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Houston
(2-2) at Alabama
(3-2)
3:00 PM ET GamePlan
Why to watch:
After going through a three-game
gauntlet of Arkansas, Georgia, and
Florida State, Alabama gets a relative
break with a visit this week from
Houston. The Tide quickly raised
expectations after beating the Hogs in
the final seconds, but has settled back
closer to reality with tight losses to
the Dawgs and the ‘Noles. ‘Bama will
try to use this week’s visit from the
Cougars to work on its most pressing
issues, namely the play of QB John
Parker Wilson and problems with the
defense and special teams, before
resuming SEC play next week. Houston
continues to be tough to read in its
first season after the graduation of
franchise QB Kevin Kolb. Although his
replacements, Case Keenum and Blake
Joseph, have flashed potential, the
defense has had too many lapses, and
last week’s excruciating 37-35 home loss
to East Carolina could come back to
haunt the defending Conference USA
champs.
Why Houston might win: The
Cougars have enough weapons in its
complex offense to put a dent in an
Alabama defense that’s at least a year
away from being up to Nick Saban’s usual
standards. The Tide has soft spots on
the interior, and has allowed seven
touchdown passes over the last three
games. Houston will counter with
Anthony Alridge, one of the fastest
backs in the country, and an improving
passing game that averages 281 yards
through the air and features standout
receiver Donnie Avery. Keenum hurt his
hand last week, but is expected to play
on Saturday. If he can’t go, there’s
minimal drop-off to Joseph, who went
24-of-29 for 250 yards and two
touchdowns out of the bullpen versus
East Carolina.
Why Alabama might win: The
Houston defense had trouble throughout
September stopping opponents, such as
Alabama, that can move the chains on the
ground or through the air. The Cougars
allowed an average of 34 points in games
with Oregon, Colorado State, and East
Carolina, only having success when it
traveled to lowly Tulane. Look for a
rebound from Wilson, who’ll make good
use of WR D.J. Hall, and a fourth career
100-yard day from freshman RB Terry
Grant. If Houston can’t cut down on its
turnovers and special teams blunders,
the Tide will roll all afternoon.
Who to watch: Alabama LBs Rolando
McClain and Ezekial Knight have been two
of the bright spots on a defense that’s
been just slightly above average. The
team’s top two tacklers, respectively,
display great lateral quickness and a
knack for making plays behind the line
of scrimmage. McClain and Knight will
be keeping a close watch on Alridge to
be sure Houston homerun hitter stays in
the park.
What will happen: While Houston
will move the ball, Alabama will be able
to answer with a diverse offense that’ll
keep the Cougars defense guessing.
Grant will upstage Alridge with 125
yards rushing and a couple of mad dashes
to the end zone.
CFN Prediction:
Alabama 36
... Houston 23
... Line:
Alabama -11
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
2.5
Tulane (1-3) at Army (2-3)
7:00 PM ESPNU
Why to watch:
With a victory this week, Army can get
even after six games for just the second
time in the past decade. Okay, so the
first two wins came against Rhode Island
and Temple, but this is West Point where
a win’s a win. Beating the Owls soundly
a week ago snapped the Cadets’ nine-game
losing streak against FBS opponents and
gave rookie coach Stan Brock his most
complete victory with the Academy.
Although Tulane lost to LSU last
Saturday, the 34-9 final score doesn’t
indicate that the Green Wave played with
passion and actually had a lead just
before halftime. While it got pasted in
the second half by the nation’s No. 2
team, the strong effort was an
indication that first-year head coach
Bob Toledo is making some progress in
his new job. In terms of next level
potential, Tulane RB Matt Forte is a
hidden gem who wouldn’t be so anonymous
playing in a larger venue and with
better blocking.
Why Tulane might win: Led by
Antonio Harris and Reggie Scott, the
Green Wave pass rush has been remarkable
the last two weeks, racking up 11 sacks,
including a half dozen against LSU last
Saturday. Tulane will manhandle a very
limited Army offensive line, forcing
young QB Carson Williams into costly
mistakes. The Cadets have one of the
nation’s worst offenses, averaging just
272 yards and 18 points a game, and have
been careless with the football.
Why Army might win: The Army
defense has been surprisingly effective
this season, allowing just 21 points a
game, while even keeping Boston College
from going wild two weeks ago. Led by
hard-hitting safety Caleb Campbell, the
Cadets will be able to contain a Tulane
attack that has Forte, but not a whole
lot else. The Green Wave is already on
its second quarterback, sophomore
Anthony Scelfo, and is putting up just
12 points a game versus FBS opponents.
Without balance, it’ll struggle to
sustain drives against a
fundamentally-sound Army D that brings
the payload.
Who to watch: The closest thing
the Cadets have to a gamebreaker on
offense is WR Jeremy Trimble, who leads
the team in receptions and is a
dangerous punt returner, averaging 20
yards a return after taking one back for
six last week. He’ll have to remain a
security blanket for Williams, who’s
developing slowly as the starter.
What will happen: Tulane’s first
trip of the year away from the Superdome
will not be a prosperous one. Army will
force a bunch of three-and-outs, winning
a close one on an Owen Tolson field
goal.
CFN Prediction: Army 22 …
Tulane
20 ...
Line: Army -6.5
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
1.5
UAB
(1-3) at Mississippi State
(3-2)
2:30 PM ET
Why to watch:
Although Mississippi State’s three-game
winning streak came to an end in
Columbia last Saturday, the program
continues to take baby steps in
Sylvester Croom’s fourth season in
Starkville. If the Bulldogs are going
to maintain their slim hopes for a sixth
win and bowl eligibility, they’ve got to
dispose of UAB, the last team they’ll be
favored to beat until Ole Miss visits in
the Egg Bowl on Nov. 23. At the rate
quarterbacks are going down, the team
might also want to begin formulating a
Plan C and D at the position. Starter
Michael Henig has a broken hand and his
backup, Josh Riddell, tore knee
ligaments last week, leaving Croom with
a pair of freshmen on this week’s two
deep. While it’s going to be a
painfully long year at UAB, rookie head
coach Neil Callaway likes where his team
is headed, and appreciates the effort
his young kids are putting forth. Since
getting blown out by Michigan State in
the opener, the Blazers have lost to
Florida State by 10, shut out Alcorn
State, and lost to Tulsa by eight.
Considering the turnover from last year,
things could be much worse.
Why UAB might win: There’s no
quit in the Blazers, something that’s
been evident over the last three weeks.
The running game has shown signs of life
in each of the last two games, and
assuming they’re healthy, QBs Sam Hunt
and Joseph Webb are a pair of
dual-threats that can make plays against
the Mississippi State defense. With
third-stringer Wesley Carroll taking
snaps for the Bulldogs, Callaway’s
defense can focus all of its attention
on stopping RB Anthony Dixon without
giving a second thought to the passing
game.
Why Mississippi State might win:
Even without the support of a passing
attack, Dixon should find running room
against a leaky UAB defense that’s
giving up 236 yards a game on the
ground. He’s a horse that’s already run
for 434 yards and six touchdowns, and
has the size to wear down the opposition
in the second half. In the three games
the Blazers have played against FBS
opponents, they’ve allowed over 900
yards on the ground, a flashing red flag
heading into this week’s game.
Who to watch: A Blazer offensive
line that’s allowing its quarterbacks to
be treated like piñatas this season will
get to know Bulldog DE Titus Brown real
early in Saturday’s game. A relentless
pass rusher off the edge, Brown has
eight tackles for loss and an SEC-high
six sacks, numbers that are going to
increase with UAB in town.
What will happen: If the
Mississippi State line does its job,
Dixon will score a couple of times and
surpass his career high of 131 yards
rushing established earlier this year.
In moral victories, UAB will move to
4-1. In the real world, however, the
Blazers will slip to 1-4.
CFN Prediction:
Mississippi State 31 ...
UAB 16
... Line:
Mississippi State -19
Must See Rating: (5 Paris on
Letterman - 1 Singing Bee) ...
1.5
C-USA Fearless Predictions, Week
6,
Part 1 |