Rising:
Oregon: More like rocketing after taking Michigan behind the woodshed, and on the road no less.
Washington: In a normal week, they’d top the list. Great win against Boise.
ASU: Solid win over Colorado, although they need to work on the penalties and turnovers.
Washington St: SD State isn’t very good, but the Cougars still played really well against them.
Hovering:
Arizona: Not a good showing against NAU; they’d be falling if they hadn’t already been so awful in week 1.
Falling:
UCLA: Not a pretty win against BYU, although the Cougars are decent, so it’s hardly a crisis situation.
Cal: Yes, they had the altitude, and yes, it was a letdown game, but this game was still not a good one for the Bears. They need to do a lot better in future weeks if they want to keep winning.
Oregon St: Just a disgracefully bad game against the Bearcats.
@ UCLA (-7) 27, BYU 17
(my pick: @ UCLA 31, BYU 13)
UCLA came out on fire in this game, dominating the first half to go to the locker room up 20-3, but BYU roared by in the second half to cut the lead to 20-17 before the Bruins were able to get a late touchdown to make the score look better.
What to take from this:
This was a really, really not good effort by the Bruins. If it wasn’t for UCLA’s early pick six, this game goes right down to the wire. Nothing really worked well for the Bruins, not the passing game, not the running game, and not the defense. Maybe BYU is a lot better than anyone thinks, and maybe this was simply an off game for the Bruins. But if not, then there are serious cracks appearing in the armor. UCLA will get a chance to prove things one way or another when the travel to Salt Lake City to take on a Utah team reeling from the loss of their starting quarterback and running back. Things had better be functioning on a higher level in that game or they are going to be in serious trouble.
Cal (-14) 34, @ Colorado St 28
(my pick: Cal 35, @ Colorado St 27)
This was an exciting game pretty much from start to finish. Early in the fourth quarter, Cal was able to make enough big plays to seem to have put the game away, but the Rams made back to back touchdowns to give themselves a late chance to win. In the end, though, Cal was able to move the ball and run the clock all the way down to escape with a win.
What to take from this:
This was the second straight week where the defense didn’t do a whole lot, and the team won entirely because of big plays (in this case, the three turnovers plus a few big plays on offense). It’s great that they’re able to get the big plays when it matters, but they need to do a much better job the rest of the time if they want to keep winning. This is a warning sign, and if they don’t heed it, they’ll get knocked off sooner rather than later.
@ Cincinnati 34, Oregon St (-3.5) 3
(my pick: Oregon State 21, @ Cincinnati 14)
This was an ugly game from start to finish for the Beavers. In the first half, they looked like they had a shot, but beat themselves with two turnovers and a missed field goal to go into the locker room down. And in the second half, they simply imploded, doing absolutely nothing on offense and just not having enough left in the tank on defense to make up for lousy field position and constant chances for the Bearcats.
What to take from this:
The quarterback situation is an absolute disaster, and it’s clear that the running game can’t pick up all the slack when teams stack the box and dare the Beavers to throw. Unless the defense improves by leaps and bounds to turn every game into a defensive struggle, this is going to be a very long year.
@ Arizona (NL) 45, NAU 24
This was a mediocre effort by the Wildcats against a lousy team. They need to step it up in a big way or they’re going to lose to New Mexico next week.
@ Arizona 42, NAU 10
Oregon 39, @ Michigan (-7) 7
(my pick: Oregon 35, @ Michigan 31)
This game was all Oregon, practically from snap one. The Ducks steamrolled Michigan, blazing by them through the air, running them over on the ground, and dominating on defense. Mike Hart did well for the Wolverines, but that was it, as Oregon completely dominated every other phase of the game.
What to take from this:
It’s safe to say that this is going to be an incredibly difficult team to beat. The Ducks have the speed to blow by teams that aren’t ready for them, and Dennis Dixon really came into his own today, throwing great, running great, and not making any mistakes. And against a Michigan offense that has a tremendous amount of talent, Oregon’s defense did a fantastic job. This is clearly a top 25 team, and probably top 15 based on what we saw here today.
@ Washington (+3) 24, Boise St 10
(my pick: Boise St 28, @ Washington 24)
This was a bit of a weird game, with all of the points scored coming in the first half. The Huskies came out early and took control, going up 14-0 quickly and never coming close to relinquishing the lead.
What to take from this:
The Washington defense did a solid job against a dangerous team. They gave up a fair amount of yards, but they held Ian Johnson to only 80 yards rushing, and they ended up with four turnovers on the day. This team is surprising at every turn, and really seems to be on a roll now.
@ Arizona State (-15.5) 33, Colorado 14
(my pick: @ ASU 31, Colorado 17)
The Sun Devils got themselves into early trouble, going down 14-0 quickly, but recovered in the second quarter to go into the locker room up, and padded their lead in the third quarter to turn a close game into a minor rout.
What to take from this:
The good news is that the defense played really well, especially against the run. The bad news is all of the turnovers and penalties. 130+ yards of penalties and three turnovers are a disaster, and if they keep that pace up, they aren’t going to be able to out-talent many other teams like they were able to do here.
@ Washington St (-14.5) 45, San Diego St 17
(my pick: @ Washington State 34, SD St 14)
For a while, the Aztecs were able to make this a game, matching Wazzu score for score during the first quarter to end tied 10-10. However, after that it was all Cougars, as their offense exploded for over 600 yards and 45 points, and SD State simply wasn’t able to keep up the pace.
What to take from this:
Wazzu’s passing game looked absolutely fantastic here. This was a game where Alex Brink was on fire, and you know there will be more. They still have some issues, like a off and on running game and an off and on defense, but after today this looks like a team that is going to be really nasty to try and take down.
Pac-10 Games Record:
This Week: 6-2 SU, 4-3 ATS
Season: 14-3 SU, 9-7 ATS
National Games of the Week:
@ LSU (-11) 48, Virginia Tech 7
(my pick: @ LSU 17, Virginia Tech 14)
LSU came out and completely waxed the Hokies. This is an extremely good football team.
South Carolina 16, @ Georgia (-3.5) 12
(my pick: South Carolina 21, @ Georgia 17)
In a game where everyone seemed to like the Bulldogs, South Carolina came out and got a great performance from their defense to come away with the upset.
@ Oklahoma (-10.5) 51, Miami 13
(my pick: @ Oklahoma 28, Miami 10)
Oklahoma came out and completely waxed the Hurricanes. This is an extremely good football team.
@ Texas (-9.5) 34, TCU 13
(my pick: @ Texas 31, TCU 14)
TCU came out and gave an incredible effort in the first half, going into the locker room up 10-0, but after that it was all Texas, as they made a huge run in the second half to put this game away by the middle of the fourth quarter.
USF 26, @ Auburn (-6.5) 23 (OT)
(my pick: @ Auburn 21, USF 14)
This was an extremely ugly game that wasn’t well-played by either side, lowlighted by Auburn’s constant turnovers and USF’s lousy kicking. But when push came to shove, the Bulls had just a little bit more and were able to come away with the upset win.
National Games Record:
This Week: 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS
Season: 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS
Bad Lines
Notre Dame +17.5
Missed by 3.5 points
Nebraska -8
Missed by 5 points
Tennessee -10
Covered by 10 points
Bad Lines Record
This week: 1-2
Season: 1-2
My Top 25:
Potential and preseason rankings remain a factor for some teams, mainly because we haven’t seen much one way or the other, but it’s definitely taking a backseat to actual results. By the end of September I’ll be able to judge everyone by what they’ve actually done on the field.
1) LSU (2-0): vs VT: W 48-7
After how great they’ve looked so far this year, they’ve clearly earned this spot.
2) Oklahoma (2-0) vs Miami: W 51-13
3) USC (1-0): BYE
The Trojans have a fantastic amount of talent, but they haven’t proven anything yet, and LSU and Oklahoma have played too well to give any benefit of the doubt before we’ve seen what USC can do.
4) Georgia Tech (2-0): vs AA: W 69-14
No one lower than here has done more than the Yellow Jackets, and they’ve clearly shown they belong at the top until proven otherwise.
5) WV (2-0): vs Marshall: W 48-23
They’re very, very close to Tech right now.
6) Texas (2-0): vs TCU: W 34-13
Solid win over a good TCU team. They might be higher if they hadn’t been so bad in week one.
7) Penn St (2-0): vs ND: W 31-10
They haven’t had great competition, but boy they’ve played well.
8) South Carolina (2-0): @ UGA: W 16-12
Not a pretty win, but a road win over Georgia still means a lot.
9) UCLA (2-0): vs BYU: W 27-17
Less than impressive win over BYU, but with a lot of other top teams struggling, they don’t fall much.
10) Louisville (2-0): vs MTSU: W 58-42
They’re here on rep rather than on production. If things don’t go well against Kentucky, they’ll fall far.
11) Ohio St (2-0): vs Akron: W 20-2
Ditto for the Buckeyes against Washington.
12) Cal (2-0): @ Colorado St: W 34-28
They really didn’t look at all good against the Rams, but they still won a road game against a (presumably) decent team, and that’s more than plenty of other teams could say today. Plus that Tennessee win still looks good after the Vols cruised against Southern Miss.
13) Oregon (2-0): @ Michigan: W 39-7
You can easily justify putting them higher, but they still struggled on defense against Houston in week 1, and Michigan hasn’t exactly looked like Michigan so far this year.
14) Georgia (1-1): vs S Car: L 12-16
Carolina is a pretty good team, and the OK State win still means something, so the Bulldogs don’t get penalized too much.
15) Wisconsin (2-0): @ UNLV: W 20-13
After a crappy showing like that, the Badgers no longer deserve much benefit of the doubt. If they want a high ranking, they’ll have to earn it.
16) USF (2-0): @ Auburn: W 26-23 (OT)
An incredibly ugly win over Auburn, lowlighted by multiple missed opportunities. Still, it’s a road win over a decent team, so that’s worth something.
17) BC (2-0): vs NC St: W 37-17
They’re 2-0 in ACC play, and they’ve looked pretty good getting there.
18) Tennessee (1-1): vs USM: W 39-19
Solid bounce-back win against Southern Miss.
19) Florida (2-0): vs Troy: W 59-31
I wasn’t high on Florida before the season started, and scrimmages against Western Kentucky and Troy aren’t going to change my mind.
20) Texas A&M (2-0): vs Fresno: W 47-45 (3 OT)
Not at all impressive against Fresno, but I’m not quite ready to kick them out of the top 25 yet.
21) Alabama (2-0): @ Vandy: W 24-10
They haven’t faced much competition, but they’ve looked great so far.
22) Rutgers (2-0): vs Navy: W 41-24
Ditto.
23) Nebraska (2-0): @ Wake: W 20-17
They still looked great against Nevada, so I’m not going to knock them hard for a sub-par effort against Wake.
24) BYU (1-1) @ UCLA: L 17-27
They played well in defeat against a top opponent in UCLA, they beat up Arizona last week, and there aren’t a whole lot of teams I can think of to put here instead.
25) Cincinnati (2-0) vs Oregon St: W 34-3
You could argue someone else instead, but the Bearcats have done great so far. I need to see them on the road before I jump any higher on the bandwagon, but they’ve earned this spot with their play so far.
Dropped Out:
9) Virginia Tech
17) Miami
20) Hawaii
22) TCU
On the Cusp:
Arizona State, Clemson, Hawaii, Purdue, TCU, Washington
Last Week
1) USC
2) Oklahoma
3) LSU
4) Wisconsin
5) WV
6) Louisville
7) UCLA
8) Georgia Tech
9) Virginia Tech
10) Texas
11) Ohio St
12) Cal
13) Georgia
14) South Carolina
15) Penn St
16) Texas A&M
17) Miami
18) Florida
19) USF
20) Hawaii
21) BC
22) Tennessee
23) TCU
24) Oregon
25) Nebraska
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
