Scout.com: Sun Belt Fearless Predictions, Sep 15, Part 2

Sun Belt Fearless Predictions, Sep 15, Part 2

By Staff

CollegeFootballNews.com
Posted Sep 13, 2007

| More

Previews and Predictions for the Week 3 Sun Belt Games, Part 2

Sun Belt Fearless Predictions Sept. 1 | Sept. 8 | Sept. 22 | Sept. 29
Oct. 6 | Oct. 13 | Oct. 20 | Oct. 27 | Nov. 3 | Nov. 10 | Nov. 17 | Nov. 24 | Dec. 1

How are the picks so far? SU: 12-2 ... ATS: 7-6-1

Sun Belt Week Three Fearless Predictions, Part 1

Sun Belt Saturday, Sept. 15

McNeese State (1-0) at UL Lafayette (0-2) 7:00 pm
Why to Watch: It’s a renewal of what used to be a good rivalry before 1986. Now it’s simply a good matchup between a national title contending MSU team against a ULL squad looking for its first win before diving into Sun Belt play next week against Troy. The Ragin’ Cajuns played well in the first two weeks, but couldn’t hand on in losses to South Carolina and Ohio. MSU, ranked as high as eight among the FCS teams, ripped through Portland State 35-12 last week.
Why McNeese State Might Win: Given the way the past two weeks have played out for ULL, the Cowboys should have sky-high confidence going into the second half if this is close. In the first two games, ULL has been outscored 28-3 after halftime, meaning the adjustments haven’t been working. One thing MSU should be able to do is slow down the run, with a stifling, quick defensive front that’s great at getting into the backfield. ULL is all about the run.
Why UL Lafayette Might Win: ULL’s offensive line is far better than Portland State’s. While dealing with MSU’s quickness will be tough, the Ragin’ Cajun front five should be able to pound away, while the running game should crank out a few long drives to keep the high-octane Cowboys off the field. While ULL hasn’t had to throw too often, the pass protection has been good against two solid defenses.
Who to Watch: It’s time Derrick Smith got used more. ULL’s junior receiver hasn’t been much of a deep threat, but he’s a reliable target who can crank out big plays when defenses are keying on the run. He caught four passes for 99 yards against Ohio, and could be deadly if QB Michael Desormeaux can avoid the MSU pass rush long enough to get the ball away.
What Will Happen: This will be nip and tuck into the fourth quarter, and that’s when the ULL O line will take over. Each team will get its share of offensive highlights, but it’ll be the steady running of ULL’s Tyrell Fenroy that gets the win.
CFN Prediction: UL Lafayette 31 … McNeese State 28 ... Line: No Line
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 1.5

UL Monroe (0-2) at Texas A&M (2-0) 7:00 pm
Why to Watch: Now that all of Aggieland's hearts have started up again after a thrilling 47-45 three overtime win over Fresno State, the task is to get by a not-that-bad 0-2 UL Monroe team that battled well in losses to Tulsa and Clemson. If you like running games, this one's for you, with the Warhawks, led by Calvin Dawson, coming in with one of the nation's most effective ground teams, and A&M exclusively going with the running attack early on this year. ULM is diving into Sun Belt play next week with a showdown at Troy, while the Aggies are hoping to get hot before traveling to Miami.
Why UL Monroe Might Win: ULM has mostly struggled so far against the pass and has been decent against the run. Clemson might have gotten five touchdown passes from QB Willy Korn, but the ground game only managed 184 yards and two touchdowns. Fine, so the Tiger stars had no problems running the ball, with James Davis averaging 9.7 yards per carry and C.J. Spiller averaging 6.3, but the ULM defense won't have to focus at all on the A&M passing and can devote everyone up the line this week. ULM has been good at not beating itself, and it'll have to be mistake-free to have a chance to keep this close.
Why Texas A&M Might Win: If A&M ever did want to work on it's passing game, this would be the week. Tulsa and Clemson had no problems hitting the short to midrange passes with regularity, and the opportunities will be there all day long for Stephen McGee to throw. ULM has a decent pass rush, but not enough of one to make anyone worry.
Who to Watch: Yes, McGee really can throw the ball. He was an accomplished high school passer who's now been thrust into the role of ring-leader for the devastating ground attack. While A&M has been able to rumble without a problem on just about everyone, it needs to at least threaten to throw it. So far, McGee hasn't been efficient, completing just 52% of his passes for 191 yards and a touchdown. A mediocre receiving corps has had a lot to do with that, but it's time McGee starts to make everyone around him better. For the A&M offense to be humming, McGee needs to connect on well over 60% of his throws and he has to come up with one or two deep shots now and then.
What Will Happen: ULM will provide far more of a challenge than A&M would like. It's not going to be Fresno State all over again, but the Warhawks will get its yards and points in before the Aggie ground game takes over.
CFN Prediction: Texas A&M 44 ... UL Monroe 23 ... Line: Texas A&M -24
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 2

Middle Tennessee (0-2) at LSU (2-0) 8:00 PM GamePlan
Why to Watch: What appeared to be a brutally ugly mismatch before the season began has now turned into a brutally ugly mismatch with a little bit of intrigue after Middle Tennessee's offense cranked out 555 yards of total offense and 42 points on Louisville last week. Meanwhile, LSU spent last Saturday night making its claim for the top spot in the rankings after stomping on Virginia Tech 48-7. With South Carolina up next, the Tigers might suffer a little bit of a mental letdown, but with all the parts working, it might not matter. For Middle Tennessee, anything less than a 40-point blowout will be a success. Next week, Western Kentucky will look like it's running in sand compared to what the Blue Raiders are about to deal with.
Why Middle Tennessee Might Win: Alright, so how did the offense work so well against Louisville? It was able to get its running backs in space and they took off for a few really, really big plays. DeMarco McNair took a short pass 78 yards for a touchdown, Phillip Tanner ran for a 79 yard score, and the ground game ended up averaging 10.3 yards per crack. Make no mistake about it; Louisville can run, and MT still came up with the home runs. If LSU has a few mental breakdowns, and misses a few tackles, it could be shocked at how speedy the Blue Raider skill players are.
Why LSU Might Win: Yeah, Middle Tennessee put up some huge numbers against Louisville, but it only scored seven points in the second half once the Cardinals decided to tackle and chose to mentally check into the game. On the other side of the ball, Middle Tennessee's run defense has been shockingly awful. Considering there's actually a few NFL prospects on the front wall, Florida Atlantic shouldn't have been able to run for 216 yards. Louisville's Anthony Allen cranked out 7.9 yards per carry on a 275-yard, two touchdown day. LSU will want to work on its passing, but it'll hang the ball off 55 times and go home with a blowout win.
Who to Watch: For those Tiger fans waiting to see Ryan Perrilloux under center for more than just garbage time, this should be your chance. Starting QB Matt Flynn missed a little practice time with a dinged up ankle, and while it's nothing remotely serious, it might be just enough to get his butt on the bench the second the game gets out of hand. Perrilloux has completed seven of eight passes for 105 yards and three touchdowns, and has run for 33 yards and a score, in limited action.
What Will Happen: Middle Tennessee will try to air it out and will look for every opportunity to take some chances. LSU will get more than its share of turnovers on the way to a cakewalk of a win. The reserves will play most of the second half.
CFN Prediction: LSU 48 ... Middle Tennessee 10 ... Line: LSU -41
Must See Rating: (5 Britney at the VMAs - 1 Big Shots) ... 1.5