This was a really great weekend for football. Cal – Oregon was a great highlight game, and around the country there were upsets galore. This was without a doubt one of the most exciting weekends we’ve seen in a long time.
Rising:
Arizona: Wazzu isn’t great this year, but this was still a huge step forward for the Wildcats.
Arizona St: They needed to show they could win on the road, and boy did they ever.
Cal: This was a huge win for the Bears over Oregon.
Washington: They didn’t win, but they were extremely competitive against USC, which is a big step forwards.
Hovering:
UCLA: This was a big win for their psyches, although in fairness the Beavers did a lot more to lose it than UCLA did to win it.
Falling:
USC: The #1 team in the country isn’t supposed to eke out a win against the same team that Ohio State and UCLA handled without too many problems.
Oregon: This was a respectable loss, but for how well they had been playing it’s a big dropoff.
Washington St: Yuck.
Oregon St: Just a major stinker against UCLA.
Stanford: Right back into the toilet they go.
Cal 31, @ Oregon (-6.5) 24
(my pick: @ Oregon 42, Cal 31)
This was easily one of the best games of the week. It was a defensive struggle early, with the Ducks leading 3-0 after the first quarter and 10-7 at the half. However, in the second half it was all offense, with both teams exploding onto the scoreboard. In the end, Cal got too many big plays from DeSean Jackson and too many big turnovers to be denied.
What to take from this:
If you’re Cal:
This was a huge win for Cal. Beating a team that was been playing as well as the Ducks have on their own field is one of the biggest wins anyone has had this year. This game has deservedly vaulted the Bears right near the top of the polls.
If you’re Oregon:
The Ducks have to feel that they gave this game away, and they’re probably right, with four turnovers, the last two of which (a Dixon pick which Cal got a touchdown off of and then the Colvin end-zone fumble) were the difference. If this was simply the week where they were off, then it’s not a big deal. But if they keep on making untimely mistakes, then they’re going to quickly go from a top 10 team to something a lot more mediocre.
UCLA 40, @ Oregon St(-2) 14
(my pick: UCLA 24, @ Oregon St 14)
For the second straight week, Oregon State jumped off to a big early lead, and then watched it evaporate in a flood of mistakes as UCLA turned a deficit after three quarters into a total rout by taking advantage of every miscue that the Beavers committed in the fourth quarter.
What to take from this:
If you’re UCLA:
It’s a nice morale boost to be able to come from behind on the road. That said, this wasn’t a great effort by UCLA. Oregon State gift-wrapped this game, and it’s unlikely anyone else will be so generous. This wasn’t a bad effort, but they need to up their level of play with Notre Dame and Cal coming up in the next two games.
If you’re Oregon St:
The good news is that they were competitive for a lot longer than last week. The bad news is that for the third straight 1-A game (ignoring the scrimmage against Idaho St), they collapsed in a sea of turnovers. Either they turn this around or they might not win another game.
Arizona St (-14.5) 41, @ Stanford 3
(my pick: Arizona St 31, @ Stanford 23)
This was an example of near-total domination. ASU dominated on offense, they dominated on defense, they dominated on turnovers, and the scoreboard reflected it.
What to take from this:
If you’re Arizona St:
The level of competition wasn’t the greatest, but this was still an important win, because it established that this team can win on the road. They’re going to have some tough games away from the desert, and this was a big step towards proving that they are capable of making noise in a hostile environment.
If you’re Stanford:
The run game did nothing, the pass game didn’t do much, and the defense got torched. It’s looking more and more clear that this team isn’t capable of competing against good teams who aren’t overlooking them.
@ Arizona (-3) 48, Washington St 20
(my pick: Washington St 28, @ Arizona 17)
For a while, this game looked like it was anyone’s game. The Wildcats were up at halftime, but Wazzu tied it up quickly in the third quarter and looked like they might be able to take control. However, Arizona answered the bell with a quick score of their own and then their defense took over, shutting down the Cougars the rest of the way to turn a close game into a rout.
What to take from this:
If you’re Washington St:
The run defense is a huge concern. Arizona isn’t remotely good at running the ball, but churned out way too many good runs. Over a 6.0 ypc without any gains over 20 means that U of A’s line dominated. That can’t continue if the Cougars want to start winning games.
If you’re Arizona:
There are still some issues, and the defense once again looks far shakier than it is supposed to be. That said, the offense played very well, Tuitama had a huge game, and it looks like they might have finally found a rushing attack too. There’s a lot of work to be done, but this is a heck of a first step forwards.
USC (-20) 27, @ Washington 24
(my pick: USC 31, @ Washington 17)
This was a surprisingly good game. USC looked good early on, taking an early lead and always pushing forward, but Washington was able to answer the bell every time they needed to keep themselves in the game up until the very end.
What to take from this:
If you’re USC:
This had better have been an aberration. Three turnovers, a blocked kick, and over 150 yards of penalties is the type of performance that will get them beat if it happens again. Their defense helped bail them out, but they were lucky to walk out with a win, and they really need to focus and play sounder football, or else.
If you’re Washington:
This is a tough loss to swallow. USC’s defense played great, but the Trojans almost seemed to be trying to give it away at times with all of their mistakes, and the Huskies couldn’t capitalize. How they respond to this game will be vital to their season. If they get their heads down and start kicking themselves for their missed opportunities, they’re in trouble. But if they view this game as a learning experience and proof that they’re capable of springing a major upset when things break right, don’t be surprised if they pull a major shocker in the next two weeks.
Pac-10 Games Record:
This Week: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS
Season: 30-7 SU, 18-17 ATS
National Games of the Week:
Florida St(-2) 21, Alabama 14
(my pick: Alabama 24, Florida St 21)
@ Wisconsin (-7.5) 37, Michigan St 34
(my pick: @ Wisconsin 21, Michigan St 17)
National Games Record:
This Week: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS
Season: 8-7 SU, 8-7 ATS
Bad Lines
Air Force +2.5
Missed by 8.5 points
Colorado St +10
Missed by 2 points
Virginia -5.5
Covered by 24.5 points
Maryland +18
Covered by 28 points and outright upset
Florida -17.5
Missed by 20.5 points and outright upset
Bad Lines Record
This week: 2-3
Season: 9-9
My Top 25:
1) LSU (5-0): @ Tulane: W 34-9
2) USC (4-0): @ Wash: W 27-24
3) Ohio St (5-0): @ Minn: W 30-7
Maybe I’m crazy, but I’m really starting to think that the Buckeyes may actually deserve to be ranked above USC. If they do well at Purdue while USC basically gets a bye, there’s a good chance they jump another slot.
4) Cal (5-0): @ UO: W 31-24
5) BC (4-0): vs AA: W 24-14
6) Oregon (4-1): vs Cal: L 24-31
They don’t drop far, partially because of how good they’ve been, but also largely due to a lot of other top teams having significantly worse losses.
7) USF (4-0): vs WV: W 21-13
The wins are against decent teams, but for some reason it feels like this team is doing it with smoke, mirrors, and lucky breaks.
8) Arizona St (5-0): @ Stan: W 41-3
9) Oklahoma (4-1): @ Colorado: L 24-27
10) South Carolina (4-1): vs Miss St: W 38-21
11) Kentucky (5-0): vs FAU: W 45-17
These two are basically neck and neck resume-wise. Their meeting this week should change that, one way or the other.
11) Georgia (4-1): vs Ole Miss: W 45-17
12) Cincinnati (5-0): @ SD St: W 52-23
13) Wisconsin (5-0): vs Mich St: W 37-34
Yet another lackluster win for the Badgers. There’s no way they survive the two-week road trip unless they start to play a lot better very quickly.
14) Missouri (4-0): BYE
15) Michigan State (4-1): @ Wisc: L 34-37
16) Florida (4-1): vs Aub: L 17-20
Just a terrible loss, especially given how bad Auburn has been the past couple weeks.
17) WV (4-1): @ USF: L 13-21
18) Kansas (4-0): BYE
When the top 25 is a bloodbath, sometimes all you need to do is nothing to make a big move up. Plus I just can’t justify putting Purdue above Kansas after looking at the two resumes side by side.
19) Purdue (5-0): vs ND: W 33-19
The Irish showed way too many signs of life here, especially given that Purdue’s schedule has been little tougher than, say, Kansas’.
20) Kansas St (3-1): @ Texas: W 41-21
21) Florida St (3-1): vs Bama: W 21-14
22) UCLA (4-1) @ OS: W 40-14
The Utah loss was terrible, but they’re playing well again.
23) Hawaii (5-0): @ Idaho: W 48-20
24) Virginia (4-1): vs Pitt: W 44-14
I dunno, I think I’m running out of good ideas at this point. The Cavs haven’t been great, but then again, who has?
25) UConn (5-0): vs Akron: W 44-10
Dropped Out:
12) Texas
19) Alabama
20) Rutgers
21) Clemson
23) Penn St
On the Cusp:
Auburn, Illinois, Miami, Nebraska, Texas
Last Week:
1) LSU (4-0):
2) Oklahoma (4-0):
3) USC (3-0):
4) Florida (4-0):
5) WV (4-0):
6) Ohio St (4-0):
7) Oregon (4-0):
8) BC (4-0):
9) Cal (4-0):
10) South Carolina (3-1):
11) Kentucky (4-0):
12) Texas (4-0):
13) Georgia (3-1):
14) USF (3-0):
15) Cincinnati (4-0):
16) Wisconsin (4-0):
17) Arizona St (4-0):
18) Michigan State (4-0):
19) Alabama (3-1):
20) Rutgers (3-0):
21) Clemson (4-0):
22) Purdue (4-0):
23) Penn St (3-1):
24) Hawaii (4-0):
25) Missouri (4-0):
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
