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SMU
(1-2)
at TCU
(1-2) 8:30
PM CSTV
Why to watch:
After three games, few schools
other than Michigan and Notre
Dame have been more
disappointing this season than
TCU. Ranked to start the season
and considered by many to be the
premier non-BCS program of 2007,
the Horned Frogs disappeared in
the second half of the Texas
game and then lost the Mountain
West opener to Air Force. With
dreams of a BCS bowl run long
gone, they’ve got to refocus on
the fly before a once-promising
season completely slips away.
Long-time rival SMU has some
regrouping of its own to do if
it has any chance for a bowl
game. The Mustangs’ only win of
the year over lowly North Texas
has been sandwiched by
disheartening losses to Texas
Tech and Arkansas State. While
the offense is displaying a
pulse, the defense has been
horrid, showing no sign that
it’s adapting to wholesale
turnover along the defensive
line.
Why SMU might win: If
star RB Aaron Brown can’t get
back on the field, the Horned
Frogs simply don’t appear
capable of out scoring the
Mustangs the way they’re
currently constructed. Freshman
Andy Dalton has been ineffective
behind center, and Brown’s
replacements in the backfield
have not hit holes with any
authority. TCU is averaging
just 19 points a game, which
won’t be enough against an SMU
offense that’s begun to
percolate with Justin Willis at
the controls. The Mustangs have
scored 73 points over the last
two weeks, getting six touchdown
passes and 760 total yards from
their sophomore leader.
Why TCU might win: Yes,
the Frogs are stumbling on
offense, but the Mustangs will
be the perfect remedy. SMU is
allowing almost 42 points a
game, and is ranked 117th
in the country in total
defense. Arkansas State just
got done shredding the feeble
unit for 516 balanced yards and
45 points in a runaway victory.
Even with issues on a patchwork
offensive line and Brown at less
than 100%, TCU will find away to
get healthy at the expense of
one of the nation’s most hapless
defenses.
Who to watch: This is a
turning point game for Dalton,
who has the support of the
coaching staff, but needs to
start making better decisions
and more plays downfield. His
interception late in regulation
as the Frogs were driving for
the win is the type of play that
needs to be corrected. Against
an SMU defense that won’t apply
much pressure and is horrible in
coverage, Dalton should have the
best game of his brief career.
What will happen: Defense
still wins games, and in that
area, the Horned Frogs enjoy a
decided advantage over SMU.
They’ll keep Willis from going
berserk, and get enough on
offense to prevent a three-game
losing streak.
CFN Prediction:
TCU
35 … SMU 10
...
Line: TCU -19.5
Must See Rating: (5
Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1
Kid Nation) ...
1.5
Utah
(1-2) at UNLV
(1-2) 10:00
PM
Why to watch:
Oh how things can quickly
change. A badly banged up Utah
team appeared dead in the water
with a seemingly impossible game
against UCLA to deal with. One
44-6 win later, and now the Utes
are hoping to be back on track
and ready to make some noise in
Mountain West play. On the other
side, UNLV is still looking for
a breakthrough win. All the good
vibes after the near-miss in a
20-13 loss to Wisconsin got
blown away by Hawaii in a 49-14
loss. This is a young team
looking to build, but it needs
something positive to happen in
a hurry or there will be a new
coaching staff in Vegas next
year.
Why Utah might win: UNLV
can't score. The offense is able
to move the ball a bit and crank
out yards, but the points aren't
coming. Only getting 13 on
Wisconsin is one thing, but not
being able to get more than 14
on Hawaii at home in
unacceptable. Utah has done a
phenomenal job against the short
to midrange passes, and that's
all UNLV is able to do. If the
Ute defense plays like is has
over the first three weeks, this
will be really ugly, really
fast.
Why UNLV might win: UCLA
game aside, this is still a
very, very banged up Utah team.
While it exploded against the
Bruins, there are still plenty
of question marks about
consistency. Can the offense
produce as well when the defense
isn't coming up with five
turnovers? The Rebel pass
defense should be just good
enough to keep Utah from bombing
away like it did last week.
Who to watch: The Utah
running game might sink or swim
with Darrell Mack for a while.
The pounding sophomore cranked
out 107 yards and a touchdown on
19 carries last week, and while
he might be a 100-yard regular,
he should be just effective
enough to keep Tommy Grady from
having to force his throws.
After a rough first few games,
Grady looked comfortable against
UCLA, throwing for 246 yards and
three touchdowns. He has to
avoid pressing, and he has to
make the receivers around him
shine. He has the weapons to
work with; now he has to use
them.
What will happen: Utah
won't play at last week's level
again, but it won't need to.
UNLV is on the verge of blowing
up. At some point over the next
month, the offense is going to
finally kick in, but it won't be
this week. The Ute defense will
be too effective against the
Rebel passing game.
CFN Prediction:
Utah
26 ... UNLV 13... Line:
Utah -8.5
Must See Rating: (5
Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1
Kid Nation) ...
2
Wyoming (2-1) at Ohio
(2-1)
3:30 PM
Why to Watch:
Wyoming is still worrying about
last week’s loss to Boise State,
still believing the BSU athletic
department pumped crowd noise
and music through the stadium
speakers while the Cowboy
offense had the ball. If that
kind of Belichick-esque behavior
was suspected in Idaho, imagine
what might be possible in Ohio.
Okay, so that’s a little
contrived, but it’s safe to say
UW is a little annoyed right
now. The 2-1 teams could each
desperately use this win to stay
in the hunt for a bowl bid,
while the loser won’t be able to
make too many mistakes in
conference play.
Why Wyoming Might Win:
The Cowboys are tenth in the
nation in total defense (227.7
yards/game) and have allowed
rivals to convert on third down
only 21.4% of the time,
fourth-best in America. Wyoming
wants to hit the Bobcats with
its “Thunder and Lightning”
backfield combination of Wynel
Seldon (Thunder, 178 yards) and
Devin Moore (Lightning, 237) and
then send QB Karsten Sween over
the top with the passing game –
provided he makes better
decisions with the ball. Still
trying to find his consistency,
the spotlight will be on Sween
to come through on the road.
Look for late fireworks from the
Cowboys, who have outscored
rivals 39-3 in the fourth
quarter.
Why Ohio Might Win: The
Bobcats have a more potent
attack than last year thanks to
improved quarterback play with
Brad Bower (59.4% completion
rate) taking the helm. As
always, it’ll be up to Kalvin
McRae (281 yards, 6 TDs, 10
receptions) to lead the way, and
if he’s controlling the tempo,
that means things have broken
down for the suddenly stingy UW
defense that held BSU’s Ian
Johnson in check. Ohio hung
tough with Virginia Tech last
week, locking up the Hokies at
the half, 7-7, before falling
apart after intermission in a
28-7 loss. The key for the
Bobcats is their defense, which
is giving up 445.3 yards and
allowed true freshman VT
quarterback Tyrod Taylor to
throw for 287 yards last week in
his first-ever start.
Who to Watch: Junior free
safety Quincy Rogers started
four games last year and had a
career-best eight tackles
against Syracuse. But he outdid
himself last week against Boise
State, racking up 14 stops, to
give him 23 on the season. It’ll
be his job to make sure McRae’s
production is kept to a minimum,
while making sure Bower isn’t
finding his targets across the
middle. This is Rogers’ defense
at the moment, and he’ll be the
tone-setter.
What Will Happen: Will
Ohio’s defense hold up? Yes, but
the Cowboy defense will be
better. Wyoming will make more
mistakes, but the defense will
clean up the messes and hang on
late.
CFN Prediction:
Wyoming
24 … Ohio 20
... Line: Wyoming -3.5
Must See Rating: (5
Curb Your Enthusiasm - 1
Kid Nation) ...
2
Mountain West Fearless Predictions, Week
Two, Part 1 |
