This is a major down week for interesting college games, not only in the Pac-10, but around the country. Due to family obligations, this will be a shorter than normal picks column, but we’ll be back to normal length next week.
Arizona @ Oregon St (-3)
(preseason pick: OS)
Thanks to the “geniuses” running sports broadcasting, this potentially interesting game won’t be available anywhere on TV, but everyone will be able to see just how many points USC’s second team can beat Stanford by. Sigh…
Anyway, this could actually be an interesting game, between two teams who have both been up and down, and who both desperately need a win if they are to have any realistic chance of making a bowl game. Of the two teams, Arizona comes into this game much hotter, off of a respectable loss at Cal followed by a shelling of Washington State in the desert last week. The Beavers, by contrast, are reeling, losers of three of their last four (and the win was a AA team), coughing up the ball at a breakneck pace. And to boot, in each of the last two games, they built up a nice early lead and then watched as the other guys made huge rallies to turn winnable games into routs.
On the Other Hand:
Do we really trust the Wildcats on the road, especially in a legitimately hostile environment? This is still the same team that struggled against NAU and lost to both BYU and New Mexico early on. One nice game against an overmatched Cougar run defense does not a good team make. Moreover, their defense has hugely underachieved, and could well be the medicine that a struggling Beaver offense needs.
Bottom Line:
This one won’t be pretty, and it could definitely go either way. However, until and unless Canfield stops throwing nonstop picks, the safe guess will continue to be the other team.
Arizona 21, @ Oregon St 14
Arizona State (-8.5) @ Washington St
(preseason pick: ASU)
Boy, talk about your weird lines. ASU has been rolling over everyone, blasting teams left and right, while the Cougars just got their heads handed to them in two straight games against USC (excusable) and Arizona (not excusable). Certainly, home-field is a good thing, but the way these two teams have been playing, it’s a big surprise to see anything less than double digits.
On the Other Hand:
I’m still not completely sold on Carpenter and the rest of the Sun Devils. Obviously they have talent, but they still have a history of random meltdowns, and now that they’ve gotten in the habit of making boatloads of penalties, that risk can’t have gone down much. Moreover, Alex Brink is still a fantastic quarterback, and you know that he’s going to score an upset or two along the way. Why not here, against a team that will probably be complacent and that hasn’t really been tested yet?
Bottom Line:
The Cougars have a shot if Brink is awesome, the defense tightens up, and ASU gives up some key penalties. That said, the most likely outcome is a comfortable Sun Devil win, and that’s the pick.
Arizona St 38, @ Washington St 20
Notre Dame @ UCLA (-22)
This is just too many points for a Bruin team that is clearly capable of laying an egg and an Irish team that could actually have a pulse.
@ UCLA 31, Notre Dame 14
Stanford @ USC (-41)
(preseason pick: USC)
Let’s face it, the only question here is who will cover. USC is obviously a very good team and Stanford is obviously a bad one, but 41 is still a crazy spread. The Trojans should dominate early, but Stanford will get a few points against the second and third team.
@ USC 45, Stanford 10
National Games of the Week:
Florida @ LSU (-7)
Really? The #1 team in the country gets only 7 points against a Florida team that has struggled against everyone decent they’ve played (aside from a big fourth quarter against the Vols)? To be honest, I’d probably lay 13 on this, so just a touchdown seems almost too easy.
@ LSU 31, Florida 14
Cincinnati @ Rutgers (-4)
So let’s see. Cincy has played great, Rutgers has done squat, and I get points? Sounds good to me.
Cincinnati 31, @ Rutgers 17
Wisconsin @ Illinois (-2.5)
I can definitely see the argument for Illinois, who has been surging, taking down a Badger team that has played a boatload of close games against mediocre teams. Still, the Badgers are the more talented team, and I don’t think that the Illini continue their run this week, especially since they also haven’t beaten anyone all that good.
Wisconsin 27, @ Illinois 24
Bad Lines
Clemson -5
Yes, I know, laying points on Clemson against a decent team during their “meltdown phase” is always dangerous, but I’m just not sold on Virginia Tech yet. This feels three or four points too low.
Syracuse +27
There’s definitely a West Virginia tax here. On the road against a team that has shown occasional signs of life, this is just a bit too high.
Duke +7.5
Duke really doesn’t seem THAT bad, and Wake doesn’t seem to be anywhere near as good as they were last year.
Bowling Green +20
Umm… Bowling Green really doesn’t look like they stink, and BC really doesn’t seem like a blowout sort of team. This is at least a field goal too high.
UAB +18
As inconsistent as Miss St has been, this line basically screams “UAB Stinks!” And the Blazers, while also up and down, aren’t that bad. Two TD’s plus maybe a half a point or so is fair.
UCF -3.5
ECU hasn’t been bad, but Central Florida has been so hot that less than a touchdown seems a bit off to me.
Questions, comments or suggestions? Email me at cfn_ms@hotmail.com
