ACC Fearless Predictions, Sept. 15, Part 2

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 13, 2007


Previews and Predictions for the Week 3 ACC Games, Part 2


ACC
Atlantic Boston Coll | ClemsonFlorida St | Maryland | NC State | Wake Forest
Coastal Duke | Georgia Tech | Miami | North Carolina | Virginia | Virginia Tech

ACC Fearless Predictions Sept. 1
Sept. 8 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29 
Oct. 6Oct. 13 | Oct. 20Oct. 27 | Nov. 3Nov. 10 | Nov. 17Nov. 24Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 16-3 ... ATS: 9-6-1

ACC Fearless Predictions, Week Three, Part 1

ACC Saturday, Sept. 15

Army (1-1) at Wake Forest (0-2) 3:30 PM
Why to Watch: The Demon Deacons are among the nation’s best 0-2 teams, thanks to a 10-point defeat to BC and last week’s late three-point loss to Nebraska. Despite using backup QB Brett Hodges, Wake put pressure on the highly-regarded Cornhuskers throughout the game and could well have won it if not for a few key late mistakes. Army, meanwhile, is trying to build on a 14-7 overtime win over Rhode Island, the first ever for new coach Stan Brock. Yes, the Rams are an FCS team, but the struggling Cadets won’t be snobs about whom they beat at this point. They’ll try to gather some momentum behind a stingy defense and emerging passing game in what would amount to a program-changing win if they can pull it off.
Why Army Might Win: The Black Knights got a boost from sophomore QB Carson Williams, who took over for injured David Pevoto (ankle) and threw for 148 yards on 12-of-20 passing. Williams may not be as experienced as Pevoto, but he engineered two TD drives and threw the winning TD pass in OT. The Army defense has allowed just 295 total yards a game and piled up five sacks. If the Cadets are going to win, however, they must be more effective on the ground, since they’re only averaging 52 yards a game rushing.
Why Wake Forest Might Win: Simply put, Wake is too good to be 0-3 this year. Last year’s magical season is long gone, but the Deacons still have plenty to play for, and a win Saturday would be a good kick start. QB Brett Hodges has played well in relief of Riley Skinner (shoulder) and runs the Wake offense well, even though he’s still learning on the fly. He has a great weapon at his disposal in wideout Kenneth Moore, who has proven to be tremendously versatile this year, rushing for 116 yards and a TD against Nebraska and catching a whopping 15 passes versus BC. Since Army’s passing offense woke up last week, and Wake has given up 333.0 yards passing per game, the Deacons need to tighten that up.
Who to Watch: Army opened up in a two-tight end formation last week, and it turned out to be a good move, since senior Justin Lawson ended up catching the winning TD pass in overtime. Lawson, who played in all 12 games last year but caught just five throws, already has nine receptions this year. He and Mike Evans give Williams and Pevoto a pair of solid targets.
What Will Happen: The Deacon attack is too savvy and versatile for the Cadets, and Wake should take out some of the frustrations it has felt the past two weeks.
CFN Prediction: Wake Forest 38 … Army 13 ... Line: Wake Forest -21 

Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 1.5


Florida International (0-2) at Miami (1-1)  3:30 PM ESPNU
Why to Watch: On the surface, this is as ugly as it gets, but it’s an important chance for the ‘Canes to get things straight after a clubbing by Oklahoma last Saturday. But then you remember last year’s matchup, and the reason to watch comes into sharp focus. The ’06 edition of this rivalry featured the infamous brawl that led to 31 suspensions by the teams and became the beginning of the end for both coaching staffs. There won’t be the bad blood this time around with new head coaches Mario Cristobal at FIU and Miami’s Randy Shannon handling things far differently. Even so, this will still be a hard fought game with FIU looking to make a big statement in some way, as Cristobal tries to make his program like the one down the road.
Why Florida International Might Win: The Golden Panthers weren’t too pleased to see that Miami was whipped in Norman last week, since the Hurricanes are liable to be focused and mad. Still, Miami is an imperfect team with a shaky passing attack that manages just 84 yards a game. Kyle Wright gets the start this week, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be any better than Kirby Freeman, who was inept. FIU had better get its offense going, particularly on the ground, since it has rushed for just 79 yards in its two losses. A better rushing attack will help QB Wayne Younger be a little more accurate (42.6%) against the tough Miami defense.
Why Miami Might Win: Wright may be inaccurate and inconsistent, but he’ll have plenty of opportunity to look good against the leaky FIU defense. Wright came on in relief last week and led Miami to its only TD. Even if implodes, the ground game should be sufficient to dominate the Panthers. Graig Cooper (142 yards) and Javarris James (127 yards, 2 TDs) have been excellent so far and could each get over 100 yards Saturday. The Hurricane defense is still reeling from last week, but it continues to produce turnovers (plus-4 margin) and should be able to add to that total Saturday.
Who to Watch: There are plenty of times when a son plays for his father in college but precious few when fathers and sons are opponents. That’s what happens Saturday, when Shannon squares off against his son, Xavier, FIU’s starting center. The Miami head man has said that he and his son will be enemies during the game, and family after it. The third-year starting junior (he was a regular for five games as a frosh) is 6-1, 288 and a solid middle man for the Panthers.
What Will Happen: Expect relative peace between the teams, but on the scoreboard, the Hurricanes will romp.
CFN Prediction: Miami 40 … FIU 6 ... Line: Miami -33 
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 1.5

Wofford (2-0) at NC State (0-2) 6:00 PM
Why to Watch: How often do you get a chance to watch a game between two schools which haven’t met in 87 years? Not too often, so why not see if the Terriers, ranked 11th in I-AA, can avenge a 90-7 spanking absorbed in 1920? NC State doesn’t care about margin of victory. The 0-2 Wolfpack is just looking for its first win under new coach Tom O’Brien, but given the Southern Conference’s success so far against I-A schools (hello, Appalachian State!), don’t rule out the Terriers, who have won seven in a row.
Why Wofford Might Win: The Terriers average 359.0 rushing yards per game, and the Wolfpack surrenders 218.5, so there is an opportunity for the Wofford ground-based attack to thrive. Backs Kevious Johnson, Jeremy Marshall and Michael Hobbs have each rushed for at least 100 yards this season, while QB Josh Collier has two TDs on the ground. Wofford is also an opportunistic team, with a plus-5 turnover ratio, a good thing, since the Wolfpack is minus-8 in that department. Wofford has also been successful against the run, allowing only 107.0 a game, not good news for a State team that has managed just 70.5 yards in two games.
Why North Carolina State Might Win: Even though Wofford isn’t a pushover, the Pack should be too strong, particularly since three of the Terriers’ offensive linemen weigh 285 pounds or less. QB Harrison Beck piled up plenty of passing yardage in last week’s loss to Boston College, with 321 yards. NC State is 14th nationally in passing, and Wofford has let up 276.5 yards per game through the air. And junior Andre Brown has stepped up well at running back, with 136 yards and a TD, in relief of injured starter Toney Baker. Also, the NC State defensive front will be fortified by the return of Alan Michael Cash, who missed last week’s loss due to his father’s funeral.
Whom to Watch: After practice Tuesday, Wolfpack QB Harrison Beck had a conversation with O’Brien and said he understood that he hadn’t played well, and that he would improve. That wasn’t a bad idea after Beck threw five interceptions against Boston College. The Nebraska transfer has a good arm and the ability to get the ball downfield, but he must be more accurate (55.1%) and less prone to making bad decisions.
What Will Happen: Wofford will be able to run the ball a bit, but NC State will make too much progress through the air to be denied.
CFN Prediction: NC State 24 … Wofford 13 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 1.5

Duke (0-2) at Northwestern (2-0) 8:00 PM Big Ten Network
Why to Watch: There's a recent history between the two top-notch academic institutions with Northwestern winning five in a row since Duke thumped the Wildcats 44-10 in 1998. After a brutally ugly start, losing to Connecticut and Virginia by a combined score of 69 to 27, the Blue Devils desperately need a good performance to break the 22-game losing streak before facing Navy next week. After that, the schedule only gets tougher with the only reasonable shot at pulling off a win not coming until the rivalry date with North Carolina to end the season. If Duke goes 0-12, it'll take the losing streak up to 32 games, two shy of the dubious record set by Northwestern from 1979 to 1982, but that's still a long way off. For now, Northwestern can't look past the Blue Devils to Ohio State and Michigan. The Wildcats needed a last-minute comeback to stun Nevada, and while they're 2-0, they're still searching for consistency on both sides of the ball. A win would give Northwestern just its second 3-0 start since 1965.
Why Duke Might Win: The Wildcats aren't getting the production from the lines that was expected early on. The offensive line has been fine for the ground game, but has struggled in pass protection. The defensive line has gotten into the backfield, but has struggled against the run. Duke has to take advantage of this. Getting into the backfield has been one of the only things the defense has been able to do reasonably well, while there's decent talent in the backfield to finally get the running game going. However ...
Why Northwestern Might Win: ... the defense made the mediocre Connecticut and Virginia offenses look like the Indianapolis Colts. The Huskies and Cavaliers are severely deficient in receiver talent, and have mediocre passing quarterbacks, but the Blue Devil secondary couldn't do anything against either air attack. Northwestern has a balanced offense that's getting timely passing and good production out of the receiving corps. A ten-point lead against this Duke team might as well be a 55-point margin.
Who to Watch: The pressure will be on the Wildcat passing game to produce with star RB Tyrell Sutton likely to be out with an ankle injury. Senior Brandon Roberson picked up the slack against Nevada with 128 yards and a touchdown, but he's never had to be the workhorse before. He broke off a 76-yard dash against Nevada, and while he likely won't have to hit any home runs, he'll have to be consistent enough to make Duke worry about the run. For Duke, someone has to emerge to help the ground game. Justin Boyle only has 45 yards on 13 carries, and he's the team's leading rusher.
What Will Happen: Duke will finally show a little bit of offense, but it won't matter. Northwestern will get a crisp game out of QB C.J. Bacher, and it won't need any last minute heroics.
CFN Prediction: Northwestern 27 ... Duke 16
... Line: Northwestern -16.5
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2


Florida State (1-1) at Colorado (1-1)  10:00 pm ESPN
Why to Watch: In an interestingly odd matchup of two conferences that rarely cross paths, Colorado looks to get the first big name win in the Dan Hawkins era, while Florida State tries to jump-start a season that's started off rocky at best. The Noles showed good heart in coming back late to make a game of it in the loss to Clemson, and then they came out and struggled against an awful UAB team. With Alabama coming up, followed by the meat of the ACC season, the time is now for all the coaching changes, and all the tweaks to the offensive system, to kick in. For Colorado, the key is establishing a little bit of consistency. After opening the season with a win over Colorado State, the Buffs were never in the game in the loss to Arizona State. The offense has to finally start showing some signs of life, and the defense has to play much better than it has to start the year. Florida State won the only time the two play in a 47-7 blasting in 2003.
Why Florida State Might Win: Colorado can't throw. Cody Hawkins is a great-looking young prospect who should grow into the role over the next few years, but right now, the passing attack hasn't been appreciably better than last year when it was the worst in America. The Seminole secondary has talent, and hasn't been bad over the first two weeks, and it would be a lot better if the defensive front could start to generate a pass rush. If FSU can get up early against the Buffs, it could be over. CU doesn't have comeback ability, and the overall explosiveness isn't getting any help with Bernard Jackson, last year's starting quarterback who became a receiver, likely done thanks to academic problems.
Why Colorado Might Win: It's not all going to be about Hawkins this week as he get some big help returning. RB Hugh Charles missed the ASU game with a hamstring problem and now is back to 100% and ready to roll. Without him, CU rushed for a mere 32 yards against Arizona State and 129 against Colorado State. With a first option to go to in the offense, Hawkins should be more comfortable and shouldn't have to make every play happen on his own.
Who to Watch: What's up with DeCody Fagg? The one-time superstar receiver recruit for the Noles came into the season as one of the team captains, and now he might turn into a reserve after catching just five balls for 34 yards, dropping several key passes, and making a slew of mental mistakes. Also needing to step up and do more is Greg Carr, who came through with a nice day against UAB, but still hasn't developed into a full-time go-to receiver. Will he ever catch more than five passes? The offense likes to spread it around, but with Fagg's problems, Carr quickly has to be the number one target.
What Will Happen: Both teams have major problems, but Florida State has more talent to make up for all the issues. This will be the game the defensive line finally starts to play like the Florida State offensive line, and while Hawkins will have a decent game, he won't get the passing game going quickly enough to jump out to a desperately needed early lead.
CFN Prediction: Florida State 31 ... Colorado 20
... Line: Florida State -4.5
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2.5

ACC Fearless Predictions, Week Three, Part 1
 


  

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