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Northwestern
(2-1)
at Ohio State
(3-0)
3:30 PM ESPN
Why to Watch: Ohio
State made a statement last week that
seemed to get lost in the shuffle. It
became the chic pick to take Washington
over the Buckeyes, but a big second half
and a 33-14 win suddenly changed things
around a bit. The defense has been
stellar, and the offense, while not
anything special, has done just enough
to get by. That's right, it's Tressel
ball. Now OSU starts the Big Ten season
against the league's two worst teams,
facing Minnesota next week after dealing
with Northwestern. The Wildcats won a
game they shouldn't have, pulling out a
last-second 36-31 miracle over Nevada,
and lost a game it shouldn't have,
failing to pull out another last second
win in the 20-14 loss to Duke. This is
an up-and-coming team that'll pull off a
shocker or two this year, but it'll have
to play a flawless game to get the
program's second win over OSU in 28
tries, and the first win in Columbus
since 1971.
Why Northwestern Might Win: Washington
might not have done too much
offensively, but it got a decent game
out of QB Jake Locker, who ran for 102
yards and threw for 153 more with a
touchdown pass. However, he threw three
picks. Northwestern's C.J. Bacher isn't
Locker when it comes to running, but he
can take off and get yards in chunks.
He's also the best passer the Buckeyes
have seen so far this year, coming off a
368-yard day against Duke. Ohio State's
offense still isn't humming, so if the
Wildcats can keep this close, and
somehow force a big turnover, it might
be a battle deep into the second half.
Why Ohio State Might Win:
The defense is playing at a national
title level. It didn't allow a touchdown
in the first two games, gave up one to
Washington in the final moments of the
first half, and allowed another in
garbage time. The defensive front seven
has been dominant, especially against
running backs, while the secondary has
been stingy. The is the nation's sixth
best pass efficiency defense and ninth
best overall D against the pass.
Northwestern's offense might be good,
but it's not going to be able to
consistently crank out the long drives
needed.
Who to Watch: It's not that
Northwestern senior RB Brandon Roberson
is bad, he ran for 128 yards against
Nevada and 80 against Duke, with a
touchdown in each game, but he's not
Tyrell Sutton. Sutton, an Ohio native
and one of the program's top recruits
over the last few years, has been out
with a high ankle sprain, but now he's
needed. Even if he's not 100%, he's the
one guy the Buckeyes will have to
account for on every play, and that
might be just enough to open things up
for Bacher and the passing game. Trying
to stop Sutton will be James Laurinaitis,
who's playing up to the high level he
set last year, coming off an eight
tackle, two pick day against Washington.
What Will Happen: Ohio State
appeared to wake up last week in
Seattle, and it could start a big run.
The defense will get in the Northwestern
backfield all game long, while the
Buckeyes should be able to run the ball
as long as it wants to.
CFN Prediction:
Ohio State
38 ... Northwestern 10
... Line: OSU -22
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your
Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation)
...
2
Iowa (2-1) at
Wisconsin (3-0)
8:00 PM GamePlan
Why to Watch: Will
the real Wisconsin please stand up?
Considered by many to be a top five team
at the start of the year, a shaky
performance in a 20-13 win over UNLV
started to cause a little national
skepticism, and then an awful defensive
first half against Citadel, in a 45-31
win, has put the team on notice that it
needs to start showing something more to
earn the lofty status. If this really is
a team worthy of winning the Big Ten
title, going to the BCS, and possibly
making a sleeper run at a national title
shot, this is a game it has to win in a
walk. Iowa is coming off a 15-13 gaffe
to a horrible Iowa State team, and now
needs a big redemption game to show that
the rivalry loss was a fluke. This has
been an unpredictably bizarre series
over the last few years, with Iowa
winning four of the last five meetings.
Wisconsin won last year in Iowa City
despite not having starting QB John
Stocco. The Hawkeyes won in Madison in
2005, ruining Barry Alvarez's final home
game, and ruined UW's chance to go to
the Rose Bowl in 2004 with a 30-7 win.
Why Iowa Might Win: The defense
has been playing at another level,
allowing six field goals and no
touchdowns. The run defense has been a
brick wall over the first three games,
thanks to a defensive line that's
destroying offensive lines with a
combination of speed and quickness at
all four spots. The Wisconsin offensive
line isn't great against athletic
defensive fronts, and it'll have a
nightmare of a time keeping QB Tyler
Donovan clean. Iowa will stuff more than
its share of drives with a sack or a big
tackle for loss.
Why Wisconsin Might Win:
Wisconsin's running game is just a wee
step up in production from what Iowa has
faced so far. You and three friends
could stop the running games of Northern
Illinois, Syracuse and Iowa State. If
the Badgers get up by any appreciable
lead, it's over. Iowa's offensive line
is young, inconsistent, and needs a lot
of time. QB Jake Chrstensen is a good
one, but he's not given much time to
breathe and doesn't have any receiving
weapons to work with.
Who to Watch: It'll be this
simple: Who'll win the battle between
the UW offensive line and the Iowa
defensive line. Hawkeye DE Ken Iwebama
has returned to his preinjury form,
terrorizing backfield as one of the Big
Ten's premier pass rushers. Bryan
Mattison might be the league's quickest
tackle, and he's fantastic at blowing up
running plays before they hit the line.
Wisconsin will try to man up and pound
the ball with P.J. Hill, but it'll also
try to get Donovan on the move on the
outside. Donovan filled in last year for
Stocco, and threw for 228 yards and two
touchdowns, and ran for 61 yards, in
Iowa City. He has to be on early with
his receivers, or the Hawkeyes will
bring the house to stop Hill.
What Will Happen: Wisconsin's
defense will finally show up and stuff
the Iowa offense, but Hill and the
running game aren't going to rumble
until late. This game is on Donovan, and
while he'll take five sacks, he'll also
beat the Iowa secondary for two
touchdown passes. UW TE Travis Beckum
will have a huge day.
CFN Prediction:
Wisconsin
24
... Iowa 16 ...
Line: Wisconsin -7.5
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your
Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation)
...
3.5
Purdue
(3-0)
at Minnesota
(1-2)
9:00 PM ESPN2
Why to Watch: After
a long day of college football watching,
sit back, relax, and enjoy the guilty
pleasure game of the day. If you want a
defensive slugfest, look elsewhere.
Minnesota can't stop anyone from
throwing the ball, allowing over 400
passing yards in each of its first three
games, but it should be able to keep up
the pace with an explosive attack of its
own. The Tim Brewster era hasn't exactly
started off smoothly with two overtime
games against MAC teams, followed up by
the indignity of a 42-39 loss to Florida
Atlantic. Purdue has been fantastic in
its first three games scoring 52 on
Toledo, 52 on Eastern Illinois, and 45
against Central Michigan. With a
punchless Notre Dame up next, the
Boilermakers have an honest shot at a
5-0 start before hosting Ohio State.
Why Purdue Might Win: Again,
Minnesota has allowed over 400 passing
yards to Bowling Green, Miami
University, and Florida Atlantic. Those
three aren't exactly going to challenge
Hawaii and Texas Tech for the top spot
on the passing charts. There's no pass
rush, and there's no production
whatsoever from the back seven on throws
of any kind. As ugly as the pass defense
has been, the Gophers' biggest problem
has been turnover margin, giving it away
12 times and only forcing three
turnovers. The last thing the Purdue
offense needs is a chance here and there
at an easy scoring opportunity.
Why Minnesota Might Win:
Lost in all the problems over the first
three games has been a great start by
the offensive line. The running game has
been fine, and the pass protection
stellar. QB Adam Weber has rarely been
touched, and has been allowed to quickly
develop over the first three games after
being thrown into the fire. The Gophers
have a balanced offense that'll put it
all together at some point and put some
mega numbers on the board, but at the
moment, it's mistake-prone and wildly
inconsistent. If all the parts come
together, the balanced attack could
crank out 600 yards in a shootout like
this.
Who to Watch: America needs to be
introduced to Curtis Painter. The junior
originally took over the Purdue starting
quarterback job two years ago because he
could make the pitch on the option
better than Brandon Kirsch, and he's
grown into one of the nation's most
effective passers. How good has be been?
In three games, he's completed 69% of
his passes for 952 yards and 13
touchdowns with no interceptions. Few
passers spread the ball as well as he
does, and few are making better
decisions. Don't be shocked if he comes
close to bombing away for 500 yards.
What Will Happen: Well over 1,000
yards of total offense, close to 100
points, and lots and lots and lots of
big plays. Purdue will make more of
them. A lot more.
CFN Prediction:
Purdue
58 ... Minnesota 40
... Line: Purdue -14
Must See Rating: (5 Curb Your
Enthusiasm - 1 Kid Nation)
... 3
Big 10 Week
Four Predictions, Part 1
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