Instant Analysis: Middle Tenn-Louisville

Michigan coach Lloyd Carr shouldn't feel so lonely tonight. Other top ten teams are displaying marked vulnerability against vastly inferior competition.

It's hard to imagine a team scoring 58 points, only to face a severe early-season crisis. But that's exactly where No. 8 (not for long) Louisville stands after a shockingly inept defensive performance against the inspired Blue Raiders of Middle Tennessee. The visitors played gallantly and often brilliantly, but with all due respect to their abilities, the fact is that Middle Tennessee got dusted off the week before by Florida Atlantic, not exactly a football powerhouse. Louisville's 16-point margin of victory was just three points more than FAU's final spread (27-14) against Middle Tennessee on Sept. 1. That tells you how alarmed first-year head coach Steve Kragthorpe should be about his Cardinals.

How bad was Louisville's defense? The Cards conceded three scoring plays of 71 yards or more; two other scoring plays of 39 and 23 yards; 10 scrimmage plays of at least 20 yards; 555 total yards; and 35 first-half points. Middle Tennessee players performed well, but even then, some of the Blue Raiders' biggest plays should have been prevented. A big-gainer occured for MTSU when, on a 3rd and 2, the Cardinals failed to line up properly, leaving a receiver uncovered. A quick snap and equally quick flip resulted in a gain of over 50 yards. Later in the game, a number of Louisville defenders were dragging down Blue Raider running back Philip Tanner, only to let go of a sure tackle. In a scene shockingly reminiscent of Tommie Frazier's run through several spineless Florida defenders in the 1996 Fiesta Bowl, Tanner somehow slipped through the arms and bodies of red-shirted pursuers on his way to a 79-yard touchdown run. Louisville was beyond bad... and by the most reasonably conservative standards.

In the wake of this contest, Michigan and Texas--teams that played miserable football in week one--have now been joined by a third highly-ranked team that played horribly in an early-September home game against an inferior club. Michigan didn't escape disaster last Saturday, but lost in the shadows of the Wolverines' loss was the fact that Texas barely survived Arkansas State. Tonight, Louisville came perilously close to sweating out the final minutes against a severely flawed Sun Belt Conference opponent. The message is clear... or at least it should be: no one is safe. Any team can have a very bad performance, the kind of clunker--on one or both sides of the ball--that can lead to danger if not outright defeat. In college football, kids can freeze and become paralyzed, leading to massive tsunamis of shifting momentum and on-field volatility. In early-season games--even at home--a lack of polish can lead to pronounced fluctuations and upheavals in live-action situations. Lloyd Carr is anything but unique in college football--the only difference is that his players didn't find enough toughness to prevail when playing at their worst. Texas managed to survive a horrible performance, and tonight, Louisville also did enough to stave off defeat. But the larger story remains: wacky and weird events will characterize many early-season college football games.

The Cardinals racked up 58 points and 729 total yards against Middle Tennessee, but with Kentucky looming next, tonight's victory is a hollow one for Louisville--the reigning Orange Bowl champions are in trouble. Kragthorpe will need to prove his worth in the upcoming week of practice if this national title contender is to have the kind of season people are expecting in the Commonwealth.