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Iowa
(2-3)
at Penn State
(3-2)
3:30
PM ABC
Why to watch:
It's do or die time for two teams
thinking Big Ten title coming into the
year, but now are battling to get out of
the cellar. Iowa's woes can be forgiven,
to a point, with a bizarre rash of
injuries and suspensions killing the
offense, while the defense hasn't been
able to pick up the slack in losses to
Wisconsin and Indiana. Combined with a
horrible loss to Iowa State, and the
season is one game away from going into
the tank. Penn State has been the far
bigger disappointment, failing to get
enough on offense against Michigan and
turning it over four times against
Illinois. However, with Wisconsin, Ohio
State and Purdue left on the schedule,
time hasn't run out quite yet. Iowa has
owned the series, winning five straight,
with the last game two years ago in a
bizarre 6-4 slugfest.
Why Iowa might win: After the
first three games, the question was
whether or not Penn State's offense
could work on a real defense, or it it
was just putting up big numbers on bad
teams. As it turns out, the offense has
issues, big ones, from QB Anthony
Morelli's inability to get the passing
game working consistently, to the
mediocre running game that's still
trying to find an answer with Austin
Scott continually putting it on the
ground. The Hawkeye defense has been
stellar so far, outside of allowing two
long touchdowns against Indiana, led by
a killer defensive front. Penn State
won't be able to run the ball, meaning
it'll be Morelli or bust. That's a good
thing for Iowa. Speaking of offense ...
Why Penn State might win: Iowa's
simply isn't working. Consider it a
minor miracle that QB Jake Christensen
was able to throw for 308 yards and
three touchdowns last week against
Indiana. The receiving corps has been
completely gutted, even though there are
a slew of interesting, athletic
playmakers just needing more time, but
the real problem has been an offensive
line that's getting Christensen killed.
Penn State should be able to crank out
at least five sacks, while the
linebacking corps will all but erase
Albert Young and the ground game.
Who to watch: Is it Morelli, or
is it the receivers? Morelli isn't
getting a ton of help, with a few
dropped passes here and there against
Illinois killing drives, but there
hasn't been a spark to get the passing
game going. Morelli threw for close to
300 yards against Illinois, but he also
threw three picks, coming off a rough
day against Michigan when he failed to
push the ball deep. While he's still the
unquestioned starter, at least in the
eyes of the coaching staff, that could
quickly change with a rough outing. The
more mobile Daryll Clark might start to
see a little bit of time, while Pat
Devlin, the future of the program, could
find his way on the field if things
start to go in the tank.
What will happen: Don't expect
fireworks. Penn State will get one key
play on special teams, and will get just
enough pressure in the backfield, to
slug its way to a win that'll
temporarily stop the bleeding, but will
still keep the current concerns going.
CFN Prediction:
Penn State
24 ... Iowa 13... Line:
Penn State -8
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
2.5
Eastern Michigan
(2-3) at Michigan
(3-2)
12:00
PM Big Ten Network
Why to watch:
With a three game winning streak and a
2-0 Big Ten record, the leak appears to
be plugged in the Michigan ship, for
now. There's that strange problem of a
possible forfeit against Penn State
possibly screwing things up (with a
ruling waiting to be handed down after
allowing an academically ineligible
player to see the field), and things
haven't exactly gone smoothly with the
offense, but still this is a happy place
for the Wolverines after the horrendous
start. The last time they faced a MAC
team, they needed everything in the bag
to beat Ball State at the end of last
year, but it'll take something truly
strange for them to have any problems
with an Eastern Michigan team that
hasn't done squat on offense so far.
Michigan needs an easy blowout to feel
better about itself, while the Eagles
will take anything positive they can
get.
Why Eastern Michigan might win:
Let's just say Michigan isn't playing up
to its potential. For all the offensive
talent, and all the all-timer skill
players, things simply aren't clicking
like they're supposed to. EMU is playing
the best defense, by far, than it has in
several years, with a decent enough line
to generate a little bit of pressure,
and strong play so far from the
secondary. Oh sure, Michigan should win,
but it's probably going to be yet
another tough struggle to blow up on O.
Why Michigan might win: The
Eagles can't score. Against D-I/FBS
teams, they're averaging just under 12
points per outing thanks to an equal
blend of mediocre rushing and
inefficient passing. There simply aren't
any playmakers to keep the chains
moving, or provide the pop needed if and
when the Wolverines get up by two
touchdowns. There's no threat whatsoever
of a passing game to give a push to the
Wolverine secondary.
Who to watch: Does Michigan have
a quarterback problem? Chad Henne
returned from his knee injury to start
against Northwestern, throwing for 193
yards and three touchdowns in an
efficient performance. However, Ryan
Mallett is still getting work, and
there's still a thought that Henne's a
few lousy drives from getting yanked for
an extended period of time. This is a
vital game for Henne and the passing
game. He has to come out and go lights
out to cement his status as the
triggerman for the offense, and to show
that there's no need to build for the
future quite yet.
What will happen: This is the
game Michigan fans have been waiting
for. It'll be a true breather that's
over by halftime, and for a brief
moment, Michigan will look like Michigan
again.
CFN Prediction:
Michigan 45
... Eastern Michigan 10
... Line:
Michigan -31.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
1.5
Northwestern (2-3) at Michigan State
(4-1)
12:00
PM Big Ten Network
Why to watch:
The last time we saw these two, Michigan
State was pulling off the biggest
comeback in college football history,
coming from down 38-3 to win 41-38 as
the last positive moment in the John L.
Smith era. This is certainly a new
season and a new Michigan State team,
playing far better under head coach Mark
Dantonio, but this is a critical time.
Past Spartan teams went into the tank
after losing a tough battle like the one
in Madison last week, a 37-34 Wisconsin
win, and while this year's squad doesn't
appear to be the slightest bit flaky,
losing to Northwestern at home wouldn't
be a good sign. The Wildcats are on a
three-game losing streak, going from the
lowest of the low, losing at home to
Duke, to acceptable losses to Ohio State
and Michigan. With Minnesota and Eastern
Michigan coming up, a win in East
Lansing could spark a nice run.
Why Northwestern might win: The
run defense has been excellent so far.
Michigan's Mike Hart got his 100 yards
last week, but it was a struggle. The
Wildcat linebackers are doing a nice job
of swarming, and keeping short runs from
turning into backbreakers. There hasn't
been much of a Northwestern pass rush so
far, but that could change a bit this
week against an MSU O line that's having
problems in pass protection.
Why Michigan State might win:
Tyrell Sutton. While it's not quite
right to say Northwestern's slide is
because of the loss of its star running
back, who now might redshirt the season,
it certainly hasn't helped the cause.
The Wildcats simply don't have enough
offensive playmakers to overcome a big
MSU run, and while the Spartan offense
has played to the level of its
competition, it has the ability to crank
out a few home runs and some good
scoring drives to put the game away
early. Nevada win and near-miss against
Duke aside, this isn't necessarily a
Wildcat team built for comebacks.
Who to watch: You can forgive
Spartan fans if they're still wondering
why Javon Ringer only got the ball 17
times against Wisconsin, with ten runs
and seven catches. He was untouchable,
cranking out 145 rushing yards and 88
receiving after being able to get a few
open holes, get a head of steam going,
and run downhill. He's shown he can be a
durable workhorse, carrying it 20 times
or more three times this year. Jehuu
Caulcrick needs his carries, but it'll
be Ringer who makes the difference.
What will happen: This isn't your
brother's Spartan team. The running game
is too good, and the pass rush too
strong, for the Spartans to come up with
a clunker against a lousy team.
CFN Prediction:
Michigan State
38 ... Northwestern 17
... Line:
Michigan State -14.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
2
Big 10 Week
6 Predictions, Part 1
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