MAC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 8, Part 2

Previews and Predictions for the Week 2 MAC Games, Part 2

MAC
East  Akron | B. Green | Buffalo | Kent State | Miami Univ. | Ohio | Temple
West  Ball State | Central Mich | Eastern Mich | No Illinois | Toledo | WMichigan

MAC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 15 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 9-3 ... ATS: 7-4

MAC Fearless Predictions, Week Two, Part 1
 

MAC Saturday, September 8

Ball State (0-1) at Eastern Michigan (0-1) 3:00 PM
Why to Watch: Ball State appeared to be all ready to become the MAC's hot team, and it still might be, and then Miami's Brandon Murphy ran for a touchdown in the final moments to beat the Cardinals 14-13 to make this a must-win. Eastern Michigan is searching for any sign of life in the Jeff Genyk era. On a six-game losing streak and coming off a 27-3 loss to Pitt, a win over Ball State could change everything. Getting wins for both programs has been tough. Getting MAC wins has been especially tough. The losing coach will be on a serious hot seat and it's not even mid-September.
Why Ball State Might Win: Eastern Michigan hasn't put up much in the way of offense over the last few years, and showed absolutely nothing against the Panthers with 145 yards of total offense and nothing on the ground. Ball State isn't exactly a defensive juggernaut, but it was strong against Miami in the opener, especially against a not-that-bad RedHawk passing game. There aren't a lot of EMU weapons, so if BU can get up early and force the Eagles to start throwing, it's over. Then again ...
Why Eastern Michigan Might Win: .... for supposedly having the MAC's most dangerous attack, Ball State didn't exactly show it off last week. The Eagle secondary got dinked and dunked on by Pitt, but it didn't give up a whole bunch of yards. Ball State won't be able to consistently run the ball, meaning Nate Davis will have to throw and throw some more. While that might not necessarily be a good thing, this is a quick EMU D with ten returning starters from last year that should come up with a few turnovers.
Who to Watch: Someone, anyone has to emerge on the EMU offense to help out QB Andy Schmitt. Schmitt completed 16 of 27 throws against Pitt, but they didn't go anywhere with only 106 passing yards. Pierre Walker has to come through as a  dangerous runner, a receiver has to bust off a big play, something. If it's not going to happen this week, it's going to be another very, very long year.
What Will Happen: Davis won't go off, but he'll have an efficient day, while the EMU offense will struggle yet again. It'll be close until Davis finds a groove in the second half.
CFN Prediction: Ball State 31 ... Eastern Michigan 21 ... Line: Ball State -7
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2
Final Score: 

Southern Illinois (1-0) at Northern Illinois (0-1)  7:30 PM
Why to Watch: This isn't your typical FCS vs. FBS (sorry to start using those terms now) matchup. SIU is good enough to beat most of the bottom 25 FBS teams (despite going 2-20 all-time against the big league), and came up with a win over Indiana last year. NIU fans will remember 2004 when the Salukis almost pulled off the upset in a 23-22 NIU win. This is a good team with a potent offense that's coming off a 59-14 win over Quincy, while NIU struggled to get anything going in a 16-3 loss to Iowa. Technically, this should begin a run of breather games for the Huskies with Eastern Michigan, Idaho and Temple wrapped around Central Michigan, but again, SIU isn't a pushover..
Why Southern Illinois Might Win: NIU needs this game to find an offensive identity, and it's hoping to find it this week. While NIU will be experimenting with a more balanced attack than in the past, and will be trying to fill the void left by the loss of Garrett Wolfe, SIU has a nice ground game that should crank out a few nice drives early on. The offensive line is good enough to matchup, and control the Huskie defensive front.
Why Northern Illinois Might Win: NIU did an extremely nice job of stopping Iowa last week. Yeah, it was a loss, but the secondary all but shut down the depleted Hawkeye receiving corps, while the run defense wasn't completely torched, even though it allowed 250 yards. SIU won't be able to put up points in bunches on this group, while the Saluki defensive line will be far, far easier to deal with after facing an elite Hawkeye front four.
Who to Watch: NIU is Dan Nicholson's team now, and he has to provide a spark for the passing attack, while being efficient enough to keep things moving on third downs. A surprise when thrown to the Wolves as a freshman, and a disappointment when he got his chances as a sophomore, he didn't start out his junior year well with three interceptions, and 214 yards, in the loss to Iowa. He's been around long enough to know the system, and he has to use this game to start making everyone around him better.
What Will Happen: SIU will have a lead far later than NIU would like, and then the Huskie defense will clamp down and the offense, which will sputter for the first half, will finally start to produce for the first time all year.
CFN Prediction: Northern Illinois 20 ... Southern Illinois 17 ... Line:  No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 1.5
Final Score:   

Kent State (1-0) at Kentucky (1-0)  6:00 PM GamePlan
Why to Watch: Don't look ahead to Louisville .. Don't look ahead to Louisville. All Kentucky has heard about ever since its offense made the program relevant has been Louisville. After years of getting pounded by its in-state rival, losing four straight including an ugly 59-28 blasting last year, UK fans are dying to get the Cardinals in Commonwealth next week. But first, UK has to deal with a sneaky-tough Kent State team with a nice defense and a decent running game. The Golden Flashes spoiled Gene Chizik's debut at Iowa State with a 23-14 win in Ames, and they're not going to be freaked out by going on the road to face a BCS league team.
Why Kent State Might Win: It can't be overstated; Kentucky's head is firmly on the Louisville game. Oh sure, the players and coaches are all paying lip service to Kent State, but the media has started looking ahead, and it's not letting UK forget about it. Kent State's secondary is good enough to keep the high-powered UK passing game from exploding, while the running game is strong enough to keep the Wildcat offense off the field.
Why Kentucky Might Win: The Golden Flashes might be solid, but they're not explosive. If the Wildcats can get up early and force KSU to start throwing, this won't be pretty, even though the UK secondary is still suspect. To pull off an upset like this, KSU needs everything to go right, and it'll be badly outplayed on special teams and won't generate enough pressure on Andre Woodson to slow down the air show.
Who to Watch: Kent State has one of the MAC's more interesting backs in sophomore Eugene Jarvis, a 5-5 speedster who can be a surprisingly durable workhorse. He ran for 113 yards and a touchdown against Iowa State, and will also have to be worried about coming out of the backfield in the passing game. He needs to run 20 times or more and keep the clock rolling. If UK can shut him down, this likely won't be a close game.
What Will Happen: Edelman will keep KSU in the game for about a half with a few brilliant plays that'll make the UK fans shift in their seats, and then Woodson will come up with two big passes and the Wildcats will pull away in the third.
CFN Prediction: Kentucky 35 ... Kent State 20 ... Line:  Kentucky -14
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2.5
Final Score:   

Ohio (1-0) at UL Lafayette (0-1) 7:00 PM
Why to Watch: While this won't even register a blip on the national radar, it could become one of the best of the non-BCS games, especially if you like running games. Ohio, the defending MAC East champion, had few problems against Gardner-Webb in the season opener and needs this win with a date at Virginia Tech to follow. Looking to be more than just a running team, the Bobcats got their passing attack working a little bit and will try to keep the balance going. UL Lafayette has hopes of winning the Sun Belt title with a good offense and just enough defense to possibly get to a bowl for the first time ever. The Ragin' Cajuns pounded the ball on South Carolina in a 28-14 loss, and with McNeese State coming up, will likely be 2-1 going into the showdown with Troy with a win this week.
Why Ohio Might Win: If the Bobcats can throw, the offense will hum. ULL has a decent, aggressive run defense, but the secondary is more than just suspect. South Carolina was able to throw at will, and while Ohio doesn't have a high-octane passing game, any efficiency early on would make the safeties stay back a bit. Any extra room for RB Kalvin McRae is a plus.
Why UL Lafayette Might Win: Ohio will run the ball with McRae, but ULL will throw several options at the Bobcats. Tyrell Fenroy had a nice day against a good South Carolina run defense, with 88 yards, but it was QB Michael Desormeaux's 116 yards that gave the Gamecocks fits. On the other side of the ball, Ohio might try to throw the ball to create some balance, but it doesn't have the receivers to do any real damage.
Who to Watch: Can Ohio senior Brad Bower really throw the ball consistently? He completed 15 of 25 passes for 180 yards and a touchdown against Gardner-Webb, and while ULL might not have a rock of a pass defense, it's an upgrade. For Ohio to have any hopes of winning the MAC title, Bower has to develop into a playmaker, and it has to start with this game.
What Will Happen: Chalk this one up to the home field advantage, whatever edge ULL has. The Ragin' Cajuns will have more rushing options and will do more on the ground to squeak out a tough win. Basically, whoever runs the ball better will get the W.
CFN Prediction: UL Lafayette 27 ... Ohio 24 ... Line: Ohio -4
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2
Final Score:   

Indiana (1-0) at Western Michigan (0-1) 8:00 PM ESPNU
Why to Watch: If the MAC wants an honest shot at beating a team from a big league, this is it. Indiana beat Western Michigan 39-20 in last year's opener, and now it goes for a 2-0 start before facing Akron and Illinois at home. While the Illini have improved, this road date in Kalamazoo might be the biggest obstacle to going 4-0. Western Michigan is a much better team than it showed in the 62-24 opening day loss at West Virginia, at least that's what it's hoping, but with Missouri coming up, a loss to the Hoosier will likely mean an 0-3 start before things ease up for the MAC contenders. The two offenses are exciting, and the two teams are relatively even.
Why Indiana Might Win: While IU QB Kellen Lewis isn't West Virginia's Pat White, he's a dangerous, mobile quarterback who led the Hoosiers with 59 rushing yards and a touchdown, and completed 12 of 21 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns, against Indiana State. WMU can't load up against the run, like it tried to do early against WVU, or the dangerous IU receiving corps will make big plays deep. It can't totally commit the safeties to stopping the deep ball, or Lewis will run.
Why Western Michigan Might Win: The jury is still out on the Indiana defense. The secondary is good thanks to a great pair of corners, but WMU should be able to run the ball if it doesn't panic and keeps pounding away. The Broncos weren't able to test out its offensive balance against West Virginia after getting down, but it should be able to mix it up a little. Also look for more of a pass rush on Lewis than the Broncos were able to generate last week.
Who to Watch: The Western Michigan quarterback situation is now in question again. Tim Hiller, after a year off to recover from knee surgery, got the start against the Mountaineers and completed 16 of 25 passes for 160 yards. Thomas Peregrin stepped in and completed nine of 17 passes for 71 yards and a score. No matter who starts, there will be a bit of a quarterback controversy for the rest of the year.
What Will Happen: Western Michigan will generate more pressure and be far more effective than it was last week, but the deep passing of Indiana, and a mistake-free game from Lewis, will mean a tight IU win.
CFN Prediction: Indiana 31 ... Western Michigan 30... Line:  Western Michigan -3
Must See Rating: (5 Mad Men - 1 Chelsea Lately) ... 2.5
Final Score: 

MAC Fearless Predictions, Week Two, Part 1