This is yet another down weekend for good games around the country. There are a couple which could be entertaining, but there isn’t a single killer matchup out there, and there are only a few which look good. Fortunately, next week will be a lot better, so be patient. Things will turn up very soon.
Oregon State @ Arizona State (-11.5)
(preseason pick: ASU)
At first glance, this looks like a blowout waiting to happen. ASU has been on fire, playing very well on both sides of the ball. And Oregon State has really struggled, getting totally exposed at Cincinnati as a team that simply doesn’t have the horses to compete with the best. Sean Canfield already looks like another Beaver QB who will spend his first year starting sinking the team with bad picks week after week. And the Beaver pass D hasn’t been great at any point this year, which is terrible for them going into Tempe to face Rudy Carpenter and a talented Sun Devil receiving corps.
On the Other Hand:
Don’t judge the Beavers too much based on just one game. This is still a team with a lot of talent, especially on defense. If they can get a few breaks, and if they can get Yvenson Bernard going, they’re capable of staying in this thing and maybe pulling off the shocker.
Bottom Line:
There’s no good reason to expect this game to be close. ASU will stack the box, shut down the running game, and make hay picking off bad passes from Canfield and throwing it down the field against a mediocre Beaver secondary. This won’t take long to be over.
@ Arizona St 45, Oregon St 7
Washington @ UCLA (-6)
(preseason pick: UCLA)
The “Redemption Bowl” is what this game ought to be called, with a pair of teams coming off nasty losses going up against each other looking to turn things around with a win. On paper, UCLA looks to have a huge edge. They certainly are up in the talent department, and they also have a lot of experience, which will help them get back their focus. They have the defense to shut down Jake Locker, and if Ben Olson is on again this week, they’ve got a potent enough offensive attack to exploit the weaknesses in the Husky D.
On the Other Hand:
Don’t forget how badly the Bruins laid down and died last week in Salt Lake City. That’s one of those experiences that a team will either bounce back from with a vengeance, or let it fester and completely destroy everything they’ve worked to achieve. If it’s the latter, UCLA is in very big trouble. The Huskies may have issues on D, but they still have some serious talent on offense, so if the Bruins aren’t ready to play, they’re going to suffer another loss no one saw coming before the start of the season.
Bottom Line:
These two teams have had a real penchant for games that go down to the wire. However, this time UCLA has too much talent, and will be fired up to show that they’re past last week’s disgraceful effort. U-Dub won’t catch them napping this time around.
@ UCLA 31, Washington 14
Oregon (-17) @ Stanford
(preseason pick: UO)
Oregon comes into Stanford red-hot, riding a three game winning streak in which they’ve flat-out crushed their opposition game after game after game. Dennis Dixon has been fantastic, Jonathan Stewart has been great, and the receiving corps has really stepped it up, and the defense has been a huge surprise. So far, this team has easily been one of the top 10 teams in the country, which easily explains why they’re a heavy favorite, even on the road.
On the Other Hand:
Stanford has been surprisingly not bad. They actually seemed to have found a defense last week against San Jose State, which is a huge improvement from what they’re used to seeing. And the offense has gotten better and better, with a senior quarterback, a talented receiving corps, and a really good young running back in Gerhart. It’s way too early to tell, but this team could be a lot better than expected, and they’re going to try and make a big statement here.
Bottom Line:
Oregon is just too good to lose this game, or even get a serious scare. However, it’s really starting to look like Stanford may be decent, and at home, that should be enough for them to keep it respectable.
Oregon 31, @ Stanford 17
Washington St @ USC (-25)
(preseason pick: USC)
The snoozer of the week. It’s obvious that USC can do what they want in this game; the only question is whether they feel like going all out and blowing the Cougars out of the water or doing “just enough” to win by, say, 17 to 21 points. My guess? They hover around the line and one team gets a score late to get the cheap cover. I think the line is a point of two low, so I’ll guess the Trojans.
@ USC 38, Washington St 10
Arizona @ Cal (-14)
(preseason pick: Arizona)
On paper, this one looks just as ugly as the Wazzu – USC game. Cal is 3-0, highly ranked, has a fantastic offense, and looks good to go. Arizona is 1-2, barely functional, and has so far probably been one the worst team in the league (though Oregon State has given them a bit of a run). Cal has Desean Jackson, Justin Forsett, Nate Longshore, and more talent than you can shake a stick at. U of A has an underachieving defense, a sputtering offense, and a head coach doing a better job getting flagged for personal fouls than actual coaching. An easy win, right?
On the Other Hand:
There are a couple of reasons to think that this might not be the case. First of all, Cal has a huge road game next week at Oregon, which means that they certainly won’t be pulling out all the stops in this one. But just as importantly, Arizona is a team that has really been underachieving, and teams like that are dangerous, because they can turn it on really quickly at times. And the Wildcats still have a massive amount of talent on defense, plus an offense that still isn’t good but has at least been improving. They’re a lot more dangerous than people think.
Bottom Line:
Cal has had a nasty tendency to not cover, and combine that with the feeling that this is a trap game, and it’s really easy to see this being a lot close than anyone expects. The Wildcats will be desperate after starting the year 1-2, so expect them to give this one everything they have, which will be enough to make this a game until the very end.
@ Cal 28, Arizona 17
National Game of the Week:
South Carolina @ LSU (-18)
Sure, the Tigers have been fantastic, but 18 points is a hell of a lot to lay against a talented team led by the Ole Ballcoach. And the Carolina defense should be more than good enough to keep the Tigers from blowing this one open. LSU is too good to expect an upset, but I definitely expect this one to be close late, and I wouldn’t consider it a major shocker if the Gamecocks actually pulled it out.
@ LSU 24, South Carolina 17
Georgia @ Alabama (-3.5)
So do I go with the rising Tide at home, or do I go with the Bulldogs, who still have a bunch of talent, and are always good for a big road upset or two? Actually, I’ll split the different and pick a close game with the Tide pulling it out at the end.
@ Alabama 24, Georgia 21
Bad Lines
Duke +14
I really don’t get this one. Navy traditionally is mediocre at home (see last week against Ball State), and this line is bigger than Navy had against Ball St (little if any better than the Blue Devils) and that Duke had against Northwestern (little if any better than Navy). Plus Duke just won and Navy just lost. I just don’t buy a double-digit line here.
Georgia Tech -3.5
With how well the Yellow Jackets have played, and how poor UVA has been, I’m really surprised this is less than a touchdown. Sure, the Cavs are usually good for a big home upset or two each year, but this really seems like a stretch.
Pitt -9.5
How is this less than a double-digit line? Pitt has been rolling so far, and is strong at home, and UConn has been mediocre at absolute best. Even if the game had been at UConn, I’d have considered laying ten or so, but at Pitt? It just seems far too low.
Tenn -20
After the way Florida ran it up late, expect the Vols to be really fired up against an Arkansas State team that is getting a bit too much respect from Vegas for that one game against Texas (the same Texas team who struggled so badly against UCF last week).
Syracuse +36.5
The Cuse are absolutely, positively terrible, and are probably the worst BCS team in the country. However, this is over 5 touchdowns we’re talking about, and this is a Louisville team about to face a team with at least a small pulse in NC State. Unless they go all out to run it up as much as humanly possible, this line just seems like a big overreaction to Syracuses’ struggles.
Air Force +11.5
Yeah, the Zoomies have been doing it with smoke, mirrors, and a lot of luck, but BYU has been pretty busy manufacturing luck for the other guys, and at any rate, a team as hot as Air Force against a team as cold as BYU shouldn’t be getting double-digits.
Ole Miss +23
Yes, Florida is great, but they haven’t been on the road yet, and they have consecutive games coming up against Auburn (revenge even if the Tigers haven’t been good) and LSU (huge, huge game). I find it hard to believe they’ll be putting their all into this one, which means that this should end up with a margin between two and three touchdowns.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com