Darren
Mougey will be a handful for a
retooled Wazzu secondary that
made Tyler Donovan look like a
Manning Award favorite last
weekend. A 6-6, 235-pounder
with good speed, Mougey figures
to be a match up nightmare for
the undersized Cougar defenders.
Why Washington State might
win: If San Diego State
couldn’t stop anyone last year,
what can be expected of a unit
that’s working in seven new
starters? The Aztecs won’t get
any breaks against a Washington
State offense that’s led by
senior quarterback Alex Brink
and has terrific speed at the
skill positions. With Dwight
Tardy busting through big holes,
Brandon Gibson and Michael
Bumpus schooling the Aztec
secondary, Darryl Blunt won’t
punt more than twice Saturday
night.
Who to watch: If San
Diego State commits too many
resources to Gibson and Bumpus,
Brink will make it pay by going
underneath to TE Jed Collins, a
6-2, 250-pound wrecking ball
with some of the softest hands
on the roster.
What will happen: San
Diego State will move the ball
this season, but it could take
all year to fix the problems on
the defensive side of the ball.
Washington State will capitalize
on the opportunity, cranking out
400 balanced yards en route to
its first win of the new season.
CFN Prediction:
Washington State 42 … San
Diego State 23
... Line: WSU -16.5
Must See Rating: (5
Mad Men - 1 Chelsea
Lately) ... 2
Final Score:
New Mexico State
(1-0) at New Mexico (0-1)
9:30 PM
Why to watch: New Mexico
has won the last four in the in-state
rivalry, but New Mexico State started to
close the gap last year in a tight 34-28
loss, and now the Aggies are hoping this
is the season when things change for
good. Hal Mumme's high-octane offense
didn't exactly explode as expected
against SE Louisiana last week, "only"
cranking out 442 yards, but it showed
more balance than it has since the
attack shifted styles. A win over the
Lobos would mark the program's first
four-game winning streak since 2002,
while New Mexico needs the win before
making the trip to deal with Arizona.
After losing a tough, ugly 10-6 game to
UTEP, the Lobos can't afford a loss if
they have any real dreams of going
bowling.
Why New Mexico State might win:
Does UNM have the firepower to keep up
if the Aggies go on a run? Well, yes,
but it's hit or miss if all the parts
are working. Nothing clicked against
UTEP as the Lobos couldn't generate any
consistent offense against a mediocre
Miner defense. While the Aggies aren't
going to stop anyone cold, they had a
nice first game with a more aggressive
style that got into the backfield early
and often. At the moment, New Mexico
needs time for all the good skill
players to produce, and NMSU might not
provide it.
Why New Mexico might win:
With a strong secondary, a decent pass
rush, a pounding running game, and big,
fast receivers, the Lobos have an almost
perfect combination of strengths for a
team like NMSU. The Aggie offense is all
about controlling the tempo, but if
Rodney Ferguson and Donovan Porterie are
cranking out long drives behind the big
offensive line, NMSU might have a hard
time establishing a rhythm.
Who to watch: All eyes
are on NMSU QB Chase Holbrook to see if
he can bounce back from a mediocre
outing. Yes, the Aggies won with ease,
and yes, Holbrook threw four touchdown
passes, but he also threw four
interceptions. The running game that was
established last week won't necessarily
be there this time around, so if
Holbrook isn't smoking, New Mexico might
have an easy win.
What will happen: New
Mexico's defense will force four
turnovers, and the the offense will
break out of its funk to do just enough
to overcome a late Aggie rally. NMSU
will have its chances to pull it off
late, and will come up just short.
CFN Prediction:
New Mexico 31 ...
New Mexico State
27
... Line: New Mexico
-10.5
Must See Rating: (5
Mad Men - 1 Chelsea
Lately) ... 2.5
Final Score:
Wisconsin
(1-0) at UNLV (1-0)
10:00 PM
Why to Watch: UNLV
tries to put itself on the
national map with what would be
the biggest win by far of the
Mike Sanford era, while
Wisconsin looks to avoid the
mega-upset before getting a
layup against The Citadel. These
two teams have a bit of a
history with the Badgers winning
19-3 in 2004 to avenge a
stunning 23-5 loss in 2003 that
was the only blip in a 6-1
start. Wisconsin shook off the
first half rust to get past
Washington State 42-21, and now
it tried to keep the offensive
balance going, while hoping for
an impressive blowout to
maintain its lofty ranking. UNLV
could be just looking to survive
before facing Colt Brennan and
Hawaii next week.
Why
Wisconsin Might Win: UNLV
struggled to beat Utah State,
one of the worst teams in
America, last week. The Rebel
offense, an inconsistent sore
spot throughout last year,
struggled to get going, and now
it faces a Badger defense that's
not going to let down after
having a hard time tackling
against the Cougars. If the UW
linebackers have a good game,
this won't be close.
Why
UNLV Might Win: The Rebels
have made a point to be more
active and find ways to make
more big plays on defense this
year, and things started out
well against Utah State with
four sacks and six tackles for
loss. To have a chance to keep
it close against the Badgers,
UNLV has to generate consistent
pressure into the backfield,
while offensively, the offense
has to control the clock. The
longer the defense is off the
field against a UW offensive
line that lives to pound on
defenses in the second half, the
better.
Who to Watch:
With Rocky Hinds apparently
still having problems from a
knee injury suffered last year,
the UNLV offense has been turned
over to Travis Dixon, a nice
prospect who did a little of
everything against Utah State.
While he's hardly an
accomplished passer, completing
12 of 20 throws for 141 yards,
he ran 22 times for 129 yards
and a touchdown. He has to use
all his weapons and he has to
spread things out, or Wisconsin
will focus solely on stopping
him, and will succeed.
What Will Happen:
Wisconsin's defense isn't the
type that'll let young new
quarterbacks run wild. The
Badger offense will have way too
much balance with QB Tyler
Donovan coming up with his
second straight impressive game.
CFN Prediction:
Wisconsin 40 ...
UNLV 17...
Line: Wisconsin -24
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1
Chelsea Lately)
... 2
Final Score:
Mountain West Fearless Predictions, Week
Two, Part 1