This is a fantastic weekend for Pac-10 football, with a huge marquee matchup in Eugene and a couple other intriguing games. With luck, this could be a weekend to remember.
Cal @ Oregon (-6.5)
(preseason pick: UO)
This is obviously the game of the week, not just in the Pac-10, but around the country. Cal brings their high powered offense and solid reputation into Autzen to face a Duck team that has been fantastic the past few weeks. The Ducks have simply been rolling, blasting away team after team after team with a nearly unstoppable offense and a defense that makes a lot of big plays. If Autzen is rocking and the Ducks bring their "A" game, is it possible for anyone to beat them, let alone a flawed team like Cal?
On the Other Hand:
You can't count out a team like Cal. They have struggled a bit so far, and their defense is behind the pace, but they still have incredible potential, and if their offense gets going, they're very capable of winning a track meet.
Bottom Line:
Cal is a good team, but Oregon is a great team at home in one of the most imposing venues in college football. That'll be more than enough to hold off the upset bid.
@ Oregon 42, Cal 31
UCLA @ Oregon St(-2)
(preseason pick: UCLA)
This is an interesting matchup between a pair of teams that right now have similar identities, led by solid defenses and potent running games. On paper, UCLA looks like the better team, with a more talented defense, a running game at least as effective as OS's so far, and a quarterback who, while not great, hasn't been sinking his team with terrible picks.
On the Other Hand:
Can UCLA win on the road? Two weeks ago they played a Utah team that had been absolutely terrible (and was terrible after the game as well) and got totally waxed. If they face an early deficit, if some of the breaks go agianst them, will they rise up and overcome or will they choke it all away again?
Bottom Line:
UCLA's heart remains a major question, but the talent difference is just oo great to overcome.
UCLA 24, @ Oregon St 14
Arizona St (-14.5) @ Stanford
(preseason pick: Stanford)
At first glance, this looks like a blowout waiting to happen. ASU has been rolling, and is considered to be a contender for the top of the league alongside the usual suspects. The defense has been good, Ryan Torain is a very good running back, and Rudy Carpenter remains a talented quarterback. Meanwhile Stanford hasn't been very good, and has been affected by injuries to boot.
On the Other Hand:
ASU is generally poor on the road, which is a huge deal until proven otherwise. Moreover, they have done a poor job with turnovers and penalties, which is unlikely to get better in their first road game of the year. And against a team that they aren't likely to take seriously, but that has actually been playing decently, that's a dangerous combination.
Bottom Line:
The upset is very tempting, but there are a few too many Cardinal injuries to overcome. ASU will make a few mistakes, but they'll make enough big plays to overcome them.
Arizona St 31, @ Stanford 23
Washington St @ Arizona (3)
(preseason pick: Arizona)
It's tough to see why people like the Wildcats here. They really haven't been playing well at all, and while the Cougars are clearly lower-division, they generally play well on the road and have a good enough quarterback to overcome a Wildcat team that still needs to find its identity.
Washington St 28, @ Arizona 17
USC (-20) @ Washington
(preseason pick: USC)
The only real question here is who covers the spread. The Trojans are good enough to cover, but they aren't good enough to cover with their second team. They'll build a comfortable lead, but Jake Locker and the Huskies will do enought o make it respectable.
USC 31, @ Washington 17
National Game of the Week:
Alabama vs Florida St(-2)
The Tide has been better, which means that they ought to win a close one.
Alabama 24, Florida St 21
Michigan St @ Wisconsin (-7.5)
I'm extraordinarily tempted to take the Spartans here, given how poorly the Badgers have been playing lately. The points are obvious, but home-field plus actually being a better team adds up to enough of an edge to take the Badgers overall.
@ Wisconsin 21, Michigan St 17
Bad Lines
Air Force +2.5
Navy is struggling, barely beat Ball State and nearly lost to Duke. Meanwhile Air Force took two of three from the Mountain West's best. And they're getting points.
Colorado St +10
This line makes absolutely no sense. TCU is still getting major reputation points here, because there's no way they've played much (if indeed at all) better than the Rams.
Virginia -5.5
Part of this is a reaction to the awful Pitt loss against UConn, but part of it is that UVA has actually started to play well. If the Cavs are the better team (which looks to be true right now), and they always play much better at home than away, then this seems a few points too low.
Maryland +18
I've got to see Rutgers beat someone decent before I can come close to justifying anything nearly this high.
Florida -17.5
Auburn has been terrible, this is their first road game, and it looks like the Gators aren't afraid to run it up when they want too (see: Tennessee). Throw in revenge and this could get really ugly.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com