Instant Analysis: TCU-Air Force

Know that lightning bolt on the helmets of the Air Force Academy's football players? It struck down the Mountain West Conference favorite in one of the most stunning games of the young season.

The Troy Calhoun era--also known as life after the iconic Fisher DeBerry--got off to a roaring start Thursday night in Colorado Springs, as the Falcons' first-year coach watched his team abruptly turn a lackluster loss into an ultimate upset. The fact that Air Force won was somewhat surprising, but the truly shocking nature of this confounding conference clash was the fact that with under ten minutes left in regulation, TCU had a sleeper hold on the Falcons. The Horned Frogs' superior defense was smothering quarterback Shaun Carney and the rest of the Air Force attack, as Gary Patterson's team easily amassed a 17-3 advantage. All the action was occurring on the Air Force side of the field, and hope was being drained from the stands in Falcon Stadium.

But then, out of the thin Rocky Mountain air, came a series of big plays that would topple TCU and send the reeling Horned Frogs--a preseason BCS party-crasher in the eyes of some--to their second loss in the past six days.

First came a 4th and 1 stop of the Horned Frogs at the Air Force 29. Then, a TCU defender inexplicably went for an interception on an eight-yard sit-down route to Air Force tight end Travis Dekker. That eight-yard route became a 50-yard pass play that led to a nine-yard touchdown pass on the very next snap. In a heartbeat, the 14-point lead had been cut in half.

The huge plays--fueled just as much by TCU mistakes as by Air Force excellence--just kept coming.

Air Force tried a suprise onside kick on the following kickoff, but failed. Yet, TCU's offense couldn't even get one first down to penetrate field goal range and gain a two-possession lead. On the ensuing punt, the Horned Frogs' special teams unit was faked out by the Air Force returner, as the punt hit on the eight-yard line but rolled untouched into the end zone. With some degree of breathing room, coach Calhoun was able to roll the dice once more and go for the first down on 4th and short from his own 29. While TCU's defense bit hard to the inside, Carney faked and pitched the ball to running back Jim Ollis, who cleanly turned the corner and ran for 55 yards without being breathed on. After shrugging off the lone pursuer from the TCU secondary at the 15, Ollis strolled into the end zone for a 71-yard touchdown play. With the PAT, the game was suddenly tied at 17. In just four minutes, a previously dormant Air Force offense had turned two conservative offensive plays--a simple sit-down route and a basic pitch play--into a pair of touchdown-producing thunderbolts. Meanwhile, the Horned Frogs had managed to undo their efforts over the game's first 50 minutes by committing a series of massive--and crippling--situational breakdowns.

The big plays for Air Force would still emerge, however, as TCU's collapse would reach its spectacular crash-and-burn completion.

For all of the Horned Frogs' struggles on offense--including a red zone interception that prevented TCU from establishing an even bigger lead earlier in the second half--quarterback Andy Dalton led his teammates downfield when it mattered, converting a 3rd and 3 with a nine-yard pass to the Air Force 21 with just 54 seconds remaining in regulation. After a disastrous nine-minute sequence in which a decisive lead had become a tied ballgame, TCU seemed to be ready to kick a field goal and get out of river city with a conference win. But in accordance with the previous nine minutes of clock time, TCU just couldn't stand any kind of prosperity, throwing away leverage with horrible mistakes against an opportunistic opponent that refused to quit.

On that fateful, fatal first down with 54 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, one team's comeback and another team's collapse were crystallized in a single play. Dalton lofted a pass to the left sideline near the goal-line pylon. The ball was intended for TCU receiver Jimmy Young, who was covered by Air Force cornerback Carson Bird in a mano-a-mano matchup. The pass wasn't a horrible one, but in the final minute of a tied game, the first priority for a quarterback is to make sure the ball cannot be picked off. The soft touch on the pass, combined with the fact that it wasn't thrown to Young's outside shoulder, made the pass catchable for the defender as well as the receiver. In that sense, it was a very deficient pass. But if Dalton made a less-than-perfect throw, Young made an even more glaring mistake. The TCU receiver didn't see the ball, so when Bird made his leap for the pigskin, Young wasn't able to box him out. When Young--a superb athlete with a prototypical receiver's body--failed to seal out Bird and prevent him from snagging the pass, the battle had already been lost by the Horned Frogs, and won by the resurgent Falcons. Bird did indeed snare the interception just inside the pylon, while Young--still drifting toward the back of the end zone--utterly failed to break up the pass, which is the job of a receiver when avoiding a turnover is his team's highest priority. One more time, Air Force had been on the ropes, and one more time, TCU let its opponent get off the canvas. With the Horned Frogs' chances now reduced to the coin flip called overtime, the smell of an upset sent the Air Force student body into a frenzy. After Carson Bird's interception, the Horned Frogs lost their last best claim to this contest.

The overtime would be short and utterly predictable. TCU kicker Chris Manfredini doinked his 36-yard field goal off the left upright, while Air Force's Ryan Harrison nailed his 33-yard boot to give the Falcons a mammoth victory for themselves and Calhoun, their brand-new head coach. The same man who played for Fisher DeBerry back in the mid-1980s had returned to his alma mater and scored the biggest upset of a Mountain West season that is still in its early stages. The Falcons, now 2-0 in the league, are poised to challenge both TCU and BYU for the conference championship. In the final 10 mintues of the fourth quarter plus one inning of overtime, these gritty and resilient Falcons wiped away three very forgettable quarters of football. As for TCU, nothing about this shocking collapse will be forgotten for a long time to come.

One fourth down stop, one botched punt coverage, and two game-breakers turned a TCU romp into a flat-footed tie. Then one interception and one missed field goal gave complete situational control to Air Force. In roughly 45 minutes of real time, six gigantic plays turned an easy TCU win into an Air Force ambush. Domination turned into desolation for the numbed Horned Frogs, while impotence turned into inspiration for the jubilant Falcons. College football will rarely be as dramatic--or as defining--as it was in Colorado Springs on a night when lightning struck not just twice, but six times, in the blink of an eye.