|
Texas
(2-0) at
UCF
(1-0)
3:30 pm ESPN2
Why to watch:
Cinderella took it on the chin
last week, as Boise State, TCU
and Southern Miss lost, and
Hawaii was taken to overtime by
Louisiana Tech. Might UCF be
able to fill the void? Although
it’ll take a Herculean effort
against sixth-ranked Texas, the
Knights will be emboldened by an
opening day win at NC State and
the unveiling of their new
on-campus digs, Bright House
Networks Stadium. George
O’Leary is trying to engineer a
rebound from last year’s
disappointing 4-8 campaign, and
would like nothing more than to
knock South Florida from the
back page for a weekend. Texas
is unblemished through two
games, but it hasn’t been easy.
The ‘Horns had their hands full
with Arkansas State in the
opener, and trailed TCU in the
second half before pulling away
with 27 unanswered points. In
two weeks, Texas has slipped
behind Oklahoma in the polls and
court of public opinion, and
would benefit from a
wire-to-wire rout.
Why Texas might win: If
you can stop Kevin Smith, you’re
well on your way to shutting
down the UCF offense. The
Knights’ star back opened with
217 yards and two touchdowns in
Raleigh, but will find very
little running room against the
stout interior of the Texas
defense. Tackles Frank Okam and
Derek Lokey will dominate the
line of scrimmage, putting
intense pressure on QB Kyle
Israel and a suspect group of
receivers to make plays. The
speed and quickness of the
Longhorn linebackers is another
mountain of a problem that UCF
won’t be able to scale.
Why UCF might win:
Through two weeks, Texas has
displayed no consistency on the
offensive side of the ball.
Against Arkansas State, the
‘Horns had problems moving the
ball on the ground. Last week
versus TCU, they were picked off
twice and shut out for the first
33 minutes of the game. Despite
getting good protection, Colt
McCoy has thrown more
interceptions than touchdowns in
2007, and will get tested by a
Knight secondary that features
four returning starters.
Who to watch: Very
quietly, Texas RB Jamaal Charles
has run for 100 yards in both
games, which is once more than
he did it last year. The
catalyst in last week’s TCU win,
he’s averaging over five yards a
carry, a luxury for the offense
as McCoy works through his early
season struggles.
What will happen: While
there’ll be an air of excitement
for one of the biggest games in
UCF history, it won’t be enough
to spark a Knight upset. Texas
will win the battle on the
ground, frustrating Smith and
springing Charles for a couple
of crowd-quieting bursts.
CFN Prediction:
Texas
35 … UCF 13
...
Line: Texas -19
Must See Rating: (5
Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big
Shots) ... 2.5
Toledo (0-2)
at Kansas (2-0)
7:00 pm
Why to Watch: In
a perfect world, these two will
play a game as good as last
year's double overtime Toledo
win over Kansas, but with the
way 2007 has started for each
team, it might just be all about
the scoring. Kansas, yes, that
Kansas, is averaging 57 points
and 519.5 yards per came, while
allowing just one touchdown in
the first two outings.
Meanwhile, Toledo has been
consistent, allowing 52 points
to both Purdue and Central
Michigan. Expect lots of yards,
lots of points, and lots of big
plays from both attacks in what
should be a wild shootout.
Why Toledo Might Win: It's
not like Kansas has been pushed
yet, and Toledo has the
offensive balance to keep pace
for a full sixty minutes. The
Rockets finally settled on a
quarterback, Aaron Opelt, and he
produced 334 yards and two
touchdowns in last week's loss.
Can this really be a
night-and-day different Kansas
secondary than the one that was
torched by anyone who wanted to
throw the ball last year? Opelt
will certainly give it a shot.
Why Kansas Might Win: It's the
transitive theory of college
football. If Kansas beat Central
Michigan 52-7, and Central
Michigan beat Toledo 52-31, then
the Jayhawks should win in a
blowout, right? Of course,
things don't always work out
that way, but Toledo hasn't come
remotely close to stopping
anyone on offense, and it's
because of the defensive line.
Purdue and CMU combined to throw
the ball 64 times, but the
Rockets have yet to get their
first sack and have only
produced three tackles for loss.
Meanwhile, the run defense has
been absent, too. Kansas should
be able to pick how it wants to
move the ball.
Who to Watch: With the running
game rolling with a problem and
QB Todd Reesing playing like one
of the Big 12's newest stars,
all that's needed is a number
one receiver to draw attention
away from everyone else. KU
might have found its man in
senior Marcus Henry, a big,
physical veteran who's never
been able to put it all
together. That appears to have
changed early on this year with
the senior making 12 catches for
222 yards and a touchdown.
What Will Happen: Toledo's
offense will be better and KU
will finally start to give up
some points, but the Jayhawk
attack will roll at will.
Toledo's defense needs more time
and experience up front, and
will be a sore spot for a third
straight game.
CFN Prediction:
Kansas
52 ... Toledo 30
... Line: Kansas -21.5
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at
the VMAs - 1 Big Shots)
... 2
Texas State
(1-1) at Baylor
(1-1)
7:00 pm
Why to Watch: Now
that's how it's supposed
to work. After monkeying around
with a Texas Tech-like wide open
passing game, Baylor finally got
it right last week in a 42-17
blowout over Rice. The Bear
passing game rolled for 423
yards and six touchdowns, and
now gets two more tune-up games
with Texas State coming into
town this week before traveling
to Buffalo. The Bobcats
shouldn't provide more than a
light scrimmage considering it's
coming off a stunning 45-27 loss
to D-II Abilene Christian. TSU
gave Baylor a run in a 24-17
loss in 2004, but in the
previous five meetings, BU won
all five by a combined score of
220 to 22.
Why Texas State Might Win: The
only way TSU can beat the Bears,
or at least come close, is by
running the ball and hoping to
generate consistent pressure
into the backfield. The Bobcats
are big up front, and they have
a nice back in Stan Zwinggi who
tore off 159 yards and four
touchdowns on just 16 carries in
the opening day win over Cal
Poly.
Why Baylor Might Win: TSU has
been awful in pass coverage.
While the secondary is full of
veterans, and has three senior
starters, it has been dinked and
dunked on at will over the first
few games. Baylor should be able
to sharpen up the passing game
and hang whatever numbers it
wants to, but this could also be
a time to get the ground game
moving. BU will have its choice.
Not helping the Bobcats is their
penchant for turning the ball
over, giving it away eight times
in the first two games.
Who to Watch: While it's not time
to put him in the Colt Brennan,
Graham Harrell category quite
yet, Baylor junior QB Blake
Szymanski is coming off one of
the greatest passing days in the
school's history going 29 of 46
for 412 yards and six
touchdowns. There's no chance
the Bears will have a regular
running game throughout the
year, so either Szymanski has to
be on every week, or Baylor will
lose.
What Will Happen: Szymanski will
throw for five scores as the
Bears win their second straight
laugher.
CFN Prediction: Baylor 48 ...
Texas State 10
... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at
the VMAs - 1 Big Shots)
... 1
UL Monroe
(0-2) at Texas A&M
(2-0)
7:00 pm
Why to Watch: Now
that all of Aggieland's hearts
have started up again after a
thrilling 47-45 three overtime
win over Fresno State, the task
is to get by a not-that-bad 0-2
UL Monroe team that battled well
in losses to Tulsa and Clemson.
If you like running games, this
one's for you, with the Warhawks,
led by Calvin Dawson, coming in
with one of the nation's most
effective ground teams, and A&M
exclusively going with the
running attack early on this
year. ULM is diving into Sun
Belt play next week with a
showdown at Troy, while the
Aggies are hoping to get hot
before traveling to Miami.
Why UL Monroe Might Win: ULM
has mostly struggled so far
against the pass and has been
decent against the run. Clemson
might have gotten five touchdown
passes from QB Willy Korn, but
the ground game only managed 184
yards and two touchdowns. Fine,
so the Tiger stars had no
problems running the ball, with
James Davis averaging 9.7 yards
per carry and C.J. Spiller
averaging 6.3, but the ULM
defense won't have to focus at
all on the A&M passing and can
devote everyone up the line this
week. ULM has been good at not
beating itself, and it'll have
to be mistake-free to have a
chance to keep this close.
Why Texas A&M Might Win: If A&M
ever did want to work on it's
passing game, this would be the
week. Tulsa and Clemson had no
problems hitting the short to
midrange passes with regularity,
and the opportunities will be
there all day long for Stephen
McGee to throw. ULM has a decent
pass rush, but not enough of one
to make anyone worry.
Who to Watch: Yes, McGee really
can throw the ball. He was an
accomplished high school passer
who's now been thrust into the
role of ring-leader for the
devastating ground attack. While
A&M has been able to rumble
without a problem on just about
everyone, it needs to at least
threaten to throw it. So far,
McGee hasn't been efficient,
completing just 52% of his
passes for 191 yards and a
touchdown. A mediocre receiving
corps has had a lot to do with
that, but it's time McGee starts
to make everyone around him
better. For the A&M offense to
be humming, McGee needs to
connect on well over 60% of his
throws and he has to come up
with one or two deep shots now
and then.
What Will Happen: ULM will
provide far more of a challenge
than A&M would like. It's not
going to be Fresno State all
over again, but the Warhawks
will get its yards and points in
before the Aggie ground game
takes over.
CFN Prediction:
Texas A&M 44 ...
UL Monroe
23
... Line: Texas A&M -24
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at
the VMAs - 1 Big Shots)
... 2
Missouri State
(2-0) at Kansas State (1-1)
7:05 pm
Why to Watch: All
of a sudden, what should've been
viewed as a light scrimmage
before a two week layoff to work
on Texas has become something
for the Wildcats to worry a
little bit about. Missouri State
has its offense humming, coming
off a 51-44 stunner over a FCS
ranked UT Martin team. MSU head
coach Terry Allen is all too
familiar with the Wildcat
program, having been the head
coach at Kansas for five years.
While he never beat KSU while at
KU, this might be the most
powerful offense he's ever
brought to Manhattan. For KSU,
it's all about getting
everything in place for the
showdown with the Longhorns. The
running game needs tuning, the
turnovers have to stop, and QB
Josh Freeman has to keep
improving.
Why Missouri State Might Win: It
all has to be kept in
perspective when dealing with
FCS teams, but MSU hung up 113
points in the first two weeks on
Missouri-Rolla and UT-Martin.
This is a balanced offense that
runs extremely well and bombs
away effectively and efficiently
when it has to. Of course, this
is a step up in competition for
the Bears, but if KSU isn't
paying attention, it'll get a
big number hung on its defense.
Why Kansas State Might Win: The
Bears won't be able to handle
the pressure applied by the KSU
defensive front seven. The
Wildcats have cranked out eight
sacks and 18 tackles for loss in
two games, doing a fantastic job
of disrupting Auburn and San
Jose State from getting anything
consistently going offensively.
Outside of a late rally by the
Tigers, the KSU defense hasn't
given up much of anything, and
should be a brick wall at times
for the MSU ground game.
Who to Watch: Kansas State has a
huge advantage in the punt
return game. MSU's Eric Davis
has only returned four punts so
far, but he's gone backwards for
-21 yards. Meanwhile, KSU's Deon
Murphy has averaged a whopping
20.4 yards per return. No,
Kansas State isn't going to hold
a 40+ yard advantage in punt
returns, but it should make a
big difference as the game goes
on.
What Will Happen: Missouri State
will get plenty of yards, but
it'll also suffer plenty of
losses as Kansas State hangs out
in the backfield. This will be
the game Kansas State finds its
running game.
CFN Prediction: Kansas State 52
... Missouri State 19
... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at
the VMAs - 1 Big Shots)
... 1
Florida State
(1-1) at Colorado (1-1)
10:00 pm ESPN
Why to Watch: In
an interestingly odd matchup of
two conferences that rarely
cross paths, Colorado looks to
get the first big name win in
the Dan Hawkins era, while
Florida State tries to
jump-start a season that's
started off rocky at best. The
Noles showed good heart in
coming back late to make a game
of it in the loss to Clemson,
and then they came out and
struggled against an awful UAB
team. With Alabama coming up,
followed by the meat of the ACC
season, the time is now for all
the coaching changes, and all
the tweaks to the offensive
system, to kick in. For
Colorado, the key is
establishing a little bit of
consistency. After opening the
season with a win over Colorado
State, the Buffs were never in
the game in the loss to Arizona
State. The offense has to
finally start showing some signs
of life, and the defense has to
play much better than it has to
start the year. Florida State
won the only time the two play
in a 47-7 blasting in 2003.
Why Florida State Might Win: Colorado
can't throw. Cody Hawkins is a
great-looking young prospect who
should grow into the role over
the next few years, but right
now, the passing attack hasn't
been appreciably better than
last year when it was the worst
in America. The Seminole
secondary has talent, and hasn't
been bad over the first two
weeks, and it would be a lot
better if the defensive front
could start to generate a pass
rush. If FSU can get up early
against the Buffs, it could be over. CU
doesn't have comeback ability,
and the overall explosiveness
isn't getting any help with
Bernard Jackson, last year's
starting quarterback who became
a receiver, likely done thanks
to academic problems.
Why Colorado Might Win: It's not
all going to be about Hawkins
this week as he get some big
help returning. RB Hugh Charles
missed the ASU game with a
hamstring problem and now is
back to 100% and ready to roll.
Without him, CU rushed for a
mere 32 yards against Arizona
State and 129 against Colorado
State. With a first option to go
to in the offense, Hawkins
should be more comfortable and
shouldn't have to make every
play happen on his own.
Who to Watch: What's up with
DeCody Fagg? The one-time
superstar receiver recruit for
the Noles came into the season
as one of the team captains, and
now he might turn into a reserve
after catching just five balls
for 34 yards, dropping several
key passes, and making a slew of
mental mistakes. Also needing to
step up and do more is Greg
Carr, who came through with a
nice day against UAB, but still
hasn't developed into a
full-time go-to receiver. Will
he ever catch more than five
passes? The offense likes to
spread it around, but with
Fagg's problems, Carr quickly
has to be the number one target.
What Will Happen: Both teams have
major problems, but Florida
State has more talent to make up
for all the issues. This will be
the game the defensive line
finally starts to play like the
Florida State offensive line,
and while Hawkins will have a
decent game, he won't get the
passing game going quickly
enough to jump out to a
desperately needed early lead.
CFN Prediction:
Florida
State 31 ... Colorado 20
... Line: Florida State -4.5
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at
the VMAs - 1 Big Shots)
... 2.5
Big 12 Fearless Predictions,
Week 3, Part One |