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Oklahoma State (3-3) at Nebraska
(4-2) 12:30
PM
Why to Watch: There
are coaches on the hot seat, coaches in
lame duck status, and there's Nebraska's
head man Bill Callahan, who just needs a
big win really, really bad. It's one
thing to get blown out at home by USC
(really, it's O.K.), it's another to
need a missed last second field goal to
get by Ball State, and it's a whole
other issue to get destroyed 41-6 by
Missouri in what was likely the key game
of the Huskers' Big 12 season. Last
year, Nebraska was on its way to a good
season, starting off 5-1 before losing a
tight battle against Texas, and then
came the trip to Stillwater. The Cowboys
won 41-29, and while it didn't keep
Nebraska from winning the North, this
year, a win would likely do that, and
get the grumbling Big Red faithful into
a lather. OSU has had an uneven season
so far, and is still trying to figure
out who and what it is. With three home
games ahead, a win in Lincoln could kick
off a nice run, just when Mike Gundy's
team desperately needs it most.
Why Oklahoma State Might Win: So
far, the Husker defense has been
consistently awful against anyone who
can run, and last week got its doors
blown off by a Missouri team that might
provide a glimpse of what's to come. OSU
doesn't throw the ball like the Tigers,
but it likes to use its quarterback a
little bit like MU uses Chase Daniel,
and the running backs are far superior.
The Husker defensive line has been
shoved out of the way far too easily
against the better teams, and this week,
the Cowboys should be able to run at
will. Expect 250 yards on the ground.
Why Nebraska Might Win: If ever
the Husker passing game was going to
step back and let it rip, it would be
this week. Forgetting the 646 yards
allowed to the Texas Tech passing game
to skew the stats, the 116th ranked pass
defense has had major problems against
everyone. When Texas A&M throws for 218
yards, there are problems. With nothing
from the running game since ripping up
Nevada for 413 yards and six touchdowns,
the offense needs to start flowing
through Sam Keller and the passing game.
If the Huskers decide to start bombing
away, OSU might not be able to stop it.
Who to Watch: And the Oklahoma
State quarterback this week will be ...
? Zac Robinson suffered a concussion in
last week's loss to A&M, and while he's
expected to play this week, Bobby Reid
will have to be at the ready, and it
might open up a big can of worms once
again. Reid completed six of nine passes
for 72 yards in relief, and while the
job is still Robinson's, Reid might be
an interesting choice considering he
threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns,
and ran for 61 yards, in last year's win
over the Huskers.
What Will Happen: Which Oklahoma
State will show up? Will it be the one
that ran wild on Texas Tech, or will it
be the one that couldn't get any offense
going against Troy and collapsed against
Texas A&M? Which Nebraska will show up?
The Huskers haven't been sharp over the
past several weeks, and it's about to
get pounded on by the Cowboy ground game
in another rough loss.
CFN Prediction:
Oklahoma State
31 ... Nebraska 28
... Line:
Nebraska -4
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ...
3
Texas A&M
(5-1) at Texas Tech
(5-1) 3:30
PM ABC
Why to Watch: It's
the ultimate contrast in styles, with
Texas Tech, and the nation's leading
passing game, looking for its first real
win of the season against A&M and the
nation's seventh best rushing attack.
The Aggies are 2-0 in Big 12 play, but
those came against the two weakest teams
on the schedule, Baylor and Oklahoma
State, and it could be argued that this
is the easiest date left with road trips
to Nebraska, Oklahoma and Missouri
ahead, along with Kansas and Texas.
However, A&M hasn't won in Lubbock since
1993, and will try for a little revenge
after losing 31-27 to the Red Raiders on
a last minute pass. Texas Tech's best
win so far is against, well, UTEP?! The
offense has been tremendous, with the
pitch-catch combo of Graham Harrell to
Michael Crabtree setting records, and
now it has to face a good team, even if
it doesn't play a whole bunch of
defense.
Why Texas A&M Might Win: Texas Tech
played two teams that could run a little
bit, and UTEP ran for 214 yards and two
touchdowns, and Oklahoma State gashed
the D for 366 yards and four scores.
While this is a quick-strike Red Raider
attack that's able to score in a minute,
making the time of possession not that
big a deal, A&M should be able to
control the tempo by pounding the ball
for well over 250 yards. While this
hasn't always worked for the Aggies, the
offensive line should be able to push
around the Tech defensive front enough
to be effective.
Why Texas Tech Might Win: Texas
A&M might have a good defensive brand
name, the secondary isn't doing much to
stop anyone's passing game. Miami can't
throw against anyone, and it came up
with 275 yards and two touchdowns with
Kyle Wright completing 21 of 26 passes.
Oklahoma State got 259 yards and two
scores, and Fresno State, who hasn't
thrown on anyone, cranked out 260 yards
and three touchdowns. The Aggies have no
pass rush whatsoever, meaning Harrell
should have an hour to find the open
man. If you don't touch Harrell, he'll
complete 80% of his throws and come up
with 500 yards.
Who to Watch: Crabtree is coming
up with an all-timer of a start,
catching three touchdown passes in five
of the first six games, and two in the
sixth, and has double-digit catches in
five of the six games, and eight in a
limited time against Northwestern State.
Of course, A&M knows this and will try
to cover him with everyone but Reveille.
That might mean senior Danny Amendola
will become a key player, and he's had
enough good games to suggest he might be
able to pick up the slack. With four
games with ten catches or more, he's a
perfect number two receiver who can move
the chains and set up the offense so
Crabtree can come up with the score.
What Will Happen: A&M beat
Oklahoma State, and Oklahoma State beat
Tech, so the Aggies should win, right?
Not quite. A&M will pound the ball on
the Red Raiders, but it won't matter.
The lack of a pass rush will kill the
secondary, as Harrell and Crabtree keep
on cranking.
CFN Prediction:
Texas Tech
45 ... Texas A&M 31
... Line:
Texas Tech -8.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ...
3.5
Colorado (4-2) at Kansas State
(3-2) 9:15
PM ESPN2
Why to Watch: Considering
how strong the Big 12 North, outside of
Iowa State, appears to be this year,
there's no margin for error, and there's
especially no extra chances for Kansas
State to give away any home games. Last
week, the Wildcats lost a tough battle
with archrival Kansas, and with just two
home days left after this week, they
must win to have any prayer of sticking
around the title chase. For Colorado,
the 2-0 Big 12 start has upped the
stakes in a big way. There wasn't any
letdown after the program-changing win
over Oklahoma, beating Baylor 43-23, and
with Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska all
coming to Boulder, the Buffs can start
dreaming big if they can come out of
Manhattan with the win. A win would make
it a three-way race between CU, KU and
Missouri for the North.
Why Colorado Might Win: Kansas State
needs the big play to win. Whether it
comes from the special teams, and short
pass turned into a long gain, or on a
turnover, the scores have to come
outside of the conventional way. This
isn't a consistent Wildcat offense, with
an inefficient passing game, no real
rushing attack, and no real ability to
crank out long drives. If Colorado can
limit the mistakes and not turn the ball
over, hardly a given so far this year,
and if it can win the special teams
battle, then the Midwest version of
Virginia Tech will struggle.
Why Kansas State Might Win: The
last three weeks are an aberration; this
Colorado offense isn't all that great.
Miami University and Baylor don't play
defense like Kansas State does, with an
aggressive front that should keep Cody
Hawkins pressing all game long. Colorado
has done a great job in pass protection
so far, but the Wildcat scheme is funky
enough to manufacture sacks and pressure
from different angles. Offensively, QB
Josh Freeman should have plenty of time
to work behind an offensive line that,
outside of a few series against Auburn,
is standing on its head in pass
protection. Colorado hits like a ton of
bricks, but it doesn't generate too much
pressure.
Who to Watch: This might be a
passing of the torch from the 2006 best
defensive player in the Big 12, Kansas
State's Ian Campbell, to this year's
best player, Colorado LB Jordon Dizon.
The undersized Dizon appears hell-bent
to be in on every tackle possible,
leading the nation in stops, and leading
in solo tackles by a wide margin. With
the pass rush struggling so far, he's
being used more to get to the
quarterback, but his role this week will
be to stop the run. Meanwhile, Campbell
is still trying to find his way in a new
role as a hybrid of linebacker and
defensive end. He's not making nearly as
many tackles as last year, but he's come
up with a few big plays over the last
two weeks, with an interception for a
score against Texas and a sack against
Kansas.
What Will Happen: Expect a good
defensive battle with turnovers being
the difference. Kansas State will force
them; Colorado won't.
CFN Prediction:
Kansas State 24 ...
Colorado 20
... Line:
Kansas State -5.5
Must See Rating: (5 Hideki
Matsui's "collection" - 1 The
Heartbreak Kid) ...
3.5
Big 12 Week
Seven Predictions, Part 1
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